Coaching Carousel: Examining the decisions by Baylor bringing back Dave Aranda and UCLA retaining Chip Kelly

While 13 schools opted to make a coaching change thus far this cycle, a pair of notable programs have opted to ride it out with a pair of embattled coaches they hope can make turnarounds in 2024. 

In recent days, reports leaked out that Dave Aranda would return at Baylor and Chip Kelly would be back at UCLA. 

Here’s some thoughts on the decisions by the two programs choosing to not hit the market for a new head coach this cycle:

Dave Aranda is just two seasons removed from winning the Big 12 Championship at Baylor. 

That’s not nothing.

Still, the ex-LSU defensive coordinator is trending in the wrong direction — and fast. He’s just 9-16 since his 12-2 season in 2021, and this year was a disastrous 3-9 season that concluded with a gut-punching collapse against West Virginia. The Bears went an incredible 1-7 at home in 2023 — their lone victory against a FCS team.

There’s a talent drain in Waco, and the roster is getting worse (quarterback Blake Shapen just entered the transfer portal). 

Aranda is extremely well-respected and is among the more uniquely likable coaches in all of college football, but he’s been slow to react to changes in the sport. He was allergic to the transfer portal after the 2021 season, only to do an about-face this past year and bring in 10 fresh faces. He’s also made some strange comments around NIL, even blaming himself for why a school with as many resources as Baylor hasn’t been competitive compared to its Big 12 peers. He’s suggested he’ll evolve like he did with the transfer portal, but is it too little too late?

The Bears’ recruiting is going in the wrong direction, too. Their 2024 class ranks 59th currently, per On3. They’ve hovered around the mid-30s nationally in Aranda’s previous three seasons. Staff changes are happening after Aranda reportedly parted ways with offensive coordinator/OL coach Jeff Grimes and yanked play-calling duties away from defensive coordinator Matt Powledge, with plans to call the defense himself. 

Two years ago, Grimes was a finalist for the Broyles Award and Aranda just brought Powledge back to Waco last season after the former Bears’ secondary coach left for a co-DC role on Dan Lanning’s staff at Oregon. 

Individually, these changes make sense. Baylor’s offense has regressed badly the last two seasons (Big 12-worst 23.1 points per game in 2023, down from 32.2 in 2022) and the defense ranks in the 110s or worse nationally in a slew of categories (scoring, yards per play, 3rd downs). 

The problem is Dave Aranda has already been allowed a mulligan with multiple coordinator hires, as he fired DC Ron Roberts and ST coordinator Ronnie Wheat after a 6-7 season in 2022. 

Now he’s tabbed with making more major changes before a sink-or-swim season? I don’t really get it. 

We don’t totally know the exact finances of Aranda’s contract situation since Baylor is a private institution. He signed an extension after the 2021 Big 12 title that runs through 2029, and reportedly, reportedly he has a Tom Allen-esque $20 million buyout. 

That’s hefty. But is Baylor really willing to possibly waste a major transition season in the Big 12 — with a power vacuum in the league now that Texas and Oklahoma are off to the SEC — over saying maybe $5-6 million this time next season? It sure seems like we’re going to be in this exact place a year from now, only actually talking about a coaching change in Waco. 

I think the Bears are missing a window here. The market isn’t popping with glamour openings. On all the 2023 FBS best-to-worst head coach opening rankings lists, Baylor would jump to the top instantly — leapfrogging the likes of its current Big 12 counterpart Houston. They would be first in line for Jeff Traylor, Willie Fritz or Candidate X. 

A Power 5 job. In Texas. With money to spend and no current blue-blood power in the league? Color me confused as to why Baylor opted not to make a change heading into the 2024 season. 

UCLA’s move to retain Chip Kelly makes a little more sense

First, there are absolutely viable arguments for UCLA to have moved on from Chip Kelly. 

After a 9-win season in 2022, the Bruins were just 7-5 this season against one of the weaker schedules among all Power 5 teams. 

One week after waxing rival USC, they capped the year with an ugly loss at home to Cal. Kelly is 34-34 in six seasons in Westwood, 26-26 in Pac-12 play. He’s yet to win a bowl game. The Bruins are just 8-8 in their last 16 games under Chip, too. Their high school recruiting continues to be stagnant, and Kelly has been totally indifferent with using or promoting NIL. 

So yes, there are real justifications for making a head coaching change. 

But unlike what’s happened at Baylor the last two seasons, if you look under the hood at UCLA, there are still signs that not all is lost for the Bruins under Chip Kelly. 

He has brought in several strong transfer classes and D’Anton Lynn was an excellent hire as defensive coordinator. The Bruins had the best defense in the Pac-12 under Lynn’s leadership in 2023. Offensively, they battled a variety of quarterback injuries this fall, and while Kelly shares some of the responsibility for 5-star freshman Dante Moore struggling, he was a freshman quarterback after all. UCLA’s sports science program remains one of the best in the country and the Bruins should remain an attractive program for players seeking immediate playing time — especially as they transition to the Big Ten next season. 

The irony with UCLA is that it’s not as prestigious of a job as its awesome uniforms and West Coast locals would suggest. Despite Kelly’s mediocre showings throughout his tenure in Westwood, if the Bruins win their bowl game they would have three straight 8-win seasons — something that’s only happened two other times in the program’s history since John F. Kennedy was President. 

I must also acknowledge that UCLA’s biggest booster, Casey Wasserman, remains steadfastly loyal to Kelly and is a major reason why no change was made. So unless the powers-that-be were willing to eat $8 million to fire Kelly and then hire the likes of Arizona’s Jedd Fisch, then chances are the Bruins probably weren’t hiring a better coach than Chip Kelly before a crucial 2024 season. 

Like Dave Aranda, Kelly faces a make-or-break year, too, but the situation doesn’t feel quite as dead-man walking.