College Basketball Rankings: Predicting the AP Poll Top 25 as conference play begins

As people everywhere flip the calendar from 2023 to 2024, the AP Poll voters will submit their votes for the first look at the college basketball landscape in the new year with the latest Top 25. With the non-conference portion of the schedule mostly complete, attention turns to conference rivalries.

While a few conferences scheduled games for the month of December, the full slate opens over the next several days across the country.

Purdue exited the year as the No. 1 team in the country behind the strong play of reigning National Player of the Year Zach Edey, along with an experienced supporting cast. Defending champions UConn have remained near the top of the rankings all season behind strong play from Tristen Newton.

Here is how I think the new AP Top 25 will look on Jan. 1:

1. Purdue (Last week: 1)

Purdue took care of business in its only game of the week against Eastern Kentucky 80-53 on Friday. They moved to 12-1 with reigning Player of the Year Zach Edey averaging 23.2 points and 10.2 rebounds, along with three others averaging double-figures this season.

After splitting the first two Big Ten games 1-1 in December, the Boilermakers focus their attention fully on the conference slate with games at Maryland and against No. 11 Illinois.

2. Kansas (Last week: 2)

Kansas moved to 12-1 on Saturday with an in-state rivalry game against Wichita State. They have gotten big-time production from Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr., who are averaging 18.3 and 20.4 respectively.

Next week, the Jayhawks open Big 12 play against TCU. With the non-conference portion of the schedule in the rear-view, they can focus on the grueling lineup which includes five other ranked teams.

3. Houston (Last week: 3)

Like Kansas, Houston wrapped up the non-conference schedule against Penn in dominant fashion. They are the highest-ranked undefeated team after a relatively weak slate in preparation for the coming months.

Saturday marks the first Big 12 conference game for the Cougars, who join the conference with immediate plans to contend. They face a struggling West Virginia team at home.

4. UConn (Last week: 5)

UConn took the week off between Christmas and New Year’s Eve after starting the season 11-2 including three Top 25 wins. In defending their title, they have overcome multiple injuries behind a breakout performance from Tristen Newton.

The Huskies will play games against DePaul at home on Tuesday and at Butler on Friday as they continue their run in the Big East.

5. Tennessee (Last week: 6)

After wrapping up and undefeated December, Tennessee rested over the past week with no games on the schedule. The sit at 9-3 so far with the only losses coming against current Top 10 teams.

The Volunteers wrap up the main portion of their non-conference schedule on Tuesday against Norfolk State before starting SEC play against Ole Miss on Saturday.

6. Kentucky (Last week: 8)

Kentucky knocked off Illinois State 96-70 this week behind 27 points from former Cardinal Antonio Reeves. They are 10-2 to this point and continue to get healthier as the season rolls on. The eligibility of Zvonimir Ivisic remains a question mark.

A road trip to Florida kicks off the conference schedule on Saturday, with an early tip-off scheduled for 12:30 pm ET.

7. Arizona (Last week: 4)

Arizona started the Pac-12 schedule with a 100-81 win at Cal and a disappointing 100-82 loss at Stanford this week, after suffering a double overtime loss against FAU the week before. The addition of Caleb Love and Keshad Johnson has stacked them among the elite teams this season at 10-2 exiting 2023.

Tougher matchups against Colorado and Utah come at home next week for the Wildcats as they look to bounce back.

8. North Carolina (Last week: 9)

Now 9-3 in the non-conference portion of the schedule, North Carolina capped off the run with a dominant 105-60 win over Charleston Southern. RJ Davis now has eight consecutive games scoring over 20 points.

The Tar Heels begin their run through the ACC with a road test against Pittsburgh on Tuesday, followed by a road game against Clemson on Saturday.

9. Marquette (Last week: 10)

Marquette picked up the biggest win of any Top 25 team this week in a 72-67 victory over Creighton. Now 11-3, they are also 2-1 in Big East play.

The conference schedule continues next week with just one game. A Saturday road trip to face Seton Hall will be the Golden Eagles first game of the new year.

10. Illinois (Last week: 11)

Following the arrest of Illinois star Terrence Shannon Jr., the team continued its season with a win over Fairleigh Dickinson. Despite a 10-2 start, a police investigation now dominates the headlines for this team.

The Fighting Illini are scheduled to face Northwestern on Tuesday before traveling to play Purdue on Friday.

Ranking 11-25

11. Oklahoma (Last week: 12)
12. BYU (Last week: 14)
13. Colorado State (Last week: 15)
14. Gonzaga (Last week: 13)
15. Duke (Last week: 16)
16. Baylor (Last week: 17)
17. FAU (Last week: 7)
18. Clemson (Last week: 18)
19. Memphis (Last week: 19)
20. James Madison (Last week: 20)
21. Texas (Last week: 21)
22. Wisconsin (Last week: 23)
23. Ole Miss (Last week: 24)
24. Providence (Last week: 25)
25. Creighton (Last week: 22)

Projected to drop out: N/A