The new coaches: Who has the toughest job this fall - and the easiest?

There are 29 new coaches this season, and going by recent history, more than half will be gone in five years. The 131 FBS coaches have been at their current jobs for an average of just 3.7 seasons.

There were 28 new coaches in 2016 and eight remain in those jobs. In 2017, there were 23 new guys and eight remain. There were 21 new coaches in 2018 and 13 already have departed for assorted reasons. And there were 22 changes in 2019 – and eight already are gone three years later.

An important part of a coach’s potential success is the shape of the program when he takes over. And, man, those vary wildly this season. In short, pity poor Jerry Kill and raise a glass to Brent Venables.

Here are our rankings of how tough each new guy has it this fall. This is not meant as a predictor of eventual success or the relative merits of a job or a comparison of jobs.

1. New Mexico State

Former coach: Doug Martin
The new guy: Jerry Kill
The skinny: Kill has been successful at his previous stops, but NMSU might be the worst program in the FBS ranks. The Aggies have had two winning seasons this century and only five since 1970. NMSU hasn’t won more than seven games in a season since 1965 and has won eight games total in the past four seasons. The school has been playing football since 1931 and only three times have the Aggies won more than seven games and only once won more than eight. It should be more of the same this season. There simply isn’t much talent on the roster, plus the Aggies lost some of their best players to the transfer portal.

2. UMass

Former coach: Walt Bell
The new guy: Don Brown
The skinny: Brown has won at UMass before, including a title-game appearance in 2006 as an FCS program. But a lot has changed since then. UMass moved to the FBS ranks in 2012, and have won 20 games. That’s 20 wins in 10 seasons, including just two in the past three seasons. Teams rarely move from FBS to FCS, but that should be a consideration for UMass. This is going to be a long first season in Brown’s return to the school.

3. UConn

Former coach: Randy Edsall
The new guy: Jim Mora
The skinny: Edsall was successful in his first go-round with the Huskies, including a Fiesta Bowl berth as the Big East champs in 2010. But that’s the last time UConn had a winning record. The Huskies have won four games in the past four years (well, they opted out of playing in 2020, but still …). That UConn was able to convince a former NFL coach to give it a try is noteworthy, but, man, Mora has a ton of work to do. The offense has miles to go before it can be considered even “competent.”

4. Akron

Former coach: Tom Arth
The new guy: Joe Moorhead
The skinny: Arth won three games in three seasons, then was jettisoned. Before he took over, though, the Zips had been to two bowls in four seasons under Terry Bowden, so you can win at Akron. Moorhead’s hiring was a coup of sorts, and it’ll be interesting to see if he can get the Zips back on the beam. It doesn’t figure to be right away, though.

5. Duke

Former coach: David Cutcliffe
The new guy: Mike Elko
The skinny: Duke has been to 14 bowls in program history, with six of them between 1938-60. Cutcliffe took the Blue Devils to six bowls in his 14 seasons and made them relevant at least inside the ACC. Alas, they won one league game in the past two seasons and Elko has a rebuilding job ahead of him. As a former ACC assistant, he does know the lay of the land. But this is a mighty difficult job. The defense was rancid last season; any improvement must start on that side of the ball. Duke is in the Coastal, which is the weakest of the ACC’s two divisions, but the Blue Devils look like the worst team in the division.

6. FIU

Former coach: Butch Davis
The new guy: Mike MacIntyre
The skinny: Davis took FIU to bowls each season from 2017-19, then the bottom fell out. FIU has won one game total the past two seasons. But the recruiting base and the conference (Conference USA) means FIU can rebound quick, though this season figures to be another bad one. Then again, C-USA isn’t that strong, so …

7. Temple

Former coach: Rod Carey
The new guy: Stan Drayton
The skinny: Carey lasted just three seasons. He took over at the end of a stretch in which the Owls went to four consecutive bowls. Since Temple had been to just eight bowls total at the time, the program was in a good spot. Carey then guided the Owls to a bowl in his first season, but won just four games in the past two and was fired. The four coaches before Carey (in order, Al Golden, Steve Addazio, Matt Rhule and Geoff Collins) parlayed success at Temple into a better job. Can Drayton do the same? A good beginning to his tenure at Temple this season would be sprucing up what was an awful offense.

