Changing how we think about 3-and-out quarterbacks

Back in January of 2009, then USC head coach Pete Carroll made news when he openly disagreed with Trojan quarterback Mark Sanchez’s decision to forgo his remaining two years of eligibility and enter the NFL Draft. Carroll expressed his concerns during a joint press conference alongside Sanchez and he didn’t mince words. 

“After going through the process, the information tells us a lot of stuff. Mark is going against the grain on this decision and he knows that,” said Carroll. “He knows that coming out early is a tremendous challenge for a quarterback. The statistics don’t back up that it’s easy to be successful in the way that he’s going about it.

“It’s an experience issue,” he added. “From our view as we see it and as you guys dig into it a little more, you’ll see the plight of the early-out quarterbacks, even first-round draft picks, is less than 50-50 of them being successful.” 

Some, if not most, chalked up Carroll’s comments as sour grapes. The prospect of losing his starting quarterback after just one season as a starter had to sting. But he was right. The success rate early entry quarterbacks in the NFL was awful. Though Sanchez was just a one-year starter at USC, he had been in the program for four years. Much of the sample size that Carroll was referring to was comprised of 3-and-out quarterbacks – those who entered the draft three years after graduating from high school – the earliest a prospect can enter the NFL Draft.

The only 3-and-out success stories to that point were Michael Vick and Drew Bledsoe (drafted 12 years prior). Neither were in the NFL at the time. Meanwhile, notable draft busts like Ryan Leaf (a fourth-year early entry) and Tim Couch (3-and-out) were about to be joined by 2007’s No. 1 pick Jamarcus Russell (a fourth-year early entry), who was quickly flaming out of the league. Alex Smith was struggling to get his footing in San Francisco. Aaron Rodgers – the biggest 3-and-out success of his generation – was coming off his first year as a starter for Green Bay after sitting for three seasons behind Brett Favre. 

I was reminded of Pete Carroll’s comments when watching the rookie quarterback class play last fall. The 2021 NFL Draft saw three quarterbacks taken in the first three picks – Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) to Jacksonville at No. 1, Zach Wilson (BYU) to the New York Jets at No. 2 and Trey Lance (North Dakota State) to San Francisco at No 3. Justin Fields (Ohio State) went to Chicago at No. 11 and Mac Jones (Alabama) was picked by New England at No. 15. 

The group was hailed as one of the more talented, but least experienced quarterback classes in recent draft history. By midseason, Lawrence, Wilson, Lance and Fields were either struggling to varying degrees or seeing little playing time. Those four all entered the draft as 3-and-out quarterbacks – the most to go in a first round in NFL Draft history.

Lawrence, Wilson, Lance and Fields each showed flashes at times, but it’s safe to say the group didn’t meet the lofty (and perhaps unfair) expectations as rookies. Mac Jones, a four-year player at Alabama, started all 17 regular season games along with a playoff contest for New England and finished second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting.

Could the relative lack of college experience and seasoning be playing a role in how the 3-and-out group performed as rookies? Have things changed since Pete Carroll’s take on Mark Sanchez’s decision? I took a look at the backgrounds of current NFL starting quarterbacks and recent first-round picks at the position to find out. 

Most NFL starting quarterbacks played in college for four or five years

Let’s first survey the current landscape of the NFL as it relates to 3-and-out quarterbacks and those who played in college for four or five years.

Heading into this week’s NFL Draft, 19 of the current 32 starting quarterbacks in the league played four or five years in college. That number will likely expand by at least one or two – we could see Sam Darnold (3-and-out at USC) replaced in Carolina by Baker Mayfield (five years at Texas Tech/Oklahoma) or Jimmy Garoppolo (four years at Eastern Illinois). North Carolina’s Sam Howell is the only notable quarterback in this year’s draft who is 3-and-out. Odds are if any rookie starts in 2022, he will be a four or five year player. 

Close to two-thirds of the starting quarterbacks in the NFL were in college for four or five years.

We see an even more drastic split in assessing performance as rookies. A 3-and-out quarterback has never won Rookie of the Year. Notable quarterbacks to win Offensive Rookie of the Year like Justin Herbert (2020), Kyler Murray (2019), Dak Prescott (2016), Cam Newton (2011) and Ben Roethlisberger (2004) played in college for four or five years. 

The lack of track record among 3-and-out quarterbacks carries over to Canton. Aaron Rodgers will likely be the first 3-and-out quarterback in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. It may be close to 2030 by the time he’s inducted.

