College Coaches Confidential: "Is it realistic for the power conferences to break away from the NCAA?"

Last week we got official word that Oregon and Washington were headed to the Big 10 and Utah, Arizona, and Arizona State to the Big 12. This conference realignment news comes close to a year after it was announced USC and UCLA would be moving to the Big 10, Houston, BYU, UCF, and Cincinnati are moving to the Big 12, and Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC. 

This currently leaves the Pac 12 with four member schools. Within the last five years, college athletics has experienced a lot of change. First, with the NIL and transfer portal rules changing, and now with major shifts in conference realignment. 

I had one power five college coach tell me, “I would be curious to know if college athletics has experienced more change in history than it has in the last five years with the emergence of NIL and the transfer portal.”

With the latest change in conference realignment, I spoke with a handful of college coaches whose conferences could be affected by the changes. So I asked coaches from the high major to the mid-major levels their thoughts…

Do you subscribe to the thought that the power conferences could break away from the NCAA within a couple of years? Could that work?

Coaches speak

A Coach in the SEC: “I see there is a divide where there are folks that can pay their kids and sustain it. And there will be schools that cannot. I would be surprised if there isn’t a Division 1A and Division 1AA in the next five years. Like in football. Why would schools share the money if they don’t have to? It’s capitalism at its finest. And we have let capitalism infiltrate the things most Americans care about, amateur sports. 

“The fact that schools have been profit-sharing the NCAA Tournament this long is nothing more than kindness. The NCAA does very little to regulate things. They spend their money on things like lawyers to keep themselves out of the news. Now, the major schools have all the power from the tv money. What’s the role the NCAA actually plays? Handling the logistics of the NCAA Tournament? What purpose do they really serve now that the kids are paid, and the programs are funded through tv deals?

A Coach in the Big 12: “I think football will break away from the NCAA for sure. Will basketball, I don’t know. I do think the revenue distribution will be so huge that it will make the high majors like Division 1A and the mid-majors like Division 1AA.”

A Coach in the American: “I hear that a lot, and just me, I don’t see it happening. I’m sure I’m in the one percent that would say that. I just don’t see legislators allowing universities to do that. I think too many state senators will fight to keep their non-power universities in the mix.”

A Coach in the SEC: “I certainly think that is a possibility. There will be a completely different set of rules for the ‘super conferences’ than there will be for the rest of college basketball. With where the direction of NIL is going, I’m not sure how the NCAA can get a handle on how to regulate the differences between 360 college basketball programs. Laws will eventually be put into place that will determine what the future of college basketball looks like.”

A Coach in the ACC: “Honestly, nothing would be surprising at this point. It remains to be seen on what the future of the NCAA will look like. If the next five years are anything like the previous five, I would say to expect some seismic changes to continue.”

A Coach in the SEC: I do subscribe to the idea that the power conferences could break away from the NCAA. We all know that the NCAA does not run college football. College football is the driving force behind the conference realignment happening. I think the biggest dilemma in the breakaway would be the NCAA Tournament, which generates huge revenue. But outside of that, I can see it happening sooner rather than later. As far as if it can work, it’s hard to say. So many other sports will become casualties as a result of the break from the NCAA.”

A Coach in the ACC: “I think there is no doubt that the power conferences are looking for a way to break from the NCAA. I believe we are closer than ever to that occurring.”

A Coach in the Sun Belt: “There is a chance the power conferences try to pull away. They don’t need the NCAA for much. As much as the NCAA Tournament is great and generates money, this is all about football. So I could see Greg Sankey and those guys deciding to branch football off and do their own Power Three of Four types of playoff or something like that. Again, adapt or get left behind, I guess, is the motto now.”

A Coach in the Southern Conference: “I am not sure how the P5 breakaway will work. As we all know, the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament is king. Everyone needs it in order to function. Even if the P5 is able to break away, they are going to want to be able to still participate in that tournament. So how does that work? I’m not sure about the logistics. But, if the NCAA Tournament goes away, then there is no more NCAA, and we as coaches are all looking for jobs.”