College Football Playoff Bubble Watch after Week 10: Who is in, who is out?

Predicting who will make the College Football Playoff is so much harder than it was a year ago. But now that we’re in the thick of conference championship races, it’s getting easier to see the picture coming together. Well, everywhere but the SEC. Nobody knows what’s going on in that conference.

Every week after the slate, I’ll channel my inner college basketball writer and bring you a Bubble Watch. Of course, this list is subject to change dramatically from week to week as we gain more data.

Last Four In

Alabama: The Crimson Tide are back firmly in the picture after going on the road and destroying LSU on Saturday night. Quarterback Jalen Milroe rushed for 185 yards and four touchdowns in knocking the Tigers out of the Playoff picture. Alabama plays Mercer, Oklahoma, and Auburn to close out the regular season. It still has to get through Auburn, but it seems reasonable to expect Alabama to finish the season 10-2 with a good enough resume to crack the field.

Penn State: Penn State responded to a close loss to Ohio State at home by blowing out Washington in the annual White Out game. The Nittany Lions lack explosiveness on offense, which could hurt them against elite-level teams in future matchups. But there’s no way Penn State isn’t making the field of 12 if it finishes 11-1 and its only blemish being a close loss to the Buckeyes.

Notre Dame: Notre Dame blew out Florida State on Saturday. Though people still can’t get the loss to Northern Illinois out of their heads, the Irish have now won seven games in a row, most of which have come in blowout fashion. If Notre Dame finishes the season 11-1, it’s in.

Indiana: Indiana has to feel a little uncomfortable with how many SEC teams have a chance to finish 6-2 in conference play. If the Hoosiers lose to Ohio State and finish 11-1, they may be in head-to-head debates with two-loss SEC teams with impressive wins on their resumes. That’s a scary proposition for an Indiana team that has already been disrespected by the CFP Committee for how weak its schedule has been. For now, Indiana is in. However, there is no guarantee the Hoosiers get in at 11-1, so playing a good game against Ohio State is crucial.

First Four Out

Georgia: Georgia has looked incredible at times this year, which makes its placement incredibly difficult. But in its loss at Ole Miss on Saturday, the Bulldogs were out-played in every facet of the game. It plays Tennessee next weekend, and the Volunteers are built to give Georgia similar issues as the Rebels. Georgia’s lack of offensive skill position players and its leaky secondary make it hard to give it the benefit of the doubt. If Georgia beats up on Tennessee next weekend, we’ll revisit it.

BYU: The Cougars are still riding high after the dramatic win over Utah in the Holy War, but is it the best team in the Big 12? If you haven’t been paying attention to Colorado lately, the Buffaloes are playing their best football and now control their destiny in the Big 12 race. If Colorado faces BYU and wins in the Big 12 title game, the Buffs are in and the Cougars are out.

SMU: Like the Big 12, the ACC is a one-bid lead. SMU, in its first year in the ACC, controls its destiny to go to the conference title game in its first year in the league. But as fun as the Mustangs’ run has been, it has to win the conference to get into the Playoffs. As things stand currently, things still seem on track for SMU to play Miami. I’m not ready to pick against the Hurricanes in that matchup yet, even after they lost to Georgia Tech on Saturday.

Texas A&M: Only three teams are remaining in the SEC who have one loss in conference play. Texas A&M is one of them. The Aggies get to play one of the other when it hosts Texas in an intense rivalry at the end of the season. Unfortunately for Texas A&M, who lost breathing room in a blowout loss to South Carolina last weekend, it now has to beat the Longhorns to keep its Playoff dreams alive. That’s a tough ask, though it’s certainly possible. 

Next Four Out

Clemson: Pitt losing to Virginia opens the ACC race up a little. But Clemson doesn’t control its destiny in the conference, as Miami would own the tiebreaker. Clemson could finish the season 10-2, beat a surging South Carolina team, not play in the ACC Championship Game, and find itself on the cusp of the Playoff. However, there are too many teams in contention from the SEC for Clemson to make the CFP without winning the ACC, so the Tigers need help.

Missouri: Missouri scored 14 points in 33 seconds to beat Oklahoma in dramatic fashion on Saturday night. Though this has been a disappointing season for the Tigers, they still have only lost twice in SEC play. They are in that cluster of teams in that conference trying to rise to the top. Mizzou finishes with South Carolina, Mississippi State and Arkansas. There’s a path to 10-2.

Kansas State: The last time the Wildcats played, it lost to Houston. That threw a wrench in Kansas State‘s Big 12 odds, but that conference is crazy. Iowa State lost on Saturday. So did Texas Tech. So here Kansas State is, behind Colorado and BYU in the Big 12 standings. It needs some help, but if it wins its remaining three games against Arizona State, Cincinnati and Iowa State, it could backdoor its way to Dallas.

Washington State: Washington State isn’t in a recognizable conference, so its only chance of making the Playoff would be as an at-large selection. The Cougars would have probably had to go undefeated to have a shot at that. They didn’t, but they still have a realistic shot to go 11-1 this season. If Washington State pulls that off, it’ll likely finish the regular season in the top 20 in the committee’s rankings.

Group Of Five Watch

Boise State: Boise State has been running through its schedule handling teams, but it found itself in a close game against Nevada on Saturday evening. Backed by running back Ashton Jeanty — who rushed 34 times for 209 yards and three touchdowns — Boise State got the 28-21 win. Boise State controls its destiny to be the highest-rated Group of 5 champ. 

UNLV: UNLV has two losses this season. One to Syracuse and one to Boise State. Only one of those was in Mountain West play. If UNLV keeps winning, it will likely go to Boise for the conference title game and get a second crack at the Broncos. If The Rebels win that game? It realistically could find its way into the CFP. 

Army: Army got quarterback Bryson Daily back and he rushed 36 times for 153 yards and two touchdowns against North Texas. Army won, 14-3, to improve to 9-0. Army has Notre Dame in a few weeks. If the Black Knights win that one, things get interesting for the Group of 5 in the Playoff race. 

Tulane: Tulane lost to Kansas State and Oklahoma in the nonconference and disappeared into obscurity. But while in the darkness, the Green Wave has won seven in a row, including its first six in American Athletic Conference play. Tulane plays Navy in the regular season and could find itself matched up with Army in the AAC title game. If Tulane wins the American, it has a shot. It needs help, but it has a shot. 

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Alabama
Winner faces No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl 

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State
Winner faces No. 4 Colorado in the Fiesta Bowl 

No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Ole Miss
Winner faces No. 2 Texas in the Sugar Bowl 

No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl