Picking the games of week 8: Georgia as an underdog? Vegas loves Indiana against Nebraska

The 2024 season just keeps getting weirder, and the week eight lines reflect that.

Linemakers favoring Texas at home against Georgia isn’t particularly surprising given what we’ve seen the past few weeks, but the Bulldogs haven’t been underdawgs since Sept. 4, 2021 against Clemson. So seeing a plus next to the name is still shocking.

Meanwhile, bettors saw the opening line of Nebraska-Indiana and said “the Hoosiers aren’t favored by enough.” Try explaining that one to someone in 1995, 2005 or any other year.

Also, Michigan at Illinois is basically a pick ’em — just like we drew it up before the season.

So let’s pick the games…

Georgia at Texas (-3.5) Total: 55.5

Andy: The new version of the SEC will give us this kind of clash of titans more often, and it’s probably going to be awesome every time. Georgia doesn’t often play teams that can match up this well physically, and the Longhorns’ offense has looked more explosive than the Bulldogs’ offense so far this season. But Georgia needs this win. I’m not sure Texas does. I’m curious to see what that means for Kirby Smart’s team, because we haven’t seen a Georgia team need a win in the regular season in a long time.
The pick: GEORGIA TO COVER

Ari: It’s weird to see Georgia in bigger need of a regular-season win in the middle of October than its opponent, but that’s reality here. Want more reality? Texas has a better quarterback, offensive line and receiving corps than this Bulldogs team. Georgia’s defense is nasty, but Texas has been a more functional, complete team this season. This is the chance for the Longhorns to flex their muscle at home. 
The pick: TEXAS TO COVER

Alabama at Tennessee (+2.5) Total: 55.5

Andy: This feels similar to Ole Miss-LSU last week. The loser isn’t eliminated from College Football Playoff contention. But it’s tough to imagine that team running the table against its remaining schedule. Alabama simply isn’t as fearsome as it was in the Nick Saban era, and the Crimson Tide were lucky to beat South Carolina. But Tennessee’s offense has looked stuck in mud for the Volunteers’ past two games. If that doesn’t get better, Tennessee won’t be able to keep pace against a team that will make better game-management choices than Florida did.
The pick: ALABAMA TO COVER

Ari: This is the most difficult game of the week to feel strongly about, but Tennessee’s offense just hasn’t been good enough in the past few weeks to pick the Volunteers. Alabama could very well be on a two-game losing streak right now, but winning a close game in Neyland Stadium behind Jalen Milroe and Ryan Williams and that defense seems like a good bet.
The pick: ALABAMA TO COVER

LSU at Arkansas (+2.5) Total: 56.5

Andy: I blew it last week picking Ole Miss at LSU. The teams felt fairly even, and I should have taken into account where the game was played. Tiger Stadium at night provides a huge advantage. I picked Ole Miss, but I should have respected the home field advantage more and picked LSU. Reynolds Razorback Stadium doesn’t provide that big of an edge, but it is a very difficult place to play when Arkansas is good. And make no mistake — Arkansas is a very capable team this season. So this time I’m going to do what I should have last week and pick the home team.
The pick: ARKANSAS TO COVER

Ari: Brian Kelly has been so good at getting his teams to the 10-win mark and it seems like this LSU team is on the verge of turning the corner. While I think Arkansas is much better than people give it credit for, the Tigers defense is very much improved and Garrett Nussmeier has the ability to chuck it around a little bit. Could this be the beginning of a Playoff push for LSU?
The pick: LSU TO COVER

Nebraska at Indiana (-5.5) Total: 50.5

Andy: The Hoosiers haven’t scored fewer than 31 points all season. I feel comfortable saying that if they score that many Saturday, they’ll win. But this is by far the best defense Indiana will have played, so the score should be lower. Nebraska may not be the team that loses every one-score game anymore, but this feels like a one-score game. And if it is, Nebraska probably covers no matter who wins.
The pick: NEBRASKA TO COVER

Ari: Indiana has scored 40 points or more in the five games since its season opener and the Hoosiers are a legitimate Playoff contender. Though Indiana may have a harder time moving the football against a really good Nebraska defense, it should score enough points to be in the game in the fourth quarter and I trust Curt Cignetti’s team more to close out a one-possession game. Though I’ll take the 5.5 points on Nebraska’s side, I envision Indiana winning a close game.
The pick: NEBRASKA TO COVER

Miami at Louisville (+4.5) Total: 60.5

Andy: The Hurricanes have lived dangerously the past two games. It took a reversed call on a Hail Mary to beat Virginia Tech and a thrilling comeback to win at Cal. The Cardinals have lost twice (to good teams) but were in both games. Miami has the talent advantage here, but will the Hurricanes play it close again? 
The pick: MIAMI TO COVER

Ari: Because Miami almost lost consecutive games in the ACC, people are down on the Hurricanes just waiting for Mario Cristobal’s team to be exposed as frauds. Miami, though, has an electrifying quarterback and better players than Louisville across the board. This may be a tough game, but I think this is where Miami bounces back.
The pick: MIAMI TO COVER

