College Football Betting Picks Week 12: Can Georgia stay alive for Playoffs against Tennessee?

One potential College Football Playoff elimination game has given us another. Ole Miss stayed in the hunt by pounding Georgia in Oxford, and that sets up a showdown in Athens this week where the Bulldogs will fight for their playoff lives against Tennessee. Meanwhile, USC and Nebraska will fight for bowl eligibility and the Big 12 may continue to eat itself…

Tennessee at Georgia (-9.5) Total: 48.5

Andy: After watching Georgia up close at Ole Miss on Saturday, it’s clear this version of the Bulldogs is not on the same level as the teams of the previous three seasons. That doesn’t mean Georgia can’t still beat Tennessee and make the College Football Playoff. But Carson Beck has nine interceptions in his last four games, and the offense lacks explosiveness. Meanwhile, Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava missed the second half of the Mississippi State game after taking a big hit, and he and his receivers have been unable to connect on deep balls regularly. I don’t feel particularly confident about the point spread pick, but I feel very confident about the under.
The pick: TENNESSEE TO COVER, UNDER 48.5

Ari: I was in the press box for the Ole Miss-Georgia game. I saw Ole Miss look better in every facet of that game for four quarters. Though Tennessee isn’t nearly as prolific offensively, I think the Volunteers’ defense can do a lot of the same things to Georgia. Maybe Georgia will turn back into a giant on Saturday, but 10.5 is way too many points. I think Tennessee has a real chance to win.
The pick: TENNESSEE MONEY LINE

LSU at Florida (+4.5) Total: 55.5

Andy: This spread seems awfully low after watching Florida get demolished by Texas on Saturday, but if Gators QB D.J. Lagway does return from the hamstring injury that kept him out in Austin, it’s probably pretty reasonable. LSU is out of the CFP after getting drilled at home by Alabama, and it’s unclear how motivated the Tigers will be for this road trip. Florida announced last week that it is retaining coach Billy Napier, but a win certainly would help eliminate any lingering doubt. LSU coach Brian Kelly isn’t in any danger of getting fired, but he’s going to be dealing with an apoplectic fan base if he loses this one (or any other game this season).
The pick: FLORIDA TO COVER

Ari: This line assumes DJ Lagway plays. Though I’m not sure Florida is going to want to run him all that much with a hamstring injury, LSU has proven it hasn’t been able to defend mobile quarterbacks. With Lagway at the helm and a home crowd that has to be behind this team, the Gators play well and maybe even win.
The pick: FLORIDA TO COVER 

UCLA at Washington (-3.5) Total: 45.5

Andy: The Bruins have won three in a row after starting the season 1-5. They struggled to run the ball all season, but they averaged 5.4 yards a carry against Iowa last week. Deshaun Foster’s team may be finding its identity, and if it can win two of the last three, UCLA can go to a bowl and further develop that identity. Friday, the Bruins face a Washington defense that has allowed opponents to average at least 4.7 yards a carry in five of its past six games.
The pick: UCLA TO COVER

Ari: The most impressive thing about UCLA’s win over Iowa on Friday night was how the Bruins controlled the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. UCLA had a really difficult schedule, but it has proven in these three consecutive wins that it’s much better than we thought. Give me the points.
The pick: UCLA TO COVER

Texas at Arkansas (+16.5) Total: 56.5

Andy: A few weeks ago, this would have felt like free money. But Arkansas struggled against LSU and then absolutely collapsed defensively against Ole Miss. Razorbacks QB Taylen Green has a sprained knee, and tailback Ja’Quinden Jackson has missed three consecutive games with an ankle injury. Their status remains in question. Meanwhile, Texas had a palate cleanser game against Florida. The Longhorns are at least as potent offensively as the Ole Miss team that hung 63 on Arkansas on Nov. 2. 
The pick: TEXAS TO COVER

Ari: At a point in the season, it felt like Arkansas was a really underappreciated team. But the Razorbacks seem to have lost their mojo, which was especially evident in the blowout loss to Ole Miss in which they gave up 63 points. The Longhorns are trying to get their back and they’re on the way to doing so. This is a lot of points, but I’ll lay them.
The pick: TEXAS TO COVER

Clemson at Pittsburgh (+9.5) Total: 55.5

Andy: Clemson will need help to make the ACC title game, because a loss to Louisville — combined with Miami’s win against Louisville — means the Hurricanes hold a tiebreaker. All the Tigers can do is keep winning. If they beat the Panthers, they’ll finish ACC play at 7-1. Meanwhile, the Panthers have lost two in a row after starting 7-0. With Louisville next, they’re in danger of losing four of their last five.
The pick: CLEMSON TO COVER

Ari: Clemson needs some help to get back into the ACC title hunt, but the Tigers are still a really sold 10-win team. Pittsburgh got off to a 7-0 start, but the Panthers looked pretty bad in their loss to Virginia over the weekend. This won’t be the most aesthetically pleasing game, but I expect Clemson to stay a Miami loss away from the ACC Championship Game.
The pick: CLEMSON TO COVER 

Utah at Colorado (-10.5) Total: 47.5

Andy: The rare double-digit Big 12 spread is an indicator of just how well Colorado has played lately. Since taking their only conference loss against Kansas State on Oct. 12, the Buffs are 3-0 with an average margin of victory of 17.3 points. Utah nearly handed BYU its first loss of the season Saturday after QB Brandon Rose made the offense look much more functional than it has been for most of the season. But that was a rivalry game in front of a record home crowd. This game is on the road at 10 a.m. local time, and the other team has a lot more NFL players than the ones who have beaten the Utes already this season.
The pick: COLORADO TO COVER

Ari: Colorado controls its own destiny to make the College Football Playoff. That isn’t sensationalism. That’s real. Colorado has been a really good team this year and is playing really well. It has great top-end talent. I’m not going to be fooled by the Utah near-win over BYU. Buffaloes roll.
The pick: COLORADO TO COVER 

Missouri at South Carolina (-13.5) Total: 43.5

Andy: South Carolina is playing as well as any team in the country, and I’d really love to see this version of the Gamecocks against some of the teams we think will make the CFP. Missouri survived Oklahoma last week despite having to play without injured QB1 Brady Cook and remains mathematically alive for the SEC title game and the CFP. But the math may stop working even if Cook can play. That might not be enough against the Gamecocks, who pressure the quarterback better than just about anyone in the country.
The pick: SOUTH CAROLINA TO COVER

Ari: South Carolina is playing like a top-10 team right now. While Missouri is technically still alive in the CFP hunt, South Carolina is one result away from being ranked in the top-15 and on the cusp of something special. Still, the Gamecocks are humming and Missouri just won’t be able to keep pace on the road.
The pick: SOUTH CAROLINA TO COVER

Virginia at Notre Dame (-22.5) Total: 50.5

Andy: The Cavaliers need one more win to get bowl eligible, but given the schedule (Notre Dame, SMU, Virginia Tech), that win will have to be an upset. The possibility seems unlikely against a Notre Dame team that feels as if it has hit its stride in the past few weeks. The Fighting Irish finally seem to have figured out how best to use QB Riley Leonard — or perhaps Leonard finally got healthy and this is the version we remember from his time at Duke. Either way, it’s working.
The pick: NOTRE DAME TO COVER

Ari: Things have been too easy for Notre Dame since it lost to NIU. While I think Notre Dame is probably 24 points better than Virginia, I’m picking a spot here. I’m picking Notre Dame to win, obviously, but I think this is a place on the schedule where the Irish are susceptible to not playing its most efficient football. I may look like a fool on Sunday, but I think Virginia keeps this closer than people are anticipating.
The pick: VIRGINIA TO COVER 

Nebraska at USC (-8.5) Total: 50.5

Andy: Both these teams need this win desperately for bowl eligibility purposes. Both made changes during the open week following yet another stunning loss. USC coach Lincoln Riley is turning over the offense to UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava. Nebraska brought in former West Virginia and Houston coach Dana Holgorsen as an offensive consultant. Nebraska QB Dylan Raiola, who was injured at the end of the loss to UCLA, is expected to play.
The pick: USC TO COVER

Ari: This is a very intriguing game because USC has made a change at quarterback. Will Jayden Maiava do something to ignite this Trojans offense? Maybe. But if that were the big difference, what took Lincoln Riley so long to make that change? Nebraska likes to play in one-possession games. Even if the Cornhuskers lose, 8.5 seems like too many points.
The pick: NEBRASKA TO COVER 

Oregon at Wisconsin (+14.5) Total: 52.5

Andy: The Ducks are buzzsawing through their first season in the Big Ten. At the start of the year, this looked like a tricky spot. It doesn’t anymore.
The pick: OREGON TO COVER

Ari: This spread seems small. Yes, Oregon didn’t cover against Maryland, but the Ducks were firmly in control of the game last week. I just don’t see what Wisconsin brings to the table — other than a home environment — to keep this game close.
The pick: OREGON TO COVER 

Kansas at BYU (-3.5) Total: 55.5

Andy: Let’s pull out our official Big 12 Pick ’em Coin — it says plus-3.5 on one side and minus-3.5 on the other — for a game between one of the league’s hottest teams and the league’s lone undefeated team (which seems to keep surviving by the skin of its teeth). I gave you the Kansas money line against Iowa State last week, and the Jayhawks indeed won. I’m not as confident this week, but I still think the Jayhawks can pull the upset.
The pick: KANSAS TO COVER

Ari: BYU has been tremendous at finding ways to wins games that seem loss. There is a reason the Cougars are undefeated. But this is the Big 12 and Kansas is finding itself. The Jayhawks aren’t what their record says they are. This is a prime spot for more Big 12 craziness.
The pick: KANSAS MONEY LINE