College Football Playoff Bubble Watch after week 1: Who is in and who is out?
Predicting who is going to make the College Football Playoff is so much harder than it was a year ago. It’s even harder when all you have to go on is one week’s worth of games.
But that isn’t going to stop us.
Every week at the conclusion of the games, I’ll be channeling my inner college basketball writer and bringing you a Bubble Watch. This list, of course, is subject to change dramatically from week to week as we have more data to work with.
Let’s start by giving it our best shot after week 1:
Last Four In
Oregon: Oregon may very well be the Big Ten Champion when this season ends and we’ll probably get our answer to how it plays out when the Ducks host Ohio State on Oct. 12. Oregon, though, didn’t get off to the best start over the weekend, playing a four-quarter game with FCS Idaho.
Alabama: The Crimson Tide don’t have Nick Saban anymore, but they do have one of the best offensive minds in football leading the way now. Kalen DeBoer will help Jalen Milroe take the next step and Alabama will still scare every opponent it plays this year.
Ole Miss: The Rebels brought back a ton from a 10-win team a year ago and improved greatly in the portal during the offseason. They also don’t have to play Alabama or Texas in the regular season. Ole Miss does have a very manageable schedule and should be able to break into the College Football Playoff, even if it loses to the Bulldogs and Oklahoma.
Penn State: There is a lot to like about the Nittany Lions after what we saw out of the new-look offense, led by first-year coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. There is no team in the country that benefits more from the 12-team College Football Playoff field than Penn State, so even if this seemingly vastly improved team loses twice, it should still back into the field.
First Four Out
USC: I didn’t even include the Trojans in my post-spring Top 25 because it was hard to believe they could fix that defense. Well, after watching the LSU win, I view USC differently. Miller Moss is good, he has a ton of elite options at the skill positions and the defense should be good enough to have USC contending for a CFP spot.
Missouri: The Tigers very well could make the College Football Playoff this year because they have a very good team and a more-than-manageable schedule. Missouri will be made or broken during its four-game stretch in late October/Early November when it faces Auburn, Alabama, Oklahoma and South Carolina.
Kansas State: This basically counts for an unofficial prediction that Utah will win the Big 12, but Kansas State is going to be a tough out all season. It has one of the most exciting young players in the sport in Avery Johnson and it wouldn’t surprise me if you swapped the Wildcats for Utah in this spot.
Clemson: While it’s easy to roast the Tigers after getting blown out by Georgia, that doesn’t mean Clemson isn’t still going to make it to 10 wins. Florida State — which was perceived to be Clemson’s toughest conference game — just got a lot easier.
Next Four Out
Arizona: If I had to guess who is going to win the Big 12 right now, it would probably be Utah or Kansas State. But if anyone is certain about this conference’s winner, they are a liar. I love the Noah Fifita to Tetairoa McMillan connection and I think Arizona is still built to compete quite well in this conference.
Oklahoma: The game of the week four is shaping up to be Tennessee-Oklahoma, with two former five-star quarterbacks leading the way. I’m more than willing to admit the possibility that Oklahoma is further along than we think, but the SEC did it no favors with a schedule that features the Volunteers, Auburn, Texas, Ole Miss, Mizzou, Alabama and LSU. Even if Oklahoma is really good, it’s hard to imagine them not dropping three games this year.
Louisville: The ACC is completely blown apart in the College Football Playoff picture already. Clemson and Florida State have already lost. Tyler Shough passed for four touchdowns in a 62-0 win over Austin Peay in the season-opener, but Louisville’s schedule features Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Miami, Clemson and, of course, Kentucky. There are a lot of land mines.
Iowa: The Hawkeyes have a tough rivalry game against Iowa State this coming weekend, but in this new-build Big Ten, they still have a reasonable route to 10 wins. If the offense is actually improved and the defense is still nasty, I could see a world where Iowa beats Washington, Wisconsin, UCLA and Nebraska. But it won’t be easy.
Group of 5 Watch
Boise State: The entire college football world now knows who Ashton Jeanty is after he rushed for 267 yards and six touchdowns in a win over Georgia Southern on Saturday. Boise State has a tough game at Oregon on Saturday — one we may be talking about at the end of the year — but the Broncos seem to be one of the G5 teams with an inside track.
UNLV: The Rebels got their season off to a fast start Saturday with a win over a Power 4 team, beating Houston 27-7 on the road. It still has two other games against power opponents (not including Oregon State) and it still has to face Boise. UNLV definitely has its work cut out for it.
Memphis: Being the highest-ranked Group of 5 team is going to be an interesting conversation to watch unfold. That means limiting losses and trying to put a feather in your cap with a win over a power opponent. Memphis has Florida State on its schedule — a game it absolutely can win — and
Liberty: You may not like having Liberty on the list because its schedule is a breeze, but they have Kaidon Salter back at quarterback. He accounted for 43 touchdowns a year ago while rushing for more than 1,000 yards. Liberty may not be the highest-ranked Group of 5 team at the end of the year, but there will be some interesting discussions if the Flames are unbeaten.
The Projected Bracket
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oregon
Winner faces No. 1 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl
No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Notre Dame
Winner faces No. 4 Utah in the Fiesta Bowl
No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl
No. 11 Penn State at No. 6 Texas
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl