College Football Playoff Bubble Watch after Week 12: Who is in, who is out?

Predicting who will make the College Football Playoff is so much harder than it was a year ago. But now that we’re in the thick of conference championship races, it’s getting easier to see the picture coming together. Well, everywhere but the SEC. Nobody knows what’s going on in that conference.

Every week after the slate, I’ll channel my inner college basketball writer and bring you a Bubble Watch. Of course, this list is subject to change dramatically from week to week as we gain more data.

Last Four In

Ole Miss: The Rebels’ win over Georgia last weekend got a lot sexier Saturday. Ole Miss has had some low moments this year, but it is playing well and it has one of the most valuable resume bullet points possible. Ole Miss still has to take care of business against Florida and Mississippi State, but if it finishes 10-2, that resume will have the Rebels in the field.

Georgia: Georgia was out of the field last weekend. The Bulldogs are back in. They are a pretty confusing team when you look at the entire picture, but you could make the case they have the two most impressive wins in college football. Georgia may not play in the SEC title game, but there’s no shot a 10-2 team with wins over Texas and Tennessee is left out.