College Football Betting Picks Week 13: Can Indiana stun Ohio State?

Curt Cignetti (sort of) predicted back in December that Indiana-Ohio State would be the biggest game in the country the weekend before Thanksgiving. No one believed him, but here we are.

Let’s pick some games…

Indiana at Ohio State (-11.5) Total: 52.5

Andy: Vegas thinks this is the week Indiana turns into a pumpkin. I’m not so sure. The Hoosiers have receivers (Elijah Sarrat and Omar Cooper) who can stretch the field better than Penn State’s receivers. Indiana’s defense only allows 2.5 yards per carry. If it can limit Ohio State’s run game the way Nebraska did, the Hoosiers will have a chance.
The pick: INDIANA TO COVER

Ari: Curt Cignetti has done an unbelievable job turning around Indiana. The Hoosiers are legitimately a very good football team, one that can beat the majority of teams in the College Football Playoff race. But are they good enough to play four quarters with the deepest, most talented team in college football? That’s a tough ask. I expect a close game, but Ohio State covers late.
The pick: OHIO STATE TO COVER 

Ole Miss at Florida (-9.5) Total: 55.5

Andy: The Rebels got a week off after crushing Georgia, and that probably eliminates any trap game vibes. Florida quarterback D.J. Lagway’s mobility likely will still be limited by his hamstring injury. While that didn’t keep him from beating LSU, it likely will be much more difficult against an Ole Miss pass rush that leads the nation in sacks.
The pick: OLE MISS TO COVER

Ari: Ole miss is 8.5-1 to win the national title this year, and I think the Rebels may be the team I’d most likely pick to do it all. I love their quarterback, receivers, running back and defensive line. They are peaking at the right time. Florida could play its best possible game and still lose by 10. 
The pick: OLE MISS TO COVER  

Colorado at Kansas (+2.5) Total: 59.5

Andy: Colorado controls its destiny to reach the Big 12 title game, but Kansas might be the hottest team in the league. The Jayhawks beat Iowa State and then handed BYU its first loss of the season. That BYU win was a rock fight. Expect this one to feature more scoring, and Colorado has the better quarterback and better receivers.
The pick: COLORADO TO COVER

Ari: Colorado has been blowing people out in the Big 12. My head is telling me the Buffaloes won’t have a problem playing Kansas in Arrowhead Stadium, but my gut is telling me this is a spot that could make for some ore Big 12 craziness. I predicted that Kansas would beat BYU or Colorado heading into last weekend. Can they do both? Kansas is hot, but Colorado is hotter.
The pick: COLORADO TO COVER

UPDATE: On the show, Ari said he’d flip his pick to Kansas if the line rose to 3.5. Andy said Colorado will win by at least a touchdown. So they’ve placed a bet on Colorado (-7). If Colorado covers, Ari has to run a 5k and Andy will jog alongside and live stream it. If Kansas covers plus-seven, Andy has to donate $20 to Northwestern’s $850 million stadium renovation project.

BYU at Arizona State (-3.5) Total: 48.5

Andy: We pull out our custom-minted Big 12 3.5 coin for a matchup that likely will determine one of the participants in the Big 12 title game. That Arizona State is slightly favored accurately reflects the state of things. BYU lived dangerously for multiple weeks until Kansas finally broke through and beat the Cougars. After losing to Texas Tech and Cincinnati, Arizona State has quietly won three in a row. 
The pick: ARIZONA STATE TO COVER

Ari: So much about this time of the year is who is peaking. There is no question that Arizona State, who is still alive in the Big 12 race, is feeling better about its trajectory than BYU. The Cougars were a great story this year, but this line is pretty revealing in terms of who may just be the better team. Watch out for those Sun Devils.
The pick: ARIZONA STATE TO COVER

Kentucky at Texas (-20.5) Total: 46.5

Andy: Kentucky having only one SEC win and that win being at Ole Miss is one of the more bizarre outcomes this season. Arkansas slowed the Texas offense last week after it appeared Texas had gotten back on track against Florida. A recipe for an upset? Not quite. Texas wins, but Kentucky might be able to muck the game up enough to cover.
The pick: KENTUCKY TO COVER

Ari: If you’re looking for some SEC results that go off the rails, look somewhere else. Yes, Kentucky did manage to beat Ole Miss in its only conference win this year. And yes, Texas isn’t necessarily lighting the world on fire right now. But the Longhorns, when playing well, possess too much firepower on both sides of the ball for this to be close. This is going to be a get-right game for Texas.
The pick: TEXAS TO COVER

Wisconsin at Nebraska (-2.5) Total: 42.5

Andy: The Badgers pushed Oregon for four quarters and then fired offensive coordinator Phil Longo the next day. Meanwhile, Dana Holgorsen did not come off the street and immediately fix Nebraska’s offense. This total is understandably low. Basically, this is two 5-5 teams that might not be able to win game 12 trying to get bowl eligible. Nebraska, which hasn’t made a bowl since the 2016 season, is more desperate.
The pick: NEBRASKA TO COVER

Ari: Wisconsin fired offensive coordinator Phil Longo on Monday. Does that mean the Badgers are just going to revert back to smash-mouth football? They did run the ball really effectively against Oregon. Also, is Nebraska cursed? Is it really going to miss a bowl game? Really? This is a difficult game to project, but Nebraska has to figure out a way to get it done. Pick: Nebraska 
The pick: NEBRASKA TO COVER (UNLESS IT’S REALLY A CURSE)

Penn State at Minnesota (+12.5) Total: 45.5

Andy: Minnesota is exactly the kind of team that can drag Penn State into a competitive game, and the Golden Gophers will have had two weeks to prepare. But Minnesota also is the kind of opponent that Penn State can dominate in a two-touchdown win that feels like a five-touchdown win. The question is whether Penn State lets Minnesota hang around.
The pick: PENN STATE TO COVER

Ari: Minnesota seemed to be turning it on during its four-game winning streak, but it lost to Rutgers its last time out. Penn State has done a tremendously good job of taking care of overmatched opponents. It seems like a spot that Max Brosmer could give the Nittany Lions some trouble, but Penn State could win this game by two touchdowns without playing an amazing game.
The pick: PENN STATE TO COVER

Army vs. Notre Dame (-15.5) Total: 44.5

Andy: This feels similar to Notre Dame’s game against Navy. Like the Midshipmen, the Black Knights come in undefeated. But like Navy, Army’s defensive line will be at a serious size disadvantage against Notre Dame’s offensive line. If the Fighting Irish lean on Army the same way they leaned on Navy, the result could be similar.
The pick: NOTRE DAME TO COVER

Ari: Army is going to pay the price in this pick for what Notre Dame did to Navy. Granted, Navy fumbled the ball in that game 200 times and gave the Irish an easy win, but the Black Knights may be in for a similar fate. It doesn’t need to be as lopsided as the Navy game for Notre Dame to cover. The Irish are humming right now.
The pick: NOTRE DAME TO COVER 

Alabama at Oklahoma (+13.5) Total: 47.5

Andy: When we last left Oklahoma, the Sooners were suffering an improbable scoop-and-score loss at Missouri. Now they need a win against either the Crimson Tide or LSU to get bowl eligible. That win probably isn’t coming Saturday.
The pick: ALABAMA TO COVER

Ari: What’s the path for Oklahoma keeping this game close? I legitimately just don’t see it. Oklahoma is ready to wrap up the season and try to figure out how to assemble a roster that’s more equipped to block someone.
The pick: ALABAMA TO COVER 

Iowa at Maryland (+6.5) Total: 45.5

Andy: We pick the Iowa total every time the Hawkeyes play, and our Iowa over streak got snapped at UCLA. Vegas has gotten wise to this version of Iowa’s defense, but here’s guessing the Maryland and Iowa offenses come through.
The pick: OVER 45.5

Ari: Iowa’s offense is better and its defense is worse. Give me the over. This is an Iowa over podcast. 
The pick: OVER 45.5

Texas A&M at Auburn (+2.5) Total: 46.5

Andy: What does Vegas know that we don’t here? This one isn’t that mysterious. Auburn has only one SEC win but has been in all of those losses except the one at Georgia. Texas A&M’s last conference game was a decisive loss at South Carolina. The question is whether Auburn’s offense, which scored only seven against Vanderbilt, can do anything against the Aggies’ defense.
The pick: TEXAS A&M TO COVER

Ari: Auburn is the best bad football team in college football this year. I know everyone is thinking the Texas-Texas A&M game is going to be for a spot in the College Football Playoff, but I have a sneaky suspicion that this weird line is telling us something.
The pick: AUBURN MONEY LINE

Vanderbilt at LSU (-8.5) Total: 54.5

Andy: LSU is in bad shape. The Tigers had given up only six sacks all season, and then they gave up seven to Florida (which doesn’t exactly have a ferocious pass rush). Meanwhile, after the Gators didn’t use designed QB runs — because of QB Lagway was limited by injury — expect Vandy to offer a steady diet of Diego Pavia runs.
The pick: VANDERBILT TO COVER

Ari: LSU’s defense’s kryptonite this season has been stopping running quarterbacks. Just picturing Clark Lea dialing up a bunch of designed quarterback runs has me wondering. LSU is also broken. Two scores against a hungry Vanderbilt team seems like too much.
The pick: VANDERBILT TO COVER

USC at UCLA (+4.5) Total: 51.5

Andy: The best uniform matchup in college football might be the first truly great Big Ten After Dark game. USC needs this for bowl eligibility, because beating Notre Dame seems unlikely. UCLA could combine a win against USC and a win next week against Fresno State to earn a bowl berth and complete a first season under Deshaun Foster that seemed improbable a month ago. USC didn’t look appreciably different against Nebraska with Jayden Maiava at quarterback. UCLA’s magic ran out against Washington on Saturday, but no visitor has won at Husky Stadium all season. UCLA always seems to play up for this game. USC doesn’t always do that.
The pick: UCLA TO COVER 

Ari: Does USC feel like a different team now that Jayden Maiava is starting at quarterback? It did beat Nebraska, but I don’t think so. UCLA still has a chance at bowl eligibility and it usually plays pretty well in this game. Give me the Bruins. Pick: UCLA 
The pick: UCLA TO COVER