NCAA Tournament bubble: Stock up, stock down, conference breakdown entering March

With March just days away, the NCAA Tournament bubble sees a many teams headed up and down the board. With more upset results shaping the college basketball conversation over the past week, each team knows what they must do in order to get the selection committee’s attention.

Plenty have teams have all but clinched their NCAA Tournament berth at this point in the season, but others have left a lot to be done in a short amount of time. The bubble is full of teams with plenty opportunities ahead, but few chances they can let slip away as March Madness starts.

At this point in the season, the line between bubble teams and teams considered ‘in the field’ can fluctuate from week to week – generally shrinking as time goes along.

For now, teams in the conversation for an 8-seed or better are generally considered safe, while teams just below on 9-line could potentially be lumped in with the bubble teams which need more good results over the next month. As the bubble shrinks, the biggest threat sometimes comes from bid thieves from mid-majors once the conference tournaments start.

Here are the teams who have seen their stock go up and down, as well as a conference-by-conference breakdown of the teams still in the NCAA Tournament picture.

Stock Up

Providence (XX), Seton Hall (XX)

The Big East bubble picture looks much better than it did just a few weeks ago. Providence and Seton Hall have moved up the board and now sit firmly in the conversation for a spot in the Last Four In. A recent string of good results paired with losses by teams around them has helped catapult them up the NET rankings and make their resume competitive with other teams.

Providence is now 8-9 in the first two quadrants, with no losses in the bottom half and sits inside the Top 60 of the NET rankings. Seton Hall now has five Q1 wins and an 8-7 record in the top two, also bringing a No. 61 NET ranking to the table.

Kansas State (73)

Kansas State had all but left the NCAA Tournament bubble conversation with a losing streak over recent weeks, but a win over BYU did just enough to make the resume worth mentioning again. Any team which has three more Q1 opportunities to finish the regular season and the Big 12 Tournament is worth starting a conversation.

The Wildcats currently have seven wins in the first two quadrants, including three Q1 wins already. Only one Q3 loss hurts the resume but 11 overall losses has left a small margin of error given the poor computer numbers they hold.

South Florida (85)

South Florida might not seem like an NCAA Tournament bubble team at first glance, but no team in college basketball has put together a more impressive run over the past two months. They now lead the American Athletic Conference with a first-year head coach and have turned a corner.

The Bulls have no Q1 games on the resume, win or loss. A 5-3 record in Q2 and no losses in Q3 put them in a good conversation but a pair of Q4 losses hurt them. However, on the other side, those losses both came in November.

Memphis (79)

Memphis was once a Top 10 team in the AP Poll and had a chance to become a Top Four seed, now they are trying to make their way back onto the bubble after falling completely out of the conversation. A big skid in the middle of the conference schedule could prove too much to overcome, but against FAU over the weekend, they looked like the contender they did to start the year.

The Tigers have a 6-5 record in Q1 and Q2 including two Q1 wins. The three losses in the bottom half are hurting the overall resume, but both of their Q3 losses could easily become Q2 losses based on the next week of results.

Stock Down

Grand Canyon (58)

Grand Canyon looked like a team with an at-large case based on their computer numbers and resume, but back-to-back losses in Q3 and Q4 have all but destroyed those chances and made the WAC Conference Tournament important for their NCAA chances.

The Lopes are 3-2 in the top two quadrants and previously had no losses in the bottom half. The recent losing streak has changed things and moved them back into automatic bid conversations.

Cincinnati (45)

The losses have started to add up for Cincinnati over recent weeks as Q1 opportunities slip away through the Big 12 schedule. A recent loss against Oklahoma State too helped drop them well under .500 in conference play and dropped them out of the projected field.

The Bearcats still have a pair of Q1 opponents let on the schedule for the regular season and the Big 12 Conference Tournament to pick up more resume-defining wins. They are currently 5-10 in Q1 and Q2 with a pair of losses in Q3.

Indiana State (31), Drake (46)

Indiana State suffered losses earlier in the month which brought them down into the bubble conversation, and now Drake has slipped up and fallen to another Missouri Valley Conference opponent which hurt the resume. This now looks like it will certainly be a one-bid league.

Indiana State carries a 5-4 record in Q1 and Q2 and has just the one bad loss in Q4. Their computer numbers help keep them above the line regardless of the conference standings. Drake is 5-4 in the first two quadrants with a pair of Q3 losses but lower NET rankings than their rival.

Conference breakdown

ACC
In the field: Duke (11), North Carolina (9), Clemson (23)
On the bubble: Pittsburgh (49), Virginia (47), Wake Forest (27)
More to do: Virginia Tech (60)

Big 12
In the field: Baylor (14), BYU (10), Houston (1), Iowa State (8), Kansas (17), Oklahoma (40), TCU (38), Texas Tech (42)
On the bubble: Cincinnati (45), Texas (33)
More to do: Kansas State (73)

Big Ten
In the field: Illinois (16), Purdue (2), Wisconsin (22)
On the bubble: Michigan State (24), Nebraska (41), Northwestern (52)
More to do: Iowa (59)

SEC
In the field: Alabama (6), Auburn (7), Florida (28), Kentucky (19), Mississippi State (30), South Carolina (48), Tennessee (5)
On the bubble: Ole Miss (75), Texas A&M (57)
More to do: N/A

Pac-12
In the field: Arizona (4), Washington State (36)
On the bubble: Colorado (32), Utah (53)
More to do: Oregon (62)

MWC
In the field: SDSU (18), Utah State (35)
On the bubble: Boise State (26), Colorado State (29), Nevada (39), New Mexico (25)
More to do: N/A

Big East
In the field: Creighton (13), Marquette (12), UConn (3)
On the bubble: Providence (54), Seton Hall (61), Villanova (34)
More to do: Butler (63), St. John’s (44)

Others
In the field: Dayton (20), St. Mary’s (15)
On the bubble: Drake (46), FAU (37), Gonzaga (21), Indiana State (31)
More to do: Grand Canyon (58), Memphis (79), Princeton (51), SMU (43), South Florida (85)