NCAA Tournament bubble: Latest stock up, stock down, conference breakdown

As the season moves forward and March approaches quickly, the NCAA Tournament bubble sees a variety of teams headed opposite directions. With more game-changing results over the past week, the shape of the bubble continues to shift and slowly shrink toward a field of 68 teams.

Plenty have teams have all but clinched their NCAA Tournament berth at this point in the season, but others have left a lot to be done in a short amount of time. The bubble is full of teams with plenty opportunities ahead, but few chances they can let slip away.

At this point in the season, the line between bubble teams and teams considered ‘in the field’ can fluctuate from week to week – generally shrinking as time goes along.

For now, teams in the conversation for a 7-seed or better are generally considered safe, while teams just below on the 8-line and 9-line could potentially be lumped in with the bubble teams which need more good results over the next month.

Check out the latest On3 Bracketology update from 2/18 here.

Here are the teams who have seen their stock go up and down, as well as a conference-by-conference breakdown of the teams still in the NCAA Tournament picture.

Stock Up

Virginia Tech (52)

While other the ACC teams in the “work to do” category fell off a cliff with recent losing streaks, Virginia Tech took the opportunity to bounce back with one of the most impressive wins of the season against in-state rival Virginia. The only question now is whether it did more to help them, or hurt their opponent on the bubble.

The Hokies have found new life with a massive leap in the NET rankings to help highlight the 5-9 record in the first two quadrants. They are also 10-2 in the bottom half, leaving them just enough room to sneak in with a dominant run over the next few weeks.

Ohio State (65)

Ohio State was all but dead in the NCAA Tournament conversation just a week ago, even cutting ties with head coach Chris Holtmann. However, the interim coach bump gave them just enough juice to secure a game-changing upset win over Purdue and vault them back into the picture for now.

The Buckeyes do not carry a great chance of success, especially given their form before the upset, but that is the type of data point which wins arguments on Selection Sunday. They now sit at 3-10 in Q1 and Q2, while having a 12-1 record in the bottom two quadrants.

Nebraska (47)

Nebraska has done well to build up an NCAA Tournament resume and took care of business this week against two Big Ten opponents off the bubble. The big margins helped move the computer numbers up enough to enter the mix as a real NCAA Tournament candidate.

The Cornhuskers remain undefeated outside the top two quadrants, along with three Q1 wins so far. They have winnable games the rest of the season, including a potential Q1 opportunity on the road against Ohio State.

Boise State (35), Nevada (43)

Boise State and Nevada both get a boost on the bubble this week, just a week after the latter featured on this list. The Mountain West as a whole is on the rise this week thanks to the NCAA Tournament selection committee’s Top 16 reveal and what can be read between the lines.

SDSU featuring as one of the Top 16 teams helps bring up stock for all the teams in the conference, especially the six teams currently in the picture for a bid. The perceived strength of the league is at an all-time high, helping give Boise State and Nevada the nod in the field.

Stock Down

Colorado (42), Utah (46)

Colorado and Utah have both let opportunities slip away over recent weeks in the Pac-12 schedule which does not allow much room for losses. Both teams split a series against the schools in Los Angeles, which are both struggling and do very little to help the resume.

The Buffaloes and Utes get a head-to-head matchup which could leave one in the projected NCAA Tournament field and the other scrambling to get back in the picture. Neither team has fallen totally out of the picture, but things are getting dicey for the conference.

Indiana State (31)

Indiana State climbed into the AP Poll Top 25 last week and then dropped two bad games within the MVC schedule. It was not only a knock to hurt their national perception, it took them much closer to the bubble than they would like to be.

Now with five losses on the resume, the Sycamores added a Q4 loss to an otherwise clean slate. Even though the second loss was classified as Q2, it dropped the record in the first two quadrants to 4-4.

St. John’s (49)

St. John’s continues to drop down the board and looks like they will not be able to right the ship in time for the NCAA Tournament under Rick Pitino. The Hall of Fame coach has even aired out his issues with the season in front of reporters over recent games and started pitching the future.

The Red Storm is now 14-12 overall and 5-11 in the first two quadrants. Despite only holding one Q3 loss this season, they are struggling in the Big East with three straight losses and a 2-8 record over the past 10.

Conference breakdown

ACC
In the field: Clemson (28), Duke (16), North Carolina (10),
On the bubble: Virginia (48), Virginia Tech (52), Wake Forest (26)
More to do: Pittsburgh (56)

Big 12
In the field: Baylor (13), BYU (11), Houston (1), Iowa State (8), Kansas (17), Oklahoma (40), Texas Tech (27)
On the bubble: Cincinnati (39), TCU (37), Texas (38)
More to do: N/A

Big Ten
In the field: Illinois (12), Michigan State (24), Purdue (2), Wisconsin (21)
On the bubble: Nebraska (47), Northwestern (57)
More to do: Iowa (62), Ohio State (65)

SEC
In the field: Alabama (5), Auburn (7), Florida (29), Kentucky (20), Tennessee (6), South Carolina (58)
On the bubble: Mississippi State (41), Ole Miss (67), Texas A&M (50)
More to do: N/A

Pac-12
In the field: Arizona (3)
On the bubble: Colorado (42), Utah (46), Washington State (32)
More to do: Oregon (63)

MWC
In the field: Colorado State (25), New Mexico (23), SDSU (18), Utah State (30)
On the bubble: Boise State (35), Nevada (43)
More to do: N/A

Big East
In the field: Creighton (9), Marquette (14), UConn (4)
On the bubble: Providence (60), Villanova (34)
More to do: Butler (61). Seton Hall (64), St. John’s (49)

Others
In the field: Dayton (19), FAU (33), St. Mary’s (15)
On the bubble: Drake (44), Gonzaga (22), Grand Canyon (45), Indiana State (31)
More to do: Princeton (53), SMU (36)