Buyer Beware: Transfer QBs in danger of losing starting jobs without strong Week 3 showings
In the last two cycles (2023, 2024), the transfer portal quarterback market has been as volatile as investing in Bitcoin. Fan bases across the country always believe their teams have struck gold when they land a new quarterback addition — only to realize many of these journeymen have a buyer-beware tag for good reason.
Guys like Miami’s Cam Ward, Georgia Tech’s Haynes King and Syracuse’s Kyle McCord have been unequivocal success stories, while Louisville’s Tyler Shough, Arkansas’ Taylen Green and Vandy’s Diego Pavia have at least flashed interesting upside.
They represent an outlier camp, though.
Dillon Gabriel has underwhelmed thus far at Oregon. KJ Jefferson (UCF), Grayson McCall (NC State), Dequan Finn (Baylor), Cade McNamara (Iowa) and Tyler Van Dyke (Wisconsin) have all been bad thus far this season, too — though none seem in imminent danger of losing their starting jobs.
That’s not the case for a host of other 2023, 2024 transfers, whose teams are already having uncomfortable conversations about their starting quarterback just two weeks into the 2024 season. If things don’t change — many or all — of these quarterbacks could get benched before the first official day of fall if they don’t show significant signs of progress in Week 3.
Who am I talking about? Here are five transfer quarterbacks who could face a make-or-break Saturday in Week 3:
Riley Leonard, Notre Dame
Talk about an uncomfortable conversation. Marcus Freeman must determine if the juice is worth the squeeze with Notre Dame’s big-money’d transfer quarterback — because the Irish might have a lemon on their hands.
Leonard is a supreme athlete, but the Duke transfer has regressed as passer (three touchdowns in the last two seasons, zero completions over 20 yards so far in 2024) and decision-maker. It was easy to write-off his struggles reading Texas A&M’s defense in Week 1 because it was Texas A&M. Then it happened again — only worse — against Northern Illinois. Now Leonard, who is averaging just 5.2 yards per attempt at 61% passing, is battling a labrum injury when accuracy issues were already a major issue.
The Irish have no margin for error the rest of the season, so if Riley struggles again this weekend against Purdue, Freeman may have to wave the white flag and make the very difficult decision to bench a marquee transfer portal addition in favor of Steve Angeli.
Brock Vandagriff, Kentucky
It’s difficult to put into words just how badly Vandagriff played against South Carolina last weekend. Sure, he was under siege like it was the Battle of the Alamo (UK’s OL is awful), but at the same time, the Georgia transfer essentially brought a couple of toothpicks to a musket fight. He was 3-of-10 passing for 30 yards with an atrocious pick-six. He showed zero pocket awareness and had a QBR of 1.2, which is a number so low I’ve never seen it before. Naturally, that ranked dead last among all starters in Week 2.
Vandagriff was seen a major upgrade from Devin Leary, another QB portal bust in 2023, and yet Vandagriff was so unplayable against South Carolina that Mark Stoops benched the ballyhooed transfer for Gavin Wimsatt (Yes, that Gavin Wimsatt from Rutgers, who was also terrible, going 3 of 7 with a pick). What if the rumors out of Athens were true that Vandagriff was running with the 3s behind Carson Beck and Gunner Stockton? What if Stoops pushed the chips in on the wrong transfer quarterback again? With a game against his former Bulldogs teammates this weekend, it’s probably not going to get any better for Vandagriff — and that’s with Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas and Louisville still to come, too.
Payton Thorne, Auburn
The good vibes lasted exactly one week on the Plains, as the most optimistic Auburn faithful were dishing out all sorts of “I told you so’s” after Thorne had four touchdowns and over 300 yards in the Tigers’ 73-3 splattering of Alabama A&M. Then the Cal game happened, and Hugh Freeze was openly pondering a potential QB-change.
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Throne looked like a wide-eyed true freshman against a beat-up Bears team, throwing four interceptions on just 16 attempts. He also missed a wide-open touchdown throw to Penn State transfer Keandre Lambert-Smith and botched a snap for a big loss. Woof, right? But it was actually worse than that as another pick-six was negated due to a penalty. Freeze’s decision to back Thorne so vehemently this offseason never made much sense — especially with all the other upgrades Auburn made to its roster to surround the quarterback. Yet now just two weeks into the season, Freeze is already backtracking his support for Thorne and talking about minimizing the playbook.
If Thorne has issues against one of the worst pass defenses in the country this weekend (New Mexico ranks 130th nationally), then I don’t see how Freeze doesn’t give one of the young guys (Holden Geriner, Hank Brown or Walker White) a serious look when the Tigers open SEC play against Arkansas.
Graham Mertz, Florida
Of all the aforementioned situations, the quarterback conundrum in Gainesville is by far the easiest to explain. A veteran starter may get Wally Pipp’d for a 5-star freshman who could save the head coach’s job.
Mertz was actually better than anticipated for Florida in 2023, and then he suffered a concussion in a poor performance against Miami in the 2024 opener. Freshman phenom DJ Lagway then provided a spark (456 passing yards) in an otherwise hapless Gators performance against FCS Samford.
Lagway is the future at Florida, but much-maligned head coach Billy Napier needs him to be the present, too if he has any hopes of saving his job. Only, Napier insisted this week that Mertz remains the starter before Saturday’s pivotal game against Texas A&M. Lagway will see snaps, but Mertz is QB1.
His grasp on the starting gig looks tenuous at best, though. Mertz does a nice job taking care of the football and making quick reads, but he provides almost nothing in the vertical passing game and limits Florida’s ability to produce explosive plays. Lagway is the exact opposite. Lagway has a howitzer, and his arm has already produced five completions over 40 yards — when Mertz hit nine such throws the entire 2023 season. It’s a matter of when, not if, there’s a QB change at Florida — one that could become official as soon as after this weekend.
DJ Uiagalelei, Florida State
Among ACC starters, Uiagalelei has the second-worst completion percentage (58%), the second-lowest yards per attempt (6.7), the fewest touchdown passes (one) and the worst quarterback rating. I don’t think that’s how Mike Norvell drew it up in the offseason when he brought in the ex-Clemson and Oregon State transfer. The Seminoles aren’t using Uiagalelei in the run game at all, which is quite the decision but alas.
Norvell has been candid about the ‘Noles offensive struggles in two games (in addition to Uiagalelei being bad, the OL is terrible and the run game ranks No. 128th nationally) but he hasn’t quite opened the door on benching Uiagalelei just yet. Will that still be the case if Uiagalelei has another shrug (or worse) game against Memphis this Saturday? If the Noles lose to move to 0-3 there is zero reason not to turn the keys to redshirt freshman Brock Glenn, who may or may not be the future. But if they handle their business and Uiagalelei still looks the same, then why not turn to the youngster against Cal and SMU, either?