Can Penn State end its big-game shortcomings by punching above its weight class to upset Michigan?

In an ode to the great cinematic character Lone Starr, so Penn State, here we are again. For the first time, for the last time?

Once again, the Nittany Lions find themselves on a national stage with an opportunity to make a statement. 

They’re ranked in the Top 10, sitting at 8-1 with a one-score loss to No. 1 Ohio State.  They still have hopes of a Big Ten Championship and a College Football Playoff berth, but until James Franklin’s team proves it can punch itself out of its Tier II weight class in the conference, there’s little evidence to believe Penn State’s current ceiling is anything north of that. 

A win over victory over No. 3 Michigan in Fox’s “Big Noon Saturday” spotlight would change everything for Penn State’s program.

It would validate the slow and steady process by Franklin, launching a potential special season where all the team’s goals remain intact. It would also remove, at least for the time being, a massive albatross off Franklin’s shoulders as a guy who can’t beat Penn State’s Big Ten East big brothers (just 4-15 vs Ohio State and Michigan).

Much has been made of Franklin’s ghastly 3-16 record against Top 10 teams, and while it’s fair for Franklin’s defenders to note his teams have almost exclusively been an underdog in such matchups, the only way to flip those scales is to start winning some of those games. 

Just ask Michigan and head coach Jim Harbaugh. 

The Wolverines were treading water as a perennial program before they finally upset Ohio State the last two seasons. Now — sign-stealing scandal and all — they look like the most dominant team in the country so far in 2023. 

So Saturday is an opportunity for Penn State to put all its big-game shortcomings behind them. 

This is Franklin’s most talented team to date in Happy Valley. Manny Diaz presides over a loaded defense and quarterback Drew Allar has the highest upside of any quarterback Franklin has had at Penn State. 

And yet, the Nittany Lions might not hold a single positional advantage against the Wolverines. Michigan unquestionably has the better coach, quarterback, offensive and defensive lines and secondary. I’ll be kind and say it’s a push at tailback between the two teams, and as good as Curtis Jacobs, Abdul Carter and Kobe King are at linebacker, it isn’t like Junior Colson, Michael Barrett or Ernest Hausmann are slouches. 

Penn State hasn’t beaten Michigan since the COVID-shortened 2020 season, and while it’s possible the Wolverines will be overcome by a slew of off-field distractions Saturday, the more likely case is they remain a team galvanized against the rest of the college football world. 

That’s simply another hurdle for Franklin & Co., to overcome. 

In the loss to Ohio State, Penn State never truly threatened the Buckeyes. Allar was skittish and inconsistent, and a lack of aggressiveness on Franklin’s part — both offensively and with in-game management — never gave the Nittany Lions a real chance to spur the upset. 

That can’t happen again on Saturday. Obviously, Allar must play better against the Wolverines. The defense can’t get untimely penalties, either. 

Still, it all centers around Franklin and his staff’s game plan. Will they be aggressive offensively? Are they physical enough to stop Michigan’s ground game that rolled up over 400 yards and four touchdowns against them last season?

They have to coach to win. Not simply keep the game close for optics sake. 

Earlier this week, Harbaugh invited Ric Flair to practice. Right now, Michigan is on front street embracing its inner heel, but it’s Franklin team that should heed Flair’s famous advice: “To be the man, you’ve got to beat the man.”

“I definitely feel like this is a statement game,” PSU star cornerback Kalen King said. 

“A lot of people around the country believe that Penn State is not really able to take the next step. I feel like this game is the perfect opportunity for us to go out and prove ourselves against a powerhouse team like Michigan. This is definitely a statement game for us.”

Added pass rusher Adisa Isaac, “We know what’s at stake. We’re just trying to keep a level head. … Obviously, they’re Michigan and whatever. But I’m not really focusing on who they are. I’m just trying to do my job and focus on us.”

Can Penn State finally deliver a knockout blow and take down a Big Ten heavyweight, or will the Nittany Lions remain the team that cries wolf?

We’ll find out a high noon this weekend.