CBS Sports expert gives six-pack of Week 10 college football predictions

On Thursday, CBS Sports expert Tom Fornelli released six predictions against the spread ahead of Week 10 of the college football season. His picks this week feature a pair of big SEC contests, including a pivotal game between No. 13 Auburn and No. 14 Texas A&M.

Fornelli is 33-21 with his picks on the season, including a near-perfect 5-1 in Week 9. Below is his full list of college football predictions for Week 10.

No. 13 Auburn at No. 14 Texas A&M (Under 49.5)

Why the over/under is so high on this game is quite puzzling. A&M is a top 5 defense in the SEC, while Auburn has improved a lot in recent weeks. This matchup does represent an opportunity for both schools to move up the SEC West standings, however, so maybe the offenses will be extra motivated. But Fornelli isn’t betting on it in his Week 10 college football predictions.

“Do you trust either of these offenses right now?” he wrote. “To Zach Calzada’s credit, he’s improved seemingly every week as Texas A&M’s starting quarterback after a slow start. The crescendo was the win over Alabama, but he’s continued putting up solid numbers against Missouri and South Carolina.”

Final Score Prediction: Texas A&M 27, Auburn 20 | Under 49.5

No. 3 Michigan State at Purdue (Under 53.5)

Coming off of their biggest win of the season against rival Michigan, the Spartans will look to stay unbeaten against Purdue. Running back Kenneth Walker III propelled himself to the top of the Heisman race with a 197-yard, five-touchdown performance. The Boilermakers boast perhaps the best receiver in the Big Ten in David Bell (786 yards, four touchdowns). Still, don’t expect a ton of offense in this one, as Fornelli points out in his Week 10 college football predictions

“When I look at this matchup, I see a result that can go a lot of different ways, but more of them will finish below this total than above it,” Fornelli wrote.

Final Score Prediction: Michigan State 28, Purdue 20 | Under 53.5

Army at Air Force (Under 37)

The two military schools will meet this weekend in a matchup that is usually more entertaining than not. Since 2005, the under is 39-9-1 in games between service academies, indicating that it is historically a smart bet. Fornelli suggests this is because of the run-option offensive schemes we often see, and Saturday should be no different.

“Army runs the ball 89.1% of the time, while Air Force runs 87.8% of the time,” he wrote. “Those are the two highest rushing rates in the country (Navy, another option offense, is third). When teams run the ball, the clock does not stop. When the clock doesn’t stop, it limits the overall number of possessions each team has, which puts a serious cap on how many points will be scored.”

Final Score Prediction: Army 21, Air Force 14 | Under 37

Tennessee (-1) at No. 18 Kentucky

After starting as one of the hottest teams in the country, Kentucky has cooled off considerably. The Wildcats rose as high as No. 11 in the AP poll following victories against Florida and LSU. Since then, they’ve lost two straight. Can Kentucky get back on track this week?

“I have a sneaking suspicion that Kentucky has been exposed,” Fornelli wrote. “The Wildcats came into the 2021 season with a new offense that nobody had seen yet and the early results were impressive. In their first two games against ULM and Missouri, the offense had a success rate of 54.4% and averaged 3.2 points per possession. In six games since, they’ve had a success rate of 51.2% and averaged 1.84 points per possession. That’s a steep drop-off, and while the last two games against Georgia and Mississippi State had a lot to do with it, there were warning signs already.”

Final Score Prediction: Tennessee 28, Kentucky 24 | Tennessee -1

ULM (+3.5) at Texas State

This matchup between Sun Belt foes isn’t bound to garner much attention. ULM and Texas State have a combined record of 6-8, and haven’t exactly played powerhouses either. Still, Fornelli has a feeling about the Warhawks in this one in his Week 10 college football predictions.

“You do not want to trust Texas State as a favorite,” he wrote. “At least, I certainly don’t. The Bobcats are 2-6 and have a -113 point differential of their own to deal with. These are two bad teams squaring off, with two bad offenses and two terrible defenses. What we have here is simply a situation in which neither team deserves to be favored against anybody, so we’re betting on the underdog.”

Final Score Prediction: ULM 31, Texas State 27 | ULM +3.5

No. 12 Baylor at TCU (Under 58)

TCU is reeling, currently sitting ninth in the Big 12 after announcing it would part ways with longtime coach Gary Patterson. Baylor, on the other hand, has been one of the more surprising teams in the conference. You can typically count on high-scoring affairs in Big 12 games, but Fornelli likes the under here because of blowout potential to conclude his Week 10 college football predictions.

“This is likely a scenario in which Baylor takes control of the game and then just takes its foot off the gas in the second half,” he wrote. “That’s why I’m not a massive fan of the spread, but will instead add yet another under to this week’s card.”

Final Score Prediction: Baylor 31, TCU 20 | Under 58