College Football National Championship Preview: Pressing questions for Michigan-Washington

For just the second time in nearly 20 years, college football’s national champion won’t come from the South. 

Ohio State won the inaugural four-team playoff in 2014, and in the final year of the model before the sport expands its playoff structure to 12 teams, we have undefeated Michigan going up against undefeated Washington down in Houston for all the marbles. 

Big Ten vs. Big Ten Pac 12.

We could see this game the first weekend of December in Indianapolis next season. But before the sport transitions once again next fall, we need to crown a 2023 champion first. 

It’s only fitting that we get a Michigan-Washington title game, as both were not only two of the best teams all season, but also two of the most interesting programs. 

Michigan, ensconced in constant controversy since last January, waltzed to a third-straight Big Ten Championship and then out-muscled Alabama in the Rose Bowl. Washington followed up an 11-2 season in 2022 with a 14-0 run this fall in Kalen DeBoer’s second year.

This is a styles-makes-fights heavyweight clash featuring the nation’s deepest defense versus the Huskies’ orchestra offense led by maestro quarterback Michael Penix Jr. 

Here are a handful of pressing questions I have about the 2023 National Championship Game:

Does Michigan’s recent success against Ohio State spell trouble for Washington’s offense?

Following the disastrous 2020 COVID season, Jim Harbaugh set out to reinvent Michigan’s program with the focus on beating Ohio State and winning the Big Ten. 

Harbaugh was tired of getting torched by Buckeyes offenses featuring an NFL quarterback and a bunch of stud receivers, so he constructed a physical, nasty team that ultimately proved capable of stymieing CJ Stroud and 1st Round wideouts like Chris Olave, Johnny Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr. 

After allowing Ohio State to drop 56 and 62 points in 2018 and 2019, the Wolverines have since rattled off three straight wins over the Buckeyes, holding Ryan Day’s offense to 24, 27 and 23 points the last three seasons. 

Washington’s aerial assault of Michael Penix Jr., Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan will certainly be the best Michigan (which ranked in the Top 10 nationally in pass defense, yards per play, completion percentage and interceptions) has seen all season, but the Wolverines were specifically designed to stop such offenses. 

They’ve bullied Ohio State up front, and they plan to do the same to Washington. They also have a deep, experienced secondary featuring the versatile skill sets of Mike Sainristil, Rob Moore, Will Johnson and others.

The Huskies’ Joe Moore Award-winning OL held up well against Texas, allowing zero sacks or QB hits, but they will be tested by the best front they’ve seen all season — especially along the interior by the likes of Mason Graham, Kris Jenkins and Kenneth Grant.

Penix Jr. may have a quiver full of arrows, but as Stroud and Kyle McCord learned in recent seasons, that won’t matter if Washington’s OL can’t match up against Michigan’s fearsome front. 

Will Washington’s close-game magic continue?

The Huskies are an outlier program — from the coach, to the quarterback, to the rest of the roster — to even make the title game, and the fact they rarely blow teams out is an exclamation point on all that.

Teams that play so many close games rarely see such success, yet it’s in the Huskies’ DNA to only play crazy, tight games. 

Washington has 10 straight wins by 10 points or less this season, a modern-era record, per CBSSports. The Huskies have five straight one-score wins, including thrillers over Oregon State, Wazzu, Oregon and Texas. 

DeBoer’s team has shown an uncanny ability to consistently meet the moment, undaunted by pressure or adversity. The quick-strike touchdown against Oregon. The pick-six late against Arizona State. The late stop against Oregon State. The walk-off field goal against Wazzu. The goal line stand versus Texas. 

Every time Washington — be it Penix, Odunze or the defense — had to make a play this season, it has. Pure probability suggests that “late-game luck” will run out, but it hasn’t yet. So do the Huskies have one more clutch performance in them?

Are the Wolverines able to lean on Blake Corum, thereby controlling the clock and neutralizing Washington’s pass rush?

Michigan has had the same offensive game plan (with some creative wrinkles tossed in here and there) the first 14 weeks of the season, and the Wolverines are not about to deviate from their run-heavy approach against the Huskies. 

Washington ranks 86th nationally in run defense, allowing 4.4 yards per carry. Similarly to Michigan’s pass defense, Washington hasn’t faced a physical run game like the Wolverines (one that involves multiple TEs and a mashing OL) all season. 

Last Monday, Texas found plenty of success on the ground against the Huskies (180 yards at 6.4 per carry and three touchdowns), but Steve Sarkisian never truly leaned on the run game. 

The Wolverines won’t repeat that mistake. 

Blake Corum doesn’t have the same explosiveness he had before tearing his ACL last season, but the senior can still grind out first downs with the best of them. Since he’s not busting off long runs, it’s taking Michigan longer to score, and that might not be a bad thing keeping Washington’s high-powered offense on the sidelines by controlling the clock. 

Corum has also been excellent at turning red zone touches into touchdowns, with a nation’s-best 25 rushing scores this season (and at least one touchdown in all 14 games). Meanwhile, Washington has not been a good red zone defense, allowing opponents to score touchdowns on 70% of their trips inside the 20 (117th nationally). 

If Corum, or perhaps Donovan Edwards has a coming out party in the final game of the season, are able to churn up yards on a consistent basis, then I could totally foresee Sherrone Moore dialing up the Penn State gameplan as a way to neutralize Huskies edge rushers Bralen Trice and Zion Tupuola-Fetui. Against the Nittany Lions, the Wolverines quickly determined they couldn’t block PSU’s edge rushers so they simply stopped throwing the ball. 

Trice wreaked havoc on the Longhorns (two sacks, three tackles for loss, two hurries), so Moore may take the ball out of JJ McCarthy’s hands once again. 

If Washington is up to the challenge of limiting Corum & Co., then suddenly Michigan is in a much more precarious position having to rely on McCarthy’s arm — something that the Wolverines really rarely done for two seasons. 

Potential X-factor Qs?

How healthy is Dillon Johnson? 

The Mississippi State transfer has keyed Washington’s run game the last six weeks of the season, but Johnson re-injured his foot on the final offensive play from scrimmage Monday night. DeBoer noted that it’s something Johnson has battled for a couple of months and the tailback is expected to play versus Michigan. But if Johnson isn’t able to contribute much, that would be a big blow to the Huskies’ ground game (and pass protection), as no other tailback on the roster has more than 45 carries all season. 

Can Michigan avoid a repeat special teams catastrophe?

The Wolverines have been fine on special teams all season, but Jay Harbaugh’s unit delivered a disastrous performance against Alabama that nearly cost the team a spot in the national title game. 

They muffed two punts, botched a PAT, missed a makable field goal and did a poor job punting. 

That can’t happen again on Monday. Not if the Wolverines hope to win their first title since 1997.