College Basketball Rankings: Predicting the AP Poll Top 25 with potential shift at No. 1

The No. 1 team in the country took a loss for the first time in weeks, as Auburn lost at home against Florida in a battle of top-ranked SEC programs. Then, to make the matter more complicated, No. 2 Duke suffered an upset loss on the road against Clemson as well.

Those two losses, paired with Alabama’s wins, put a lot on the mind of AP Poll voters with so many options to choose from in the top spot. The two vastly different cases leave the door open for either path.

The AP Poll has seen ties before, with a tie for No. 2 as recently as 2022 in college football, but for two in-state rivals set to play this week to tie at No. 1 would be unprecedented.

With anticipation across the sport, here is a predictive look at what the 2024-25 AP Poll Top 25 could look like on Monday.

Predicted AP Poll Top 25

1. Alabama (Last Week: 3)

The case for Alabama to jump to No. 1 overall is simple. They won while other teams lost. And, at the end of the day, the change would be proven right or wrong with a rivalry game vs. Auburn this week anyway.

2. Auburn (Last Week: 1)

The conversation was brewing over whether Auburn could hold onto its No. 1 ranking before the loss to Florida, and now it will be put to the test. The Tigers retain the best resume, but will fight against recency with voters.

3. Duke (Last Week: 2)

Duke had a chance to contend for the No. 1 ranking on Saturday, but suffered an upset of their own on the road against Clemson to put them under pressure from multiple SEC teams with strong resumes around them.

4. Florida (Last Week: 6)

Despite wins from the teams above them, none of those compare to what Florida pulled off on the road against Auburn. The Gators project to climb the rankings and put themselves among the top teams in college basketball.

5. Tennessee (Last Week: 4)

Tennessee picked up a pair of wins against Missouri and Oklahoma, holding onto a spot among the SEC’s best despite dropping down the board. The Volunteers have plenty more opportunities to climb the rankings ahead.

6. Houston (Last Week: 5)

Houston took care of business in the Big 12, knocking off Oklahoma State and Colorado in two important wins for their quest to lead the conference. The Cougars still drop down the board despite doing no wrong.

7. Purdue (Last Week: 7)

Purdue picked up a pair of impressive Big Ten wins over the past week, asserting themselves in the mix for the regular season title. They also remain the top-ranked team in the conference as they string together results.

8. Texas A&M (Last Week: 10)

Texas A&M played just one game this week, coming away with a road win against Missouri to help their case to climb the AP Poll Top 25 once again. The Aggies continue to make the most of the losses suffered by teams around them.

9. St. John’s (Last Week: 12)

St. John’s promises to jump inside the Top 10 for the first time under head coach Rick Pitino, who has quickly turned the Big East program into a true college basketball contender. The Red Storm now ranks higher than any other team in its league.

10. Michigan State (Last Week: 9)

Michigan State started the week off with a road loss against UCLA, but rebounded very nicely with a big win over Oregon in the weekend slate. The Spartans promise to not drop far based on the loss thanks to the movement of others around them.

Predicting 11-25

11. Iowa State (Last Week: 8)
12. Memphis (Last Week 17)
13. Arizona (Last Week: 20)
14. Texas Tech (Last Week: 13)
15. Kentucky (Last Week: 14)
16. Wisconsin (Last Week: 21)
17. Marquette (Last Week: 11)
18. Mississippi State (Last Week: 22)
19. Kansas (Last Week: 16)
20. Clemson (Last Week: NR)
21. Michigan (Last Week: 24)
22. Ole Miss (Last Week: 25)
23. Missouri (Last Week: 15)
24. Maryland (Last Week: 18)
25. Creighton (Last Week: NR)

Projected to drop out: UConn (Last Week: 19), Illinois (Last Week: 23)