Caleb Downs: Latest On3 RPM with 5-star 2023 safety

With Signing Day in the rearview mirror, the On3 football recruiting database has flipped to the 2023 class. With that in mind, it’s the perfect time to check in to see where the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine sits with the nation’s top junior recruits, including five-star safety Caleb Downs.

Caleb Downs

Hoschton (Ga.) Mill Creek
On3 Consensus: No. 8
On3 NIL Valuation: $26K
Status: Uncommitted
On3 RPM: Georgia 32.7%, Alabama 30.9%, Clemson 19%, Notre Dame 9.7%, North Carolina 3.4%
On3 Intel: Caleb Downs has sought key counsel from those near him throughout the early part of the recruiting process.

He’s leaning on his older brother, North Carolina wide receiver, Josh Downs, for information on coaches he previously dealt with. Plus, Downs’ father, Gary Downs, is a former NFL player and a recruiting coordinator and running back coach at East Tennessee State.

According to On3’s Chad Simmons, Alabama pulled ahead slightly for Downs late in the fall. But one of his connections with the Crimson Tide, cornerbacks coach Jay Valai, recently left for Oklahoma. Simmons says that combined with an impressive visit to Georgia appears to have put the Dawgs ahead at this point. Clemson’s chances with Downs also shot up 10% after his Jan. 29 visit to campus. He called that visit “eye-opening,” according to On3’s Joseph Hastings.

That reporting is confirming what the On3 RPM is projecting at this point.

However, more spring visits are on the docket. You can’t count out Ohio State, Oklahoma, Notre Dame and even North Carolina. Not only is his brother there, but his uncle Dre Bly, is one of Tar Heels’ top recruiters.

Caleb Downs is special

Caleb Downs currently ranks as the No. 8 player in the country, according to the On3 Consensus, a complete and equally weighted industry-generated average that utilizes all four major recruiting media companies.

He also ranks as the No. 1 safety in the country and the top-ranked player in Georgia.

Caleb Downs currently has an On3 NIL Valuation of $26,000, which ranks 236th in the On3 High School Football NIL Rankings. The NIL valuation does not act as a tracker of the value of NIL deals an athlete has completed to date. It rather signifies an athlete’s value at a certain moment in time.

What is the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine?

The On3 RPM debuted to the public in December. The On3 engineering group teamed up with Spiny.ai to create the industry’s first algorithm and machine learning-based product to predict where athletes will attend college. 

It factors in machine learning, expert predictions, social sentiment, visits, and historical trends. However, expert predictions are still a big piece of the RPM equation.