College Football Playoff Bubble Watch after Week 10: Who is in, who is out?

Predicting who will make the College Football Playoff is so much harder than it was a year ago. But now that we’re in the thick of conference championship races, it’s getting easier to see the picture coming together.

Every week after the slate, I’ll channel my inner college basketball writer and bring you a Bubble Watch. Of course, this list is subject to change dramatically from week to week as we gain more data.

Last Four In

Notre Dame: Notre Dame‘s two best wins took hits Saturday. Both Texas A&M and Navy lost. But as long as the Irish, who have now won six straight games, keep winning, that’s not going to matter. People were shocked Notre Dame stayed in or around these projections even after losing to Northern Illinois, but the path to 11 wins was always there. It gets more and more likely with each passing week.

Alabama: After the Crimson Tide lost to Tennessee, many thought that would be the last we’d see of Alabama for a while. But there is a clear pathway into the field for Alabama. If it beats LSU on the way to winning its last four games, Alabama will be a 10-2 team with wins over Georgia and the Tigers. That’s getting into the Playoff.

Indiana: Could Indiana be good enough to beat Ohio State this year? It’s becoming more and more of a serious question as Indiana continues to not only win but blow out every opponent on its schedule. Even if the Hoosiers lose to Ohio State, they have a real shot at finishing 11-1. Indiana won’t have a marquee win, which could hurt its seeding. But the Hoosiers should still get in.

Tennessee: Tennessee has all the pieces to be an elite-level team, but the Volunteers just haven’t put it all together yet. Tennessee, though, has the ace in the hole with its win over Alabama, a victory you know the committee is going to love. Even if Tennessee loses on the road to Georgia in mid-November, a 10-2 SEC team with a win over the Crimson Tide is going to find its way in.

First Four Out

SMU: The Mustangs invited undefeated Pittsburgh into its stadium Saturday for a pivotal ACC game. SMU blew out the Panthers, 48-25. The game wasn’t as close as the score indicated. The Mustangs, who have yet to lose a conference game, now have a clear path to the ACC title game in its first year in the conference. If it loses to Miami (or whoever it plays), it will be on the edge of the bubble. The Mustangs, theoretically, could be as high as the No. 3 seed come December if it wins the ACC.

Ole Miss: The Rebels went an entire month without scoring more than 27 points, which is not what you’d expect from a Lane Kiffin-coached team with this much talent. But Saturday, Ole Miss dropped 63 on Arkansas in a statement win. With only two losses, Ole Miss hosts Georgia on Saturday in what has turned out to be a season-defining opportunity. Was the offseason NIL investment worth it? We’ll see.

Texas A&M: The Aggies were riding high coming into the week dreaming of SEC titles and high seeds in the College Football Playoff. South Carolina brought them back down to earth in a 44-20 blowout. But Texas A&M still only has one loss in SEC play and its next two games are against New Mexico State and Auburn. If the Aggies win both of those games, it will be hosting Texas for a spot in the SEC title game and Playoff. Texas A&M is sad right now. But it’s not dead.

Colorado: After Colorado was blown out by Nebraska, the Buffaloes flew under the radar. It’s crazy to think that’s even possible with Deion Sanders as a head coach, but it’s true. Since leaving the spotlight, Colorado has won five of its last six games. And the game it did lose — a heartbreaker to Kansas State — Travis Hunter left prematurely with an injury. The only way Colorado is getting into the Playoff is if it wins the Big 12. It’s in a second-place tie with Iowa State at the moment and a relatively easy schedule remaining. Watch out for the Buffaloes.

Next Four Out

Clemson: Clemson‘s blowout loss to Louisville on Saturday feels like it all but eliminated the Tigers from the Playoff picture. But remember, Clemson has lost only once in ACC play and it could still backdoor its way into the ACC Championship Game. It needs help, but it’s not impossible. This still very well may be a 10-win team, though a game against South Carolina is looking tougher now than it did Saturday morning.

LSU: LSU is hosting Alabama on Nov. 9 in what will be an elimination game for both the Crimson Tide and the Tigers. If LSU wins, it could find itself back into striking distance to making the Playoff. If LSU loses, that would put it on track to likely finishing 9-3 and finishing somewhere in the low teens in the committee’s rankings.

Iowa State: It looked like the Cyclones were going to pull off another thrilling victory against Texas Tech on Saturday when it took a five-point lead with a little more than two minutes left in the game. Texas Tech had other plans, completing a last-minute drive that handed Iowa State its first loss. Iowa State still only has one loss in Big 12 play and contending for a spot in the conference championship. The Cyclones’ best shot at cracking the field is winning its conference, which is still on the table.

Washington State: Washington State isn’t in a recognizable conference, so its only chance of making the Playoff would be as an at-large selection. The Cougars would have probably had to go undefeated to have a shot at that. They didn’t, but they still have a realistic shot to go 11-1 this season. If Washington State pulls that off, it’ll likely finish the regular season in the top 20 in the committee’s rankings.

Group Of Five Watch

Boise State: Boise State continued its run through the Mountain West on Friday night with a 56-24 win over San Diego State. The Broncos have one of the best players in the country in Ashton Jeanty, who helped them play Oregon to the last second earlier in the season. Boise State still has to take care of business, but it is the unquestionable favorite to represent the Group of 5 in the Playoff this year.

UNLV: The Rebels, who were on a bye week Saturday, have two losses. That’s usually been a recipe for disaster for a G5 team. But UNLV is a really good football team and it can play its way into a rematch with Boise State in the Mountain West title game. If UNLV were to win that game — which would be played in Boise — it would have a real chance to be the highest-ranked G5 conference champion. 

Army: Army faced Air Force without start quarterback Bryson Daily, who was out with an undisclosed injury. Though the Black Knights weren’t as explosive as they’ve been all season, they still won the game, 20-3. Running back Kanye Udoh rushed for 158 yards and two touchdowns to help Army improve to 8-0 for the first time since 1996. Army faces Notre Dame on Nov. 23 to see if it can fare better against the Irish than Navy. 

Tulane: Tulane lost to Kansas State and Oklahoma in the nonconference and disappeared into obscurity. But while in the darkness, the Green Wave has won six in a row, including its first five in American Athletic Conference play. Tulane plays Navy in the regular season and could find itself matched up with Army in the AAC title game, but if it wins the American, it has a shot. It needs help, but it has a shot. 

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Notre Dame
Winner faces No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl 

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State
Winner faces No. 4 BYU in the Fiesta Bowl 

No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Penn State
Winner faces No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl 

No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Texas
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl