College Football Betting Picks Week 11: Who wins Playoff elimination game between Alabama and LSU?

The road team is the favorite in eight of the 12 games we’re examining this week. What does that mean? Crazy things will probably happen.

Alabama at LSU (+2.5) Total: 57.5

Andy: These are not the best two teams in the SEC, and winning this game doesn’t guarantee the winner will win out and make the College Football Playoff. But the loser probably is out, barring mass chaos everywhere else. LSU struggled mightily against a mobile QB when Texas A&M switched to Marcel Reed in the Tigers’ last game. But LSU also dominated mobile Taylen Green a week earlier against Arkansas. Jalen Milroe is a better version of Reed and Green, so can LSU’s defense contain him?
The pick: ALABAMA TO COVER

Ari: If you wanted regular-season Playoff games, this is it. Speaking of not being able to get Texas A&M games out of my head, I can’t shake the feeling of how bad LSU looked in the second half against the Aggies. Alabama has a better offense, and if it is playing at a high level, the Crimson Tide are still tough to beat. Yes, the game is in Tiger Stadium, but Alabama plays its way back into the Playoff picture on Saturday.
The pick: ALABAMA TO COVER 

Georgia at Ole Miss (+2.5) Total: 54.5

Andy: I have no idea which version of Georgia and which version of Ole Miss show up for this game. If Rebels receiver Tre Harris can play, it adds more firepower to a Rebels offense that looked unstoppable against Arkansas. Meanwhile, the Georgia defense that played against Florida looked vulnerable before a QB injury saved it. The Georgia defense that played against Texas looked unbeatable. Here’s guessing the Bulldogs show up for a big game.
The pick: GEORGIA TO COVER

Ari: What is the biggest win Lane Kiffin has had at Ole Miss? There are a lot of things to like about the Rebels in this matchup, but Kiffin has not been able to win the big games that get his team over the hump. Georgia played poorly against Florida, and Ole Miss put up 63 on Saturday, but it’s hard to overlook the coaches on both sidelines.
The pick: GEORGIA TO COVER 

Florida at Texas (-21.5) Total: 48.5

Andy: Florida has played better each week on both lines of scrimmage, but how much will that matter when an elite opponent knows it’s going up against the Gators’ QB3?

UPDATE: After Ari and I recorded the picks show, Florida coach Billy Napier said there is a chance QB D.J. Lagway (hamstring) could play on Saturday. “We have not completely ruled him out,” Napier said. Unless I hear Lagway is playing, I’m sticking with my original pick. But all eyes will be on the SEC availability reports on Wednesday and Thursday. And this line could make a serious move if Lagway is trending toward playing.
The pick: TEXAS TO COVER

Ari: You can’t ignore how much better Florida has been playing, especially after the Gators won at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against Georgia on Saturday. The problem? With a third-string quarterback, it seems highly unlikely Florida is going to be able to score many points in Austin.
The pick: TEXAS TO COVER

Iowa at UCLA (+5.5) Total: 44.5

Andy: We’re an Iowa Over podcast now, and as promised last week, the proceeds of a bet on Iowa and Wisconsin going over 42.5 were sent to the Stead Family Children’s Hospital in Iowa City. The linemakers seem to be onto the Hawkeyes, though. These totals are creeping up every week. Can Kaleb Johnson and company break 40 on a Friday night in Pasadena against a UCLA team that just shocked Nebraska? Maybe, but the Bruins also looked capable of helping the cause.
The pick: OVER 44.5

Ari: The Hawkeyes over thing was a bit. But with one of the most explosive running backs in college football and a unit that is starting to figure things out, Iowa has now scored 40 — by itself — in back-to-back weeks. Also, UCLA has had a brutal schedule and is starting to show signs of life, too.
The pick: OVER 44.5

Michigan at Indiana (-14.5) Total: 48.5

Andy: While we’re on the subject of linemakers finally figuring out a season-long trend, they’ve finally gotten on board with Indiana — which hasn’t won by fewer than 14 points this season. That said, it’s still jarring to see Michigan getting more than two touchdowns in Bloomington. But if Indiana keeps playing like it has, the Hoosiers will cover.
The pick: INDIANA TO COVER

Ari: Vegas is starting to catch up to how good Indiana actually is this season. Though Michigan fought hard and competed with Oregon, the Wolverines are just too limited offensively to hang with a team as legitimately good as Indiana. Everyone has been waiting for the Hoosiers letdown, but Indiana has yet to beat a team this season by less than 14.
The pick: INDIANA TO COVER 

Iowa State at Kansas (+3.5) Total: 50.5

Andy: I included this because it’s the quintessential 2024 Big 12 spread. Ari joked on the show when conference play started that we need to get a coin minted with +3.5 on one side and -3.5 on the other. This is a team that went into last week undefeated favored by only 3.5 against a 2-6 team. The Big 12, ladies and gentlemen!
The pick: KANSAS MONEY LINE

Ari: I’ve been on record saying Iowa State is a dangerous team that could surprise some people this year. I’m not going to punt on the idea that the Cyclones are good enough to win the Big 12 because of a tough loss, something that the vast majority of teams experienced before Iowa State did.
The pick: IOWA STATE TO COVER 

Miami at Georgia Tech (+11.5) Total: 63.5

Andy: I think Mario Cristobal can erase all the kneeling jokes with a decisive win against the team he refused to win against last year. Will QB Haynes King play for Georgia Tech this week? Will it matter as long as Cam Ward is playing for Miami?
The pick: MIAMI TO COVER

Ari: It feels like Miami’s defense is going to catch up to it at a certain point this year. But all Miami does is keep winning. Why? Because the Cam Ward-led offense is the best offense in college football. Even if Miami’s defense gives up some points, I have a hard time seeing Georgia Tech being able to stay within 12. 
The pick: MIAMI TO COVER

Colorado at Texas Tech (+3.5) Total: 62.5

Andy: Time to pull out our custom Big 12 coin for another 3.5-point spread. Colorado has gotten better with each passing week, and Travis Hunter just had a week off to get more healthy. If the Buffaloes can win this one, they’ll have a realistic path to the Big 12 title game.
The pick: COLORADO TO COVER

Ari: Colorado is having an amazing season. Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter get all the headlines, but the Buffaloes’ lines have been playing much better than we anticipated. If it goes out and beats Texas Tech, Colorado could legitimately control its own destiny to the College Football Playoff by Sunday.
The pick: COLORADO TO COVER  

Oklahoma at Missouri (-2.5) Total: 42.5

Andy: Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz said he expects QB Brady Cook (ankle, hand) to return at some point this season. This line suggests it isn’t this week. (Which means the line could move significantly if we learn Cook can play.) If this is a Drew Pyne game, Oklahoma’s defense is good enough to keep the score low enough for the Sooners to have a chance. With guard Jacob Sexton “out for a while” according to Brent Venables last week, Oklahoma’s blocking will remain an adventure on every play.
The pick: SHRUG EMOJI — FINE, OKLAHOMA TO COVER

Ari: Oklahoma’s offensive line was an issue all season and now it has sustained another injury up front. Though we’re not sure if Brady Cook is going to play for Missouri, the Sooners just haven’t been a functional team in SEC play.
The pick: MISSOURI TO COVER 

South Carolina at Vanderbilt (+3.5) Total: 46.5

Andy: What happens when the two most dangerous middle-of-their-conference-pack teams play one another? We’re about to find out. South Carolina’s offensive line played better than it has in years against Texas A&M. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt allowed practically nothing on the ground against an Auburn team that had run on everyone else. This one feels like a coin flip, and fortunately we have our Big 12 3.5-point coin that we’ll use just this once for an SEC game.
The pick: SOUTH CAROLINA TO COVER

Ari: Talk about an impossible game to pick. Both teams have played at a really high level, but I just can’t get my mind off of how well the Gamecocks played on Saturday in the blowout of Texas A&M. LaNorris Sellers is a special talent, Rocket Sanders is one of the best running backs in the sport and the lines are really good.
The pick: SOUTH CAROLINA TO COVER

Washington at Penn State (-13.5) Total: 45.5

Andy: The Huskies bowed up in the red zone to beat USC. Penn State failed in the red zone and lost to Ohio State. Penn State has a much better roster, and the Nittany Lions’ defense should be able to keep Washington’s offense in check enough to win the game, but this feels like a lot of points.
The pick: WASHINGTON TO COVER

Ari: This seems like a tough spot for a heartbroken Penn State team. The Nittany Lions are a one-dimensional team, but they are still much better than Washington. This is going to be a White Out, but imagine the juice had Penn State beaten Ohio State. There is still a lot for Penn State to play for, but 13.5 seems like too many points. Penn State wins, just not by enough.
The pick: WASHINGTON TO COVER 

BYU at Utah (+4.5) Total: 42.5

Andy: The last time these two teams met as conference opponents was 2010, and there may not be a more bitter rivalry in the country. That’s probably why this is such a low spread even though one of the teams is undefeated and the other is having its worst season in more than 20 years. Whether it’s Isaac Wilson or Brandon Rose, it’s still difficult to imagine the Utes mustering enough points to beat BYU unless some pure rivalry magic happens.
The pick: BYU TO COVER

Ari: Name one thing that has gone right for Utah this year. Yes, the Holy War is a bitter rivalry in weird things tend to happen in games like this, but BYU is a much better football team this year. That’s going my North Star in picking this one.
The pick: BYU TO COVER