College Football Betting Picks Week 10: Can Penn State pull the upset against Ohio State?

The next biggest game in the Big Ten comes this week in Happy Valley. Meanwhile, the new darlings of the SEC go on the road for a potential trap game. Let’s pick the games of week 10…

Ohio State at Penn State (+3.5) Total: 47.5

Andy: The Buckeyes have a left tackle problem after losing starter Josh Simmons to injury (for the season) against Oregon and then losing backup Zen Michalski in the fourth quarter against Nebraska. If Michalski can’t play, then Ohio State will have to go with a reshuffled line against one of the best defenses on its schedule. Meanwhile, we’re still not sure if Penn State QB Drew Allar will be healthy enough to play. Backup Beau Pribula added a dimension to the run game against Wisconsin, but could Ohio State force him into a situation where he has to throw to win?
The pick: PENN STATE TO COVER

Ari: Ohio State was supposed to be the deepest, best team in the country this year. In its last two games — a loss to Oregon and a near-loss to Nebraska — the Buckeyes have been anything but that. Now they have an offensive line issue going into Happy Valley against a really good defensive front. Penn State is really good this year, so I’ll happily take the points.
The pick: PENN STATE TO COVER

Florida vs. Georgia (-16.5) Total: 52.5

Florida has looked much better in recent weeks, pushing Tennessee to the brink in Knoxville and pounding Kentucky in Gainesville. Freshman QB D.J. Lagway looked great in his first SEC start. But Saturday we find out if Florida’s offensive line has really improved against a defense that tortured a good Texas offensive line. Gators coach Billy Napier has a chance to save his job if his team can prove it belongs on the field with the next few opponents. But what fresh hell will Georgia’s Kirby Smart unleash on a freshman QB after two weeks of prep? Enough to win, but maybe not enough to keep the Gators from sneaking through the back door?
The pick: FLORIDA TO COVER

Ari: Florida is feeling really good about itself right now, especially because of the way D.J. Lagway has performed. He’s a future star. But are we sure that all the feel good vibes are a result of Florida fixing the issues that have put it in this position? Georgia is a team that exposes those issues.
The pick: GEORGIA TO COVER 

Texas A&M at South Carolina (+3.5) Total: 46.5

Andy: This will be an excellent test of Texas A&M coach Mike Elko’s ability to keep his team on an even keel after a big win. Williams-Brice Stadium will be rocking, and South Carolina’s defense is excellent at disrupting opposing quarterbacks. But Texas A&M’s defense is even better at it, and that may be the difference.
The pick: TEXAS A&M TO COVER

Ari: The Texas A&M from the second half of the LSU game is one of the best teams in the country. Though going to South Carolina is undoubtedly going to be a test, this seems like the point in the season where the Aggies take off. That’s especially true if Marcel Reed starts.
The Pick: TEXAS A&M TO COVER

Kentucky at Tennessee (-15.5) Total: 44.5

Andy: Even before Kentucky’s recent meltdown, the Josh Heupel-era Volunteers were a terrible styles-make-fights matchup for the Wildcats. But given what we’ve seen the past few weeks, this could get ugly quickly.
The pick: TENNESSEE TO COVER

Ari: Kentucky has been a confusing team for much of the season, but now the Wildcats just seem cooked. Tennessee had yet another bye week and had plenty of time to regroup following an emotional win over Alabama. I expect Nico Iamaleava to solve his overthrowing issues and Tennessee’s defense to cook.
The pick: TENNESSEE TO COVER

Oregon at Michigan (+15.5) Total: 45.5

In terms of helmet games, this is catnip. But the three-score spread feels about right given Michigan’s quarterback roulette and Oregon’s improvement as the season has progressed.
The pick: OREGON TO COVER

Ari: Michigan is probably feeling pretty good about itself after finding a way to win a rivalry game, but the Wolverines offense is a disaster. This was supposed to be one of the games of the year coming into the season, but outside of the Ducks laying an egg and turning it over a bunch, I don’t see how the Wolverines score enough to cover this spread.
The pick: OREGON TO COVER

Vanderbilt at Auburn (-6.5) Total: 48.5

Andy: The Tigers finally broke through Saturday, beating Kentucky for their first SEC win. Meanwhile, Vandy scared the hell out of Texas. Commodores QB Diego Pavia won at Auburn last year as New Mexico State’s QB. He’s bringing more talented teammates with him this time. 
The pick: VANDERBILT TO COVER

