Championship Week picks: Can Georgia beat Texas a second time? Can James Franklin win a big one?

College Football Playoff berths, byes and home games are on the line. Also conference championships.

Let’s pick some games…

Iowa State vs. Arizona State (-2.5) Total: 51.5

Andy: Someone needs to bet Arizona State enough to push this line to 3.5 so we can use our specially minted 3.5-point Big 12 coin one more time. Iowa State gutted out a win against Kansas State in Farmageddon to make this game, and the Cyclones should be confident going into this one. Arizona State is the hottest team in the Big 12, and Cam Skattebo has become one of the toughest players in the country to defend. It’s a fool’s errand to choose confidently in a league that brings surprises every week. The championship game won’t be any different. Let’s flip the coin.
The pick: ARIZONA STATE TO COVER

Ari: Arizona State is on a remarkable run and it’s best player is running back Skattebo. Iowa State ranks No. 96 nationally in rushing defense. It seems like Arizona State is the play. But Iowa State, in my opinion, is one of the most resilient teams in the country and has the goods to get this done.
The pick: IOWA STATE TO COVER

Penn State vs. Oregon (-3.5) Total: 50.5

Andy: I’m intrigued by the James Franklin who has emerged since the final series of the Minnesota game. That James Franklin is faking punts, going for it on other fourth downs, throwing and scoring with the third-teamers in the game. Is the Franklin daredevil/heel turn what was needed to make Penn State capable of winning a big game like this one? The only problem is he’s facing Dan Lanning, who adopted that mindset the day he became a head coach. This could be a fun one.
The pick: OREGON TO COVER

Ari: Oregon is only a 3.5-point favorite? I would have thought it would be somewhere around 7. Maybe Las Vegas is trying to tell us something? James Franklin and the Nittany Lions have seemed to turn a corner since the Ohio State loss. I just have a hard time believing Penn State has enough firepower offensively to keep up with Oregon for four quarters.
The pick: OREGON TO COVER 

Georgia vs. Texas (-2.5) Total: 49.5

Andy: I went back and forth on this one because if the Texas offense plays the way it did in Saturday’s second half against Texas A&M, the Longhorns probably will lose in much the same way they lost against Georgia in Austin. But if Georgia’s defense plays the way it did Friday against Georgia Tech, then the Longhorns might control the game. It’s emblematic of this season that the SEC title and a bye in the CFP will come down to which versions of these teams show up Saturday.
The pick: TEXAS TO COVER

Ari: When you go back and watch the first game between these two teams, Texas did Georgia lot of favors. What if in this game, Texas doesn’t gift Georgia a bunch of points by turning the ball over deep in its own territory? Though I do have questions about Texas’ offense, I like the Longhorns to get it done in Atlanta. 
The pick: TEXAS TO COVER 

Clemson vs. SMU (-2.5) Total: 54.5

Andy: SMU’s Rhett Lashlee won the American Athletic Conference title game last year, and he led the Mustangs to the ACC title game in their first season in the conference. Meanwhile, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney is 8-0 in ACC title games. So why is SMU favored? Because unlike most of those eight, Clemson is not the prohibitively more talented team. This one is about as even as the spread suggests, and it may come down to which quarterback — SMU’s Kevin Jennings or Clemson’s Cade Klubnik — has the better Saturday.
The pick: SMU TO COVER

Ari: Dabo Swinney’s Tigers are fortunate to be in this position, but Clemson has been on this stage quite a bit under his leadership. SMU has to feel the weight of the world on its shoulders. This is a genuinely really hard game to pick, so I’m going to fall back on Swinney’s experience and just take points. SMU absolutely could cover this, though.
The pick: CLEMSON TO COVER 