8. Hawaii

Former coach: Todd Graham
The new guy: Timmy Chang
The skinny: Chang, a Hawaii native, is one of the most popular players in school history. But he takes over after a nasty – and very public – divorce from Graham. (Hey, when the state legislature holds hearings about your football team … well, that’s not good.) The program is not in a good place right now because of a talent drain and the lack of a home stadium (Hawaii is playing at a small, on-campus facility originally built for track and soccer). But Chang seems to have the right personality to start the rebuild. This season will be difficult, though.

9. Colorado State

Former coach: Steve Addazio
The new guy: Jay Norvell
The skinny: Norvell took Nevada to four bowls in a row, then decided to look for another challenge. Oddly enough, it came in the same league. He is leaving one of the steadiest programs in the Mountain West (Nevada has been to 14 bowls in the past 17 seasons) to take over at perhaps the league’s biggest underachiever. Colorado State has been to five bowls in 13 years and none since 2017; the Rams have won just 11 games in the past four seasons, and the talent level isn’t where it should be. Norvell knows his offense works in the Mountain West; he just needs to find a quarterback. Colorado State was one of the best programs in the WAC in the late 1990s, and there’s no reason it can’t have the same status in the Mountain West. But given the current state of the roster, it’s not going to happen overnight.

10. Georgia Southern

Former coach: Chad Lunsford
The new guy: Clay Helton
The skinny: Georgia Southern has a proud tradition and has enjoyed some success since moving to the FBS ranks in 2014. But there is no stability: Helton is the fourth coach in nine seasons. It’s also fair to ask this: If Helton couldn’t win at USC, what makes folks think he can win here? Helton is revamping the offense, but how much can a passing attack improve in one year? Growing pains this season seem inevitable. Still, while Georgia Southern won just three games last season, it won 25 in the previous three. There is some talent on hand.

11. Texas Tech

Former coach: Matt Wells
The new guy: Joey McGuire
The skinny: McGuire is a former longtime Texas high school coach, and that will pay off – to an extent – on the recruiting trail. Still, Tech is never going to have the same amount of talent as most of its Big 12 brethren, even when Oklahoma and Texas leave. The Red Raiders have had just two winning records in the past eight seasons and haven’t had a winning conference record since 2009 – Mike Leach’s final season in Lubbock. There won’t be a winning conference record this season, either. Above all, the Red Raiders need to find a consistent quarterback.

12. Nevada

Former coach: Jay Norvell
The new guy: Ken Wilson
The skinny: We mentioned earlier than Nevada has been to 14 bowls in the past 17 seasons and is coming off a Mountain Division title in the Mountain West. But the offense was gutted by graduations and transfers, and the defense wasn’t that good anyway. Wilson, a former Nevada assistant, is a defensive coach and figures to help that side of the ball improve schematically. But given the offensive talent drain, this season could be a tough one even though this is one of the steadiest programs in the Mountain West.

13. Louisiana Tech

Former coach: Skip Holtz
The new guy: Sonny Cumbie
The skinny: Holtz took the Bulldogs to seven bowls in a row (with wins in six of them), then suffered through a 3-9 mark last season and was fired. Still, Tech has had a winning record in Conference USA play in eight of the past 11 seasons (and also went .500 one year), so this program is used to success. It’s not that difficult a task to get the Bulldogs back on the right side of the ledger this season. Holtz oversaw some good offenses, and Cumbie should be able to do the same.

14. Troy

Former coach: Chip Lindsey
The new guy: Jon Sumrall
The skinny: The Trojans won 31 games from 2016-18, then just 15 total the past three seasons. The infrastructure is there; the concern is a lack of talent. The program can be an annual contender in the Sun Belt, even with the league improving on a seemingly annual basis. But the talent level this season is such that Sumrall’s team could struggle to get to .500 because of a questionable offense. Still, there’s reason to expect Troy to show some improvement this fall.

15. Virginia Tech

Former coach: Justin Fuente
The new guy: Brent Pry
The skinny: Fuente was seen as a good hire, but Tech’s offense – his specialty – grew stale over time. The Hokies won at least 10 games each season from 2004-11, but have won 10 games just once since; in addition, they’ve finished with losing records in three of the past four seasons, the first time that has happened since 1976-79. This season’s team figures to struggle offensively. But the program can be a big winner and an annual ACC contender, though recruiting better in the Tidewater region is an absolute must for that to happen. Heck, in-state recruiting overall has to get a lot better. Can Pry and his staff get it done?

