College Basketball Rankings: Predicting the AP Poll Top 25: Upsets everywhere spark chaos

Chaos all across college basketball, with upsets from start to finish, has set up the AP Poll Top 25 release to be one of the most unpredictable of the season.

With seven losses inside the Top 10, and nearly as many Top 25 losses as Top 25 teams, there is little set in stone. Auburn went unscathed at No. 1, beyond that it is anyone’s guess where the voters will place each team.

As the dust settles and a new hierarchy unfolds in college basketball, here is a predictive look at what the 2024-25 AP Poll Top 25 could look like on Monday.

Predicted AP Poll Top 25

1. Auburn (Last Week: 1)

Auburn now sits a bit more comfortably at No. 1, surviving two close games against SEC opponents while the rest of the Top 25 struggled. Taking down Mississippi State and Georgia is not going to end debate, but is an impressive feat without Johni Broome.

2. Duke (Last Week: 3)

Duke slides up the board thanks to losses around the country, continuing their win streak with a pair of ACC wins. First knocking off Notre Dame, the Blue Devils wrapped up the weekend with a strong finish against Boston College.

3. Iowa State (Last Week: 2)

Iowa State drops down the board, despite picking up a massive midweek win against Kansas to assert themselves in the Big 12 title mix. A weekend upset against West Virginia set them back from their climb to the top.

4. Alabama (Last Week: 4)

Alabama suffered its worst loss of the season during the midweek slate, dropping a game to Ole Miss. The Crimson Tide bounced back well and defeated Kentucky on the road, undoing any damage.

5. Houston (Last Week: 10)

Houston continues its climb back toward the top of the Top 25 with a clean week. After a blowout win vs. West Virginia, the Cougars survived an upset bid against UCF in a week where many fell.

6. Florida (Last Week: 5)

Florida split results in the SEC, losing to Missouri at home, then avenging that result with a big win over Texas. The Gators do not project to fall far with others around them suffering the same fate.

7. Tennessee (Last Week: 6)

Tennessee started the week off strong, beating Georgia by double-digits. However, a road upset against in-state rival Vanderbilt foils an opportunity to rise in the Top 25, instead dropping them slightly.

8. Michigan State (Last Week: 12)

The beneficiary of an early 2025 win streak and losses around them, Michigan State finds themselves in the Top 10 after knocking off Penn State and Illinois over the past week. The Spartans continue to quietly produce some of the best results in the country.

9. Kentucky (Last Week: 8)

After taking care of business against Texas A&M in a ranked midweek matchup, Kentucky dropped a home game against Alabama on Saturday. Instead of a big rise, they slot down the board with many of their peers.

10. Kansas (Last Week: 9)

Coming off a midweek loss against Iowa State which promised to set the tone in the Big 12, Kansas took care of business against in-state rival Kansas State. The Jayhawks promise to stay close to their old spot with the split result.

Predicting 11-25

11. Marquette (Last Week: 7)
12. Purdue (Last Week: 17)
13. Texas A&M (Last Week: 11)
14. Oregon (Last Week: 13)
15. Mississippi State (Last Week: 15)
16. Ole Miss (Last Week: 21)
17. Wisconsin (Last Week: 24)
18. Vanderbilt (Last Week: NR)
19. UConn (Last Week: 14)
20. Illinois (Last Week: 19)
21. Missouri (Last Week: NR)
22. St. John’s (Last Week: NR)
23. Louisville (Last Week: NR)
24. Michigan (Last Week: 20)
25. Memphis (Last Week 18)

Projected to drop out: Gonzaga (Last Week: 16), Utah State (Last Week: 22), Georgia (Last Week: 23), Baylor (Last Week: 25)