College football isn't at risk of losing tons of coaches to the NFL but the hellscape demands could 'drive good coaches out of the business' entirely

College football has become a hellscape for coaches. 

The calendar is untenable. The hours are unsustainable. The strain from the transfer portal, NIL and the seemingly never-ending open and quiet recruiting periods is “driving coaches mad,” as one head coach told me at the AFCA Convention last month. 

“It’s all gone to shit,” said another Group of 5 head coach. 

“It’s driving good coaches out (of the business).”

Not yet, but it certainly might in the near future. 

On Wednesday night, Boston College head coach Jeff Hafley bolted Chestnut Hill, accepting the defensive coordinator job with the Green Bay Packers. 

Hafley’s move, coupled with Jim Harbaugh leaving Michigan for the Los Angeles Chargers and Nick Saban abruptly retiring, has recently led many of the more influential voices in college football to decry the brokenness with the sport. 

No. CFB in its current state will be seeing more and more coaches heading to the NFL. Without boundaries and regulation that make sense coaches that get real opportunities in the NFL will be gone. This trend will continue until there is a new governing body and it creates a CBA… https://t.co/iNuaDU5lp7

— Kirk Herbstreit (@KirkHerbstreit) January 31, 2024

College football is losing its best coaches because there is zero structure. It’s impossible to manage rosters, keep players from bolting, or have any say in who to pay but still have to worry about NCAA?? It’s a joke and if it doesn’t get fixed soon more will make the same jump!

— Danny Kanell (@dannykanell) January 25, 2024

ESPN reported that Hafley “wants to go coach football again in a league that is all about football. College coaching has become fundraising, NIL and recruiting your own team and transfers. There’s no time to coach football anymore.

“A lot of things that he went back to college for have disappeared.”

That might all be true, but what’s also true is Hafley, who was on the hot-seat last season before leading the Eagles to a 7-6 year and a win over SMU in the Fenway Bowl, found a nice way to restart the clock on his career. 

In a vacuum, Hernstreit and Kanell aren’t wrong. College football needs fixing. Coaches want structure and guardrails, and many have crossed the rubicon advocating for a model with player contracts and a new coverning body that oversees a collective-bargining agreement.

“I know that what we’re doing right now can’t stay like this forever,” Nebraska’s Matt Rhule told me. 

“I think it eventually will hit an impasse. Anytime you want to have competitive sports, there has to be some sort of structure.”

However, the notion that many coaches will make “make the same jump” or “this trend will continue” is mostly anecdotal at this point.

Just last year, I looked at idea of college coaches racing to the NFL because of the overbearing recruiting calendar, and the evidence did not show a mass exodus to the league. 

By the end of February 2023, 17 FBS coaches had left for jobs in the NFL. In 2022, that number was 18. 

So far this cycle, I counted six coaches who left (or are rumored to leave) college for the NFL — and one was fired from his college job. Others like Chip Kelly and Alabama OC Ryan Grubb could join the list soon, too.

Jim Harbaugh — Michigan to the Los Angeles Chargers 

Jesse Minter (reportedly) — Michigan to the Los Angeles Chargers

Jay Harbaugh (reportedly) — Michigan to the Los Angeles Chargers

Matt House (fired) — LSU to the Jacksonville Jaguars 

Jeff Hafley — Boston College to the Green Bay Packers

Liam Coen — Kentucky to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

These are some big names, but it’s not a lengthy list. While coaches are frustrated with the sport, the fact is most cannot simply leave for NFL jobs. 

For one, the demand simply isn’t there. There are way fewer jobs in the NFL, and most don’t pay nearly as well. 

The other truth many college coaches don’t want to admit is their greatest value is their ability to recruit. They may hate it, but they’re really good at sending DMs, playing video games with prospects or talking to them on the phone. 

That’s why they’re making $650K at a SEC school coaching linebackers. It’s not because they’re brilliant teachers or tacticians. 

Notably, all six coaches who have taken NFL jobs this offseason all had prior NFL backgrounds. Hafley has had more jobs in the league (with Tampa Bay, Cleveland and San Francisco) than he’s had in college over the last decade of his career. 

Quality Xs and Os coaches could find a home in the league, but that list is much shorter than you think. 

The actual reality is the madness with the calendar and constant demands on coaches won’t drive them to the NFL, but simply out of the business entirely. The sport is racing headfirst toward losing coaches — from head coaches to assistants — to voluntary retirement.

Just look at Dan Mullen, who was fired from Florida and is loving the buyout life of not dealing with the stresses of coaching in college football. Mullen would be in demand as a head coach at a number of P5 and G5 schools, yet he’s chosen to simply walk away. 

Is that really where want the sport to go?

“At the end of the day everybody’s saying the same thing like however this shakes out I’m gonna take my money and I’m out because there is still enough money that you can walk away,” one head coach told me. 

“I can walk away in 3-4 years. And like you want to you want me to walk away? That’s where our profession is at? I feel like I’m one of the good ones in terms of people and you want to run me out? Have at it. I’ll go do TV. And I actually love this. I have a passion for it. But it’s awful.”

College football needs fixing. It needs true leadership and organization, and while the sport isn’t at risk of losing coaches to the NFL, that doesn’t mean coaches fed up with the current model won’t simply walk away from the game entirely.