16. TCU

Former coach: Gary Patterson
The new guy: Sonny Dykes
The skinny: After winning at least 11 games in 2014, ’15 and ’17, the Horned Frogs have scuffled the past four seasons, winning 23 games total. There’s no question the program has leveled off. The question: How soon can it rise again? Dykes figures to spruce up the offense, but the talent level on defense has dropped markedly the past few seasons. Dykes’ first season figures to be around .500, but TCU has the ability to become one of the Big 12’s standard-bearers when Oklahoma and Texas leave for the SEC.

17. Virginia

Former coach: Bronco Mendenhall
The new guy: Tony Elliott
The skinny: Mendenhall’s was a surprise hire when it was made, but he did a respectable job in his six seasons. And he has left Elliott with QB Brennan Armstrong, the nation’s leading returning passer (4,449 yards), and some good receivers. The defense needs work and the overall talent level needs to be improved, but Mendenhall is leaving the program in much better shape than it was when he took over. The Cavs have a bowl-worthy roster this season. It’s nice when a first-time head coach like Elliott doesn’t face a major rebuild.

18. Washington

Former coach: Jimmy Lake
The new guy: Kalen DeBoer
The skinny: Things turned sour quickly under Lake, who lasted just two seasons. He was promoted when Chris Petersen retired, and it was supposed to be a smooth transition. Instead, it was a disaster. A positive for DeBoer is that there is talent on the roster, and with the right staff, the supposition is the Huskies can get back on track rather quickly. The offense was nightmarishly bad the past two seasons, and DeBoer should help in that regard. It helps Washington’s cause that there is no powerhouse in the Pac-12 right now.

19. Florida

Former coach: Dan Mullen
The new guy: Billy Napier
The skinny: Napier has updated the recruiting infrastructure, and the administration is spending like never before on football. If Napier and his staff follow through, Florida will be in good shape in a short time. But right now, the talent level isn’t near what it should be in a state that produces numerous elite and near-elite recruits annually. This program certainly has the potential to annually contend for the SEC – and, thus, national – title. As for this season? Finishing second in the SEC East would mean a successful campaign; the offensive backfield should be productive behind a good line, while the wide receivers and the defensive line are the biggest issues. An aside: Steve Spurrier stepped down after the 2001 season, and Napier is the sixth coach since then; two (Mullen and Jim McElwain) won 10 games in their first season, and two others (Urban Meyer and Will Muschamp) won at least 11 in their second.

20. LSU

Former coach: Ed Orgeron
The new guy: Brian Kelly
The skinny: LSU, of course, won it all behind a historically prolific offense in 2019, then fell off the map the past two seasons because of uneven quarterback play and bad defense. Still, this is LSU, so there is talent on hand. Kelly did yeoman work at Notre Dame despite legit recruiting restrictions; he won’t face the same type of restrictions at LSU. In short, he will sign talent. Developing it is the key. This season, if he can coax consistent play out of the quarterbacks and the defense gets tougher against the run, a third-place finish in the SEC West is a distinct possibility. As for the future? Consider this: Orgeron and Les Miles won national titles at LSU – and Kelly is a better coach than either of them. Again, the talent will be there. Will it be developed?

21. Miami

Former coach: Manny Diaz
The new guy: Mario Cristobal
The skinny: Miami won the 2001 national title, played for the title in ’02 and went to the Orange Bowl in ’03. But that ’03 season was the last time the Hurricanes finished in the top 10, which means that current high school recruits have zero first-hand knowledge of how dominant UM used to be. Cristobal is taking over an OK program, but one a long way from being elite. Consider: The Hurricanes have been in the ACC for 18 seasons but have played in the league championship game just once (a 35-point loss to Clemson in 2017). Cristobal’s recruiting acumen will mean a quick talent infusion; the key then becomes developing that talent and challenging for ACC titles – which shouldn’t be as difficult as it has been for the Hurricanes. This season, Cristobal has a developing star at quarterback in Tyler Van Dyke and a nice group of running backs. But the line play needs to improve on both sides of the ball.

22. Louisiana

Former coach: Billy Napier
The new guy: Michael Desormeaux
The skinny: Desormeaux, a former Ragin’ Cajuns quarterback, was promoted from offensive coordinator to take over after Napier’s departure. While Louisiana lost a lot of talent, it has won 34 games in the past three seasons and a great foundation is in place, Because of the talent drain, a small step back this season is to be expected. But Louisiana is one of the best programs in the Sun Belt (which is a good league and getting better) and things are in place for Desormeaux to have success this fall and beyond.

23. Washington State

Former coach: Nick Rolovich
The new guy: Jake Dickert
The skinny: Dickert was 3-3 as the interim coach last season and showed enough to get the job permanently. Long-term success is a question – Washington State never has had sustained success, with three consecutive 10-win seasons from 2001-03 the program’s high-water mark – but the Cougars have legit reasons to think they can contend for second in the Pac-12 North this season. There should be a high-powered pass offense, thanks to the hiring of Eric Morris as coordinator and the addition of transfer QB Cameron Ward, and the defense has some nice pieces. Plus, Dickert is well-acquainted with the roster. Last season was the fifth time in seven years that the Cougars won at least six conference games, and the program looks to be on relatively sound footing.

24. USC

Former coach: Clay Helton
The new guy: Lincoln Riley
The skinny: Riley is walking into a potentially great situation. Yes, the Trojans have underachieved big-time the past few seasons, and the current roster is lacking up front on both sides, doesn’t have a dominant linebacker and has depth concerns in the secondary. But there is tradition, money, an eminently winnable conference, an appealing NIL location and – most important – a tremendous recruiting base, which means it shouldn’t take long for Riley to have the Trojans back in the top 10 annually. USC should be the dominant program in the Pac-12, and the Trojans have the potential to be dominant again in short order – like in 2023. Some of the jobs on this list are akin to a total reconstruction of a house; USC’s “rebuild” is like putting in a new kitchen – a pain for a while, but you get exactly what you want.

25. SMU

Former coach: Sonny Dykes
The new guy: Rhett Lashlee
The skinny: There’s a rebuilt foundation – SMU has had three consecutive winning seasons for the first time since 1982-84 – and a good roster for Lashlee, a former SMU assistant. The Mustangs should be an AAC contender this fall. And this program is in position to be an annual contender, thanks to a great recruiting base and deep-pocketed boosters. Now it’s up to Lashlee and his staff.

26. Oregon

Former coach: Mario Cristobal
The new guy: Dan Lanning
The skinny: Oregon has become the best program in the Pac-12, taking advantage of the downturn at USC. Lanning certainly will have the same recruiting zeal as Cristobal, if not more. The question: With Lincoln Riley in place at USC, will the Ducks have the same recruiting success in southern California as they did when Clay Helton was Trojans coach? Regardless, Lanning is taking over a good program, one with a solid foundation and the best roster in the league this season. Anything less than a Pac-12 North title means this season will have been a disappointment.

27. Notre Dame

Former coach: Brian Kelly
The new guy: Marcus Freeman
The skinny: Freeman was promoted from defensive coordinator when Kelly left for LSU, which made the players happy. The Irish have had a school-record five consecutive seasons with double-digit wins, and Freeman takes over a good roster that is used to winning. Being a first-time head coach is tough; being a first-time head coach at Notre Dame is off-the-charts tough. Still, for this season, which is what this exercise is all about, things are looking good for the Irish.

28. Fresno State

Former coach: Kalen DeBoer
The new guy: Jeff Tedford
The skinny: Tedford won 26 games as Bulldogs coach from 2017-19, then stepped down for health reasons. Now he’s back and taking over one of the best programs in the Mountain West. Plus, he has one of the best quarterbacks on the West Coast in Jake Haener and solid complementary talent, meaning Fresno State should be one of the top two teams in the conference this season. In addition, Fresno State has the foundation to annually be one of the league’s best teams. In short, Tedford is a good coach in a good situation at a program built for continued success.

29. Oklahoma

Former coach: Lincoln Riley
The new guy: Brent Venables
The skinny: Venables had the luxury of being able to be extremely picky when it came to his first head-coaching job, and he chose wisely. OU has had 23 consecutive winning seasons (second-longest current streak to Boise State’s 24) and is the premier program in the Big 12. Yes, OU is moving to the SEC soon, but there’s no reason to expect any kind of big drop-off. Venables takes over a team with the best roster, top to bottom, in the Big 12, and double-digit wins in his first season should be expected.