Ari: If you take away Auburn’s crippling interceptions this year, you have a really functional football team. Though most of the country trusts Diego Pavia over Payton Thorne — I do, too — Auburn has better players from top to bottom than Vanderbilt. The spread seems high, but if Auburn runs the football and avoids turnovers, it can win by 7.
The pick: AUBURN TO COVER

Ole Miss at Arkansas (+6.5) Total: 55.5

Andy: Ole Miss played with its food for a half against Oklahoma before finally just sacking Jackson Arnold into oblivion. The Rebels will have to do that to the much more mobile Taylen Green, or this could be the end of their College Football Playoff hopes. Arkansas shut down a (possibly better?) version of this offense against Tennessee, and if receiver Tre Harris can’t play, the Rebels still have to prove someone else can step in as Jaxson Dart’s top target.
The pick: ARKANSAS TO COVER

Ari: Arkansas is much better than people think this year. But the blowout loss to LSU keeps hanging over my head. Ole Miss has been left for dead after dropping two games this season, but I’m not 100 percent convinced the Rebels are out of the College Football Playoff race. I think this is an opportunity for Ole Miss to get back into the discussion.
The pick: OLE MISS TO COVER

Pittsburgh at SMU (-7.5) Total: 60.5

Andy: This line feels surprising considering Pitt is undefeated and SMU needed an Olympics-level hurdle to block a kick to survive at Duke. But prior to Syracuse QB Kyle McCord’s meltdown last week, Pitt had lived fairly dangerously against its better opponents. Meanwhile, SMU may have just survived its clunker.
The pick: SMU TO COVER

Ari: SMU needed a heroic field goal block to force overtime and escape UCF with a win. Though that game is concerning, this game is exactly what Mustangs supporters have been craving for so many years. SMU has a chance to win a power conference game and set itself up to maybe make the ACC Championship Game in year one in the conference. Two scores at home? Give me the Mustangs.
The pick: SMU TO COVER 

Wisconsin at Iowa (-3.5) Total: 42.5

Andy: Vegas still hasn’t caught up to the Hawkeyes, who hit the over by themselves against Northwestern. It’s a simple equation. Better offense + worse defense = OVER.
The pick: OVER 42.5

Ari: This is an Iowa over podcast. It keeps hitting.
The pick: OVER 42.5

Texas Tech at Iowa State (-14.5) Total: 57.5

Andy: Texas Tech got torched by Baylor and gagged away a huge lead against TCU, so getting bulldozed at Iowa State should make sense. But this number feels high. The last time we saw the Cyclones, they were handing points to a UCF defense that hasn’t really challenged anyone else. Iowa State needs to play a clean game to stay undefeated. But the Cyclones can do that and still not cover this giant spread.
The pick: TEXAS TECH TO COVER

Ari: Iowa State, in my opinion, is going to make it to the Big 12 title game as an undefeated team. They are legitimately one of my favorite teams to watch this year. But this spread, against a functional Texas Tech team, seems pretty high. The Red Raiders have given up some points this year, but in a game that was supposed to help decide the Big 12 race, three scores is a little too much.
The pick: TEXAS TECH TO COVER

Indiana at Michigan State (+6.5) Total: 50.5

Andy: For some reason, linemakers still don’t want to believe in the Hoosiers. Their smallest margin of victory this season is 14 — last week against Washington — and yet they still can’t be a touchdown favorite against a less-than-stellar conference foe. If Indiana’s defense plays like it has the past two weeks, the Spartans will struggle to finish drives just like they did against Michigan. On the other side, Indiana’s offense is much more functional than Michigan’s. 
The pick: INDIANA TO COVER

Ari: Indiana has won every game this year by 14 points or more. The entire country seems to be waiting for the Hoosiers to slip up, but maybe it’s just time to acknowledge they are a really, really good football team. Michigan State has had its moments this year, but Indiana is a Playoff team. Legitimately.
The pick: INDIANA TO COVER

Louisville at Clemson (-12.5) Total: 60.5

Andy: Since getting blown out by Georgia, Clemson has won six consecutive games by a combined score of 291-127. But those six opponents have a combined record of 18-29. The road gets tougher these next three weeks, starting with a Cardinals team that has three losses that all came in competitive games against teams with a combined record of 22-2. This might be a pure regression to the mean game.
The pick: LOUISVILLE TO COVER

Ari: Clemson is exactly who I thought they’d be after losing to Georgia. This is an 11-win team in this ACC who doesn’t scare any of the national title contenders. The Tigers, though, are still a much better football team than Louisville. They play good defense and the offense seems much improved.
The pick: CLEMSON TO COVER