The group of established 3-and-out starting quarterbacks in the NFL is much smaller than the 13 who are currently slated as starters. Five of the 13 have been taken in the last two drafts – the four from 2021 and Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama). The jury is still out on all five as franchise quarterbacks. Three more have hurdles to clear to be long-term options for their respective franchises – Jared Goff (Cal) with Detroit, Jameis Winston (Florida State) with New Orleans and Darnold with Carolina. 

Commonalities among top 3-and-out quarterbacks

There’s a select group of quarterbacks who are 3-and-out success stories in the NFL. 

The five man group of top 3-and-out quarterbacks is Aaron Rodgers (Cal), Matthew Stafford (Georgia), Patrick Mahomes (Texas Tech), Lamar Jackson (Louisville) and Deshaun Watson (Clemson).

Rodgers, Mahomes and Jackson have won at least one Most Valuable Player Award. Rodgers, Mahomes and now Stafford have led their franchise to Super Bowl victories. Rodgers, Mahomes, Stafford and Watson have been given lucrative long-term contracts. The Ravens are admittedly eager to sign Jackson to a long-term deal, but he is content in riding out his rookie contract as the quarterback market continues to spike.

The most easily recognizable commonality among this group is their prodigious physical skills. Rodgers, Stafford and Mahomes are elite arm talents who can move and were considered as such dating back to their days as draft prospects. Jackson is the most electric rushing quarterback to enter the NFL perhaps ever, but at least since Michael Vick. Watson is a modern day quarterback with the ability to create plays with his arm and legs. 

The similarities don’t stop there. Interestingly, Rodgers (13 games at Butte College), Mahomes, Stafford, Jackson and Watson all started games as true freshmen in college. They each started 29 games or more and threw at least 930 passes at the college level. 

The importance of experience, particularly early in the college career, goes even further when we look at all of the first-round 3-and-out quarterbacks drafted in the last decade. 

Nine 3-and-out first-round quarterbacks drafted in the last ten years started as true freshmen in college. Six of the nine are second-contract players for their drafted team. Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson remain up in the air, while Josh Rosen is the lone member of the group to definitively not receive a second contract as a starter.  

	College Starts	College Pass Attempts
Aaron Rodgers	34	930
Matthew Stafford	37	987
Jared Goff	37	1,568
Patrick Mahomes	29	1,349
Deshaun Watson	34	1,207
Josh Rosen	30	1,170
Lamar Jackson	36	1,086
Trevor Lawrence	38	1,138
Zach Wilson	28	837

Seven 3-and-out first-round quarterbacks taken in the last decade did not start games as freshmen, either redshirting or serving as backups. The four who did not receive second contracts from their drafted teams all redshirted as freshmen in college. That group includes Johnny Manziel, Jameis Winston , Sam Darnold and Dwayne Haskins (who was tragically killed in a traffic accident earlier this month). Tua Tagovailoa, Trey Lance and Justin Fields are still on their rookie contracts. Tagovailoa and Fields differ a bit from the rest of the group in that they both saw live game action as freshmen, while not starting games. 

	College Starts	College Pass Attempts
Johnny Manziel	25	863
Jameis Winston	27	851
Sam Darnold	24	846
Dwayne Haskins	14	590
Tua Tagovailoa	26	684
Trey Lance	17	318
Justin Fields	22	618

The group who started as true freshmen simply played much more college football, with an average of 33.7 games started and 1,141 passes thrown. The group who were redshirts or backups as true freshmen averaged 22.1 games started and just 681 career pass attempts at the college level. Zach Wilson (837 pass attempts) is the lone member of the freshman starter group to not throw more college passes than the highest total from the redshirt/backup group (Manziel, 863). 

No 3-and-out quarterback drafted in the last ten years who did not start games as a true freshman in college has received a second contract from their drafted team.

Conversely, every 3-and-out quarterback to receive a second contract from the sample started games as a college freshman, with Jared Goff joining Rodgers, Mahomes, Stafford, Watson and ultimately Jackson.

As Pete Carroll noted 13 years ago, the plight of the early-entry quarterback does appear to be tied to a lack of experience. 

The incidence of early collegiate experience as a common thread among top NFL quarterbacks is nothing new. Pro Football Hall of Famers Peyton Manning (Tennessee), Brett Favre (Southern Miss.), Dan Marino (Pittsburgh), John Elway (Stanford) and Troy Aikman (Oklahoma/UCLA) started games as true freshmen in college. Roger Staubach (Navy) and Warren Moon (Washington) also started games as true freshmen in junior college. 

Why college experience matters for quarterbacks

Several factors are at play when it comes to why college experience matters for 3-and-out quarterbacks.

Confidence is paramount at quarterback. All young signal callers will experience adversity early on in their professional careers. Many are drafted by franchises that are coming off losing seasons. Quarterbacks with deeper reservoirs of on-field experience are more likely to operate with confidence during tough times. Playing quarterback is a performance craft set in an open environment. The more a signal caller has seen in pressurized, in-game settings, the more likely he will be able to respond when challenged. These experienced quarterbacks are also less likely to sustain scarring with regards to handling pressure. 

A quarterback should strive to be as good and confident as possible at the college level when choosing to enter the NFL Draft. The goal for every rookie quarterback should be to hit the ground running.

The NFL is not a developmental league. The NFL does not have a developmental apparatus like the NBA’s G League or Minor League Baseball for inexperienced quarterback to get crucial live in-game reps. 

Nowadays, the clock starts the second a quarterback is drafted in the first round. It’s often a sink or swim proposition. Most franchises that pick a quarterback in the first round, particularly near the top of the draft, are doing so for a reason. Many of those coaching staffs and front office regimes don’t have the security to sit back and wait for a quarterback to develop behind the scenes. 

The NFL’s salary structure also incentivizes playing quarterbacks on cheap rookie deals. A starting quarterback on a rookie contract frees up significant space to allocate resources elsewhere throughout the roster. A quarterback who is both talented and ready to play early on in his career is extremely valuable.

Top quarterbacks are playing longer. The extended primes of top flight quarterbacks is one of the primary driving forces behind the increased player movement with ripple effects in the quarterback market down to the draft. Aaron Rodgers has won back-to-back Most Valuable Player awards in his upper 30’s. Tom Brady finished second in MVP voting last season at 44 years-old, one year after leading Tampa Bay to the Super Bowl.  

Top quarterbacks playing well into their mid and upper 30’s, has affected movement at the position directly and indirectly. Veteran quarterbacks like Brady, Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson are on their second teams, with those franchises going into “win now” mode. Franchises are being forced to go all in or look to rebuild to varying extremes. It’s become a league of haves and have-nots at the quarterback position. Replacement-level quarterback play has little to no value aside from when a franchise is looking for a placeholder during a rebuild, which will either pend on receiving a high draft pick or landing a top veteran via trade or free agency. 

As a result, teams are less likely to suffer young quarterbacks who don’t perform. We saw this with the Los Angeles Rams moving on from Jared Goff and trading for Matthew Stafford just a few years after Goff recieved a lucrative contract and helped Los Angeles to a Super Bowl appearance. Arizona replaced Josh Rosen with No. 1 pick Kyler Murray, just one year after Rosen was taken in the top ten. Baker Mayfield looks to be on the way out in Cleveland after the Browns traded for Deshaun Watson.

Moving forward

Quarterbacks don’t succeed or fail in a vacuum. Fit is key.

Matthew Stafford is the only current 3-and-out success story to be picked before No. 10. Even then, Stafford didn’t win a playoff game until last season after he was traded to the Los Angeles Rams. If Trevor Lawrence succeeds in the NFL, it’s possible his career trajectory looks a lot like Stafford’s as a fellow 3-and-out No. 1 pick who was taken by a franchise without a winning track record.

Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson were picked at No. 10 and No. 12, respectively in 2017. Aaron Rodgers famously fell to No. 24 in the 2004 NFL Draft. Lamar Jackson was the fifth quarterback drafted in 2018, going with the final pick in the first round.

In a recent interview on The Dan Patrick Show, former Las Vegas Raiders general manager Mike Mayock cited the importance of fit for quarterbacks as a key revelation in his transition from the media to running a NFL front office.

“What I learned the last few years is that fit really matters. And by definition if you’re a top five draft pick, you’re typically going to a poor football team. Fit matters,” said Mayock. “Who’s your offensive coordinator, who’s your quarterback coach? Do you fit with what they’re doing? What are they complimenting you with, what are they putting around you? Can you run the football? What’s your offensive line look like? There’s so many different things that go into that.”

Make no mistake, 3-and-out quarterbacks have succeeded at a higher clip since Pete Carroll’s statements about the horrific track record in 2009. There was nowhere to go but up. The low success rate of 3-and-out quarterbacks who didn’t start as true freshmen will likely be further tested in the 2022 NFL Draft with Alabama‘s Bryce Young and Ohio State‘s CJ Stroud projected as top picks at this early stage.

With that said, there does appear to be a specific type of 3-and-out quarterback who hits at a much higher rate than others – those who are both physically-gifted and experienced with an early breakout at the college level.