South Carolina at Oklahoma (-2.5) Total: 40.5

Andy: Oklahoma’s offense is a mess, and South Carolina will bring elite edge talent to Norman. That’s a bad combination. The good news for the Sooners is their defense is still nasty, and South Carolina isn’t Texas offensively. Still, Oklahoma’s offense has to move the ball a little, and that may be difficult again if the coaching staff keeps scheming up slow-developing plays that force QB Michael Hawkins Jr. to work really hard every for every single yard.
The pick: SOUTH CAROLINA TO COVER

Ari: Oklahoma’s offense is broken. Though this game is being played in Norman, I’m not sure the Sooners are in position to be giving points to anyone right now. South Carolina is much better than people think, which would have been more evident if the Gamecocks found a way to close out the Alabama game Saturday. Give me South Carolina. 
The pick: SOUTH CAROLINA MONEY LINE (+114)

Auburn at Missouri (-6.5) Total: 51.5

Andy: Missouri needs to win this to have a realistic hope at making the CFP, but Auburn NEEDS to win this period. Auburn hasn’t been awful, but crippling turnovers cost Hugh Freeze’s team against Cal, Arkansas and Oklahoma. After this, Auburn is at Kentucky and home against Vanderbilt. Lose all three and 0-8 in the SEC is a real possibility. Win two or three and everything calms down. 
The pick: AUBURN TO COVER

Ari: Auburn’s quarterback situation has been a nightmare. An array of crippling turnovers has cost the Tigers repeatedly this season. But Auburn has moved the football — particularly on the ground — very well this season. Missouri is reeling from its blowout loss to Texas A&M, but this seems like a spot for Auburn to steal an SEC game on the road.
The pick: AUBURN MONEY LINE (+164) 

Michigan at Illinois (+1.5) Total: 43.5

Andy: Michigan’s decision to go with Jack Tuttle instead of Alex Orji at quarterback during the Washington game suggests Sherrone Moore feels the offense has a higher ceiling with the better passer running it. My fear for the Wolverines is that they’ll go from being a great running team that can’t throw to a decent running team that can sort of throw. That might not actually be better. Meanwhile, the Illini showed Saturday they can win a shootout — after they let Purdue back in the game. If Michigan is just OK throwing the ball and not as dynamic running the ball, Illinois can get a win that really wouldn’t be considered an upset.
The pick: ILLINOIS TO COVER

Ari: Though Michigan seems to have a higher upside with Jack Tuttle at the quarterback position, this Wolverines’ team is so fractured offensively. Bret Bielema is programmed to coach in these hard-fought games that are going to be won in the trenches. Luke Altmyer has been really good this season and Illinois is no pushover. Give me the Illini.
The pick: ILLINOIS TO COVER

Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech (+8.5) Total: 50.5

Andy: This is the rare neutral site game less than two miles from one of the teams’ campuses. I would imagine the Mercedes-Benz Stadium crowd is about a 50-50 split, but that shouldn’t be a huge factor. What should be is Georgia Tech’s ability to rope Notre Dame into a low-scoring slugfest that will make it hard to win by two scores. The trendy upset pick is Navy over Notre Dame next week, but don’t be shocked if the Yellow Jackets are the scarier opponent of the two.
The pick: GEORGIA TECH TO COVER

Ari: Even after Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois, I remained steadfast in my belief that Notre Dame is going to make the Playoff. That’s gotten a little more tricky now that Navy and Army are legitimately good, but Notre Dame’s offense has been much improved in recent weeks. Georgia Tech is a tough team that will likely give Notre Dame some issues, so I’m going to grab the points. I still think Notre Dame will win.
The pick: GEORGIA TECH TO COVER

Iowa at Michigan State (+6.5) Total: 41.5

Andy: We don’t always pick the Iowa spread, but we do always pick the Iowa total. What started as a running gag has gotten more interesting as the Hawkeyes have improved offensively. I can happily say that after a lot of jokes, we are now officially an Iowa over podcast.
The pick: OVER 41.5

Ari: Like Andy said, this is an Iowa over podcast. The Hawkeyes’ offense is going to the moon.
The pick: OVER 41.5

Kansas State at West Virginia (+2.5) Total: 53.5

Andy: This is essentially an elimination game in the Big 12 title race. West Virginia has three losses, but it has lost only once in Big 12 play (to undefeated Iowa State). Kansas State QB Avery Johnson, a first-year starter, looked like he’d grown up in the win at Colorado compared to the loss at BYU. But the hard fact is that a team that takes conference loss No. 2 this early in the season probably isn’t making the conference title game and therefore can’t make the CFP. That’s what makes this game so intriguing. So which team plays like the desperate team it actually is?
The pick: WEST VIRGINIA TO COVER

Ari: Kansas State may be coming off of a lost had Travis Hunter not been injured in the Colorado game Saturday night. But quarterback Avery Johnson made a big-time throw late in the game to lift a Wildcats team that is back in the Big 12 race. West Virginia is in that race, too, but the Mountaineers haven’t earned my faith to win a close game. 
The pick: KANSAS STATE TO COVER