College football's 16 most-improved teams in 2023, per Phil Steele

A large part of the fun in college football is its unpredictability. You never know when a projected contender will completely tank their season or when an conference champion will come out of absolutely nowhere to shock everyone. We’ll be focusing on the latter today, as college football Phil Steele has recently released his magazine, which details the programs he believes are set to take a big step forward in 2023.

Steele selected 16 teams he thinks stand out among the rest and are capable of achieving well above their success from the previous season. There’s a healthy mix of possible top-25 teams, some lower-profile power conference schools and plenty of non-power programs as well.

So take a look, in order, at Phil Steele’s 16 Most Improved teams of the season:

1. Texas A&M

The difference between talent and final record was vast in College Station last fall, as the Aggies juxtaposed a No. 1 recruiting class in the ’22 spring with a 5-7 record that season, missing out on a bowl game for the first time since 2008. However, Phil Steele sees reason for immense improvement.

First of all, he liked their defense a year ago and expects that side of the ball to be the strength of the team this year after they allowed just 21 points a game and return 10 starters. Also, QB Conner Weigman is just a sophomore but he got plenty of game experience a year ago and gets back A&M’s top three receivers, including a Phil Steele All-SEC selection Ainias Smith. This team ought to be better.

2. Oklahoma

Per Steele, the Sooners were victim of a lot of tough losses and dropped all five of their games that came down to one score — a phenomenon that’s highly unlikely to repeat. He also likes the offense under QB Dillon Gabriel since they averaged 510 yards and 37 points in games where he was healthy, compared to just 275 and 12 in the others.

“This team is improved on both offense and defense and I like the direction Venables has them pointed,” writes Steele. “They are my No. 2 Most Improved team, my No. 8 surprise team and a legitimate Big 12 contender.”

3. Appalachian State

The Mountaineers are an interesting pick for Steele as they went 6-6 a year ago and lost half of their starters, including quarterback Chase Brice, to now rank No. 120 out of 133 on the experience chart. So, why is Steele so high on App State and predicting them to win the Sun Belt? Allow him to explain:

“This year, 11 starters return and they make my Going Up Box in four difference categories. They were +49 yards-per-game in Sun Belt play and all indicators point up. They are 43-6 at home the last 8 years and are my pick to win the rugged East.”

4. Miami

“This year, nine starters are back, including (Tyler) Van Dyke and he should thrive in the new offense,” says Steele of the Hurricanes, loving their experience, especially at QB, mixed in with some new play-calling. However, even with improvement from the program, Steele believes a tough schedule stands in the way of a return to the ACC championship game.

“Miami has talent and the right coach but have 3 ACC road games vs. contenders and a home game vs. Clemson and may be a year away from making a run at the ACC title.” The ‘Canes don’t need to make the playoff or anything, but they just need to get back to a bowl and at least stay in the mix in the league race.

5. UTEP

Phil Steele is giddy about the Miners offense this year. He writes: “QB (Gavin) Hardison, RB (Deion) Hankins and WR (Tyrin) Smith are all back and playing behind C-USA’s No. 1 offensive line. My computer is calling for a jump to 30.1 points-per-game!”

He’s still got Western Kentucky atop the standings in Conference USA but has UTEP and that tremendous offense nipping at the Hilltoppers’ heels. Following a 5-7 year and missing a bowl, Steele expects them to bulldoze their way back into the postseason and perhaps even participate in the conference title game.

6. Florida Atlantic

FAU is in a new conference with a new coach, but does get a lot of its offensive playmakers back and adds an experienced power conference quarterback in senior Casey Thompson. He’ll have a 1,000-yard rusher and a 500-yard rusher back plus the Owls’ top receiver in ’22 and four of their top five.

It’s no wonder Steele likes them with a friendly schedule in year one of AAC play. “Despite the step up in league play, they have four winnable road games,” he writes. “If they take care of business at home they could be a surprise contender in the reconfigured AAC.”

7. Louisiana

After three straight seasons of 10+ wins from 2019 to 2021, the Ragin’ Cajuns stumbled and fell below .500 at 6-7, although still made a bowl game. Steele isn’t expecting them to return to double-digit wins but does think they can compete in the Sun Belt West.

He touts the improvement of the offensive line as one reason for optimism, since they were the strength of the team a few years ago but fell off last fall. A fortified group up front plus the return of the top three guys in the QB room and a number of receivers and running backs makes for a reason to expect improvement from the Cajuns.

8. Miami (Ohio)

While Miami does lose the incredibly-named wideout Mac Hippenhammer, the Redhawks return starters at seven positions, including their quarterback duo, top rusher and the next two receivers behind Hippenhammer. They should have been a pretty strong group last year but lost starting QB Brett Gabbert for eight games in the season-opener vs. Kentucky.

Phil Steele foresees “big time improvement this season” for that offense with Gabbert, the younger brother of NFL backup Blaine Gabbert. As for the defense, he says that “nine starters are back so naturally the unit should improve.”

9. Northern Illinois

Steele says “most signs are pointing up this year” for NIU following their very down 3-9 campaign from last fall. Last year, the Huskies were really hindered by injuries on offense, with their quarterback room rotating so often that no passer hit the 1,000-yard mark. Meanwhile, some of their running backs suffered injuries too.

Despite all that, NIU still put up 27 points a game throughout the year but gave up more than 32. With Steele’s No. 1 ranked offensive line in the MAC and likely a healthier unit as a whole, the offense should thrive. But it’s the defense that needs to improve to make Steele good on his prediction.

10. Auburn

After a tough 5-7 year that led to the ouster of former head coach Bryan Harsin, Auburn enters a new era for their football program, and Phil Steele expects more winning immediately. With eight starters back on offense and nine returning on defense, the trajectory is looking way up.

“All nine sets of my power rankings call for a winning season,” wrote Steele of the Tigers. “There is no weekly talk about when a coach will be fired as the team is fully behind both Hugh Freeze and Cadillac Williams and will play to their potential with 17 returning starters and some solid transfers.”

11. Boston College

Phil Steele is calling for major improvement for the Eagles and boy could Jeff Hafley use it after an abysmal 3-9 season a year ago. On paper, it’s a puzzling choice since BC lost its longtime quarterback, a first round pick at wide receiver, and didn’t have a single running back hit 500 yards last season. So, what’s to like?

Well, Steele is enthralled by quarterback Emmett Morehead, who stepped in and matched stats with Doug Flutie in his debut against NC State last year after Phil Jurkovec was injured. With the offense fully in his hands plus a much-improved O-line, Steele is placing some optimism in Boston College.

12. Baylor

The Bears were picked to win the Big 12 last fall but came up well short of those expectations to finish with a 6-7 record and a loss to Air Force in the bowl game. Heading into this fall, though, Phil Steele likes what Dave Aranda is cooking up.

“This year they make my Most Improved list and they were +24 yards-per-game in in Big 12 play and will be a prime contender in the wide open Big 12,” says Steele. Although, he still has them picked to finish fifth out of 14 in this one-year mutation of the conference.

13. Army

The Black Knights followed up a pair of nine-win seasons in the first couple years of the decade with a 6-6 campaign in 2022. But Army is throwing a wrench into their operation this year and changing up their offensive style a bit to include more passes compared to their typical triple-option approach.

“It will be different watching Army’s offense out of the shotgun,” says Steele. “Still, the run game and defense remain strong and despite a tougher schedule, Army will improve and get back to a bowl.”

14. Navy

How appropriate, one branch of our nation’s military right after the other. Like Army, Steele expects Navy “will certainly throw the ball more this year” as they return a trio of quarterbacks who could all see snaps this season. The Midshipmen have now finished with four wins or less in three straight years, but Phil sees that changing in 2023.

“They were better than their record last year and their defense remains stout,” claims Steele. “So the Middies make my Most Improved list in (Brian) Newberry’s first season.”

15. Nebraska

Like Navy, Nebraska also boasts a brand new head coach in Matt Rhule, who’s been a breath of fresh air after the Scott Frost experience of the last few years. Plenty of experience plus a change at head coach has Steele believing the Huskers can top their 4-8 mark from 2022.

“Rhule does have 15 starters returning and gives them a coaching upgrade. His first two stops he has just 2 and 1 wins his first year. But (Nebraska) was -3 in close games last year and six of my nine power ratings are calling for bowl eligibility.” So, Steele expects improvement, but not a giant leap.

16. Georgia Southern

Georgia Southern is not typically a strong football program even at the mid-major level, but in year one under former USC head coach Clay Helton, the Eagles doubled their win total from three in 2021 to six with a bowl appearance in 2022. They also beat the previous team on this list in a 45-42 barnburner. In 2023, Helton’s second, Phil Steele is calling for another leap.

“This year they have 13 starters back but I like the addition of QB Davis Brin from Tulsa, and Helton’s squad was far above my expectations last year,” Steele writes. And around Brin, Georgia Southern returns its two top receivers, leading rusher and 115 starts on the offensive line.

Phil Steele certainly has some bold predictions, notably at the top, where he sees Texas A&M and Oklahoma taking massive leaps forward after they were punching bags in their respective conferences a year ago. He also showed plenty of love to smaller-conference schools, for those of you who really like to get into the nitty-gritty of college football.