College Basketball Rankings: Predicting the AP Poll Top 25 after massive upsets leave one unbeaten team

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Conference play is in full swing across college basketball and the first weekend brought countless bad losses for highly-ranked teams. A big shake-up in the AP Poll is sure to take place, making it one of the most anticipated releases of the season so far.

Trying to predict how the voters will view each win and loss leads to a shuffled up version of the Top 25, with some anticipated new-comers ready to jump into the conversation.

Providence dropped both games and lost All-Big East forward Bryce Hopkins for the season, crushing their hopes for the season. Meanwhile, James Madison and Ole Miss dropped their first games of the season and leave Houston as the last unbeaten in college basketball.

Here is how I think the new AP Top 25 will look on Jan. 8:

1. Purdue (Last week: 1)

Purdue's Zach Edey — Purdue’s Zach Edey (John E. Sokolowski/USA Today Sports)

Purdue took care of business on the road against Maryland before overcoming a late push by Illinois to finish the week 2-0 and maintain their grip on the No. 1 spot in the AP Poll.

The Boilermakers will head on the road to play Nebraska before a home game against Penn State next week.

2. Kansas (Last week: 2)

Hunter Dickinson is one of the top transfers in college basketball (Photo by Dr. Michael Huang | Kentucky Sports Radio)

Kansas opened Big 12 play with a close win over TCU, leaving no reason to drop them in the rankings despite increasing questions about their analytic rankings in the NET (11) and KenPom (16).

Next week, the Jayhawks will play UCF on the road and take on Oklahoma in a ranked matchup as well.

3. Houston (Last week: 3)

LJ Cryer Houston — Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Now the last undefeated team in the country, Houston won its first ever Big 12 game easily against West Virginia.

The Cougars ramp up the conference schedule with two road games this week, first against Iowa State, then TCU.

4. UConn (Last week: 4)

Nov 27, 2023; Storrs, Connecticut, USA; UConn Huskies center Donovan Clingan (32) reacts after being fouled by New Hampshire Wildcats in the second half at Harry A. Gampel Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

UConn took care of business against DePaul and Butler this week, helping them maintain their spot while building momentum toward the top of the Big East. As Dan Hurley reminded the Butler crowd, they are the reigning champions after all.

The Huskies will play games against Xavier on the road and Georgetown at home next week.

5. Tennessee (Last week: 5)

(Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK) Tennessee guard Dalton Knecht (3) dribbles the ball during an NCAA college basketball game between Tennessee and Tarleton State at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center, Thursday, Dec. 21, 2023.

After a week off, Tennessee wrapped up the non-conference schedule with an easy win over Norfolk State. They carried the momentum into a game against previously unbeaten Ole Miss, taking care of business to plant themselves atop the SEC.

The Volunteers have two road games scheduled next week, starting with Mississippi State and then against Georgia.

6. Kentucky (Last week: 6)

Kentucky Wildcat Antonio Reeves — (Photo: Dr. Michael Huang/KSR)

Kentucky picked up a nice road win against Florida in comeback fashion, showcasing the improvements made over the non-conference portion of the season.

The Wildcats will play Missouri on Tuesday before heading on the road to face Texas A&M on Saturday.

7. North Carolina (Last week: 8)

north-carolina-head-coach-hubert-davis-gives-rj-davis-injury-update — North Carolina senior RJ Davis has been on of college basketballs biggest stock risers over the past two weeks (Bennett/Getty Images)

The ACC slate started well for North Carolina, which picked up two road wins against Pittsburgh and Clemson. The later was a Top 25 matchup, helping build a case to move up in the rankings.

The Tar Heels continue their run through the ACC with a road game against rival NC State before a home game against Syracuse wraps up the next week.

8. Arizona (Last week: 10)

Caleb Love-Arizona — Zachary BonDurant | USA TODAY Sports

Arizona faced a difficult week with games against NCAA Tournament contenders Colorado and Utah, but ended the week 2-0 and improved their standing after a slip at the end of December.

The Wildcats will play Washington State on the road in their only matchup of the week on Saturday.

9. Oklahoma (Last week: 11)

Dec 16, 2023; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners guard Otega Oweh (3) reacts after a basket against the Green Bay Phoenix during the first half at Lloyd Noble Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports

Oklahoma won it’s only game of the week by knocking off Iowa State on Saturday. The Sooners project to crack the Top 10 here by improving to 13-1 and starting conference play 1-0.

The Sooners are scheduled to face TCU and Kansas next week, with both road games serving as a true test after a great start.

10. Marquette (Last week: 7)

Marquette G Tyler Kolek — Benny Sieu | USA TODAY Sports

Marquette dropped a game against Seton Hall, which has caught fire early in Big East play with an impressive resume starting to form. However, with winners around them, Shaka Smart’s squad could drop.

The conference schedule continues next week with just one game. A Wednesday night matchup against Butler.

Ranking 11-25

11. Illinois (Last week: 9)
12. Duke (Last week: 16)
13. Memphis (Last week: 19)
14. Auburn (Last week: 25)
15. BYU (Last week: 14)
16. Colorado State (Last week: 15)
17. Baylor (Last week: 17)
18. Wisconsin (Last week: 23)
19. Gonzaga (Last week: 25)
20. SDSU (Last week: NR)
21. Creighton (Last week: NR)
22. Clemson (Last week: 16)
23. Utah State (Last week: NR)
24. Texas (Last week: 20)
25. Ole Miss (Last week: 22)

Projected to drop out: FAU (Last week: 17), James Madison (Last Week: 19), Providence (Last week: 23)