UNLV at Boise State (-3.5) Total: 58.5

Andy: These two played a tight game in Las Vegas on Oct. 25 that Boise State won by five. Ashton Jeanty only averaged 3.9 yards a carry, but he was instrumental in helping the Broncos bleed clock in the fourth quarter. This also was one of Boise State QB Maddux Madsen’s best games. Madsen likely will have to shine again. Meanwhile, UNLV QB Hajj-Malik Williams threw for 179 yards and ran for 105 in the first meeting. The Rebels may need to get their other playmakers more involved to win this time.
The pick: BOISE STATE TO COVER

Ari: Everyone has forgotten about UNLV since these two teams played at the end of October. Many of us have just assumed that Boise State would make the CFP. It helps that Boise State is at home in this game, but the Rebels have a really good team and did a good job of limiting Ashton Jeanty in the first matchup. I think UNLV gets this one on the road.
The pick: UNLV MONEY LINE

Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (-4.5) Total: 57.5

Andy: Wait, didn’t they just play this game Saturday? They did, and Western Kentucky won 19-17 after making a 50-yard field goal with three seconds remaining. Now we’ll find out how difficult it is to beat the same opponent twice in eight days (the second time on the road). Jacksonville State quarterback Tyler Huff was injured in Saturday’s third quarter and was replaced for the rest of the game by Logan Smothers. Huff’s status for the title game is unclear, so former Nebraska QB Smothers may get the start.
The pick: JACKSONVILLE STATE TO COVER

Ari: Jacksonville State can really score, but it had a hard time over the weekend because it lost its quarterback. The good news for Jacksonville State is that it gets another opportunity to win this game only seven days later. I think they get it done. 
The pick: JACKSONVILLE STATE TO COVER

Tulane at Army (+4.5) Total: 48.5

Andy: Army bounced back from the Notre Dame loss by beating UTSA to clinch home field advantage. Meanwhile, Tulane dropped its first conference game of the season with a home loss to Memphis. Is this trending in Army’s direction? Tulane players will need to bundle up, because the high in West Point on Friday is 31 degrees. Green Wave coach Jon Sumrall was 2-0 in conference championship games at Troy. We’ll see if he can continue that streak while multiple programs try to woo him to be their coach.
The pick: ARMY TO COVER

Ari: This is a scary matchup for the Green Wave because it’s on the road in the bitter cold. But Tulane has been pretty remarkable in AAC play outside of the loss to Memphis. It could have had an outside chance at the CFP had it not lost to the Tigers. I expect this to be an ugly game, but the Wave to cover.
The pick: TULANE TO COVER

Ohio vs. Miami (Ohio) (-2.5) Total: 44.5

Andy: The Redhawks beat the Bobcats 30-20 on Oct. 19 for the second victory in what is now a seven-game win streak. The Bobcats haven’t lost since either, and they’ve been winning big. Their slimmest margin of victory in the streak is 17 points. The Redhawks held the Bobcats to their worst rushing average of the season and forced them to go to the air. If Ohio QB Parker Navarro is gaining yards on the ground, the Bobcats win the rematch. If Miami stuffs the run again, the Redhawks will hoist the trophy.
The pick: MIAMI (OHIO) TO COVER

Ari: This is an extremely hard game to pick because both of these teams come into the game riding long winning streaks and playing pretty well. I’m going to just go with the quarterback who has been at Miami (Ohio) since I was in high school. Bring it home, Brett Gabbert.
The pick: MIAMI (OHIO) TO COVER

Marshall at Louisiana (-4.5) Total: 56.5

Andy: The Thundering Herd fell behind 17-0 to James Madison last week before rallying to win 35-33 in overtime. Marshall has won six in a row and enters as one of the nation’s hottest teams. The Ragin’ Cajuns have kept winning behind backup quarterback Chandler Fields, who replaced injured starter Ben Woolldridge in November. Does Marshall have a little more magic left?
The pick: MARSHALL TO COVER

Ari: Louisiana has been one of the most under-valued teams in the country all year, but it laid an egg in the South Alabama game. The Ragin’ Cajuns, though, could have realistically been in the College Football Playoff discussion if they would have just played clean football all year. They are really, really good.
The pick: LOUISIANA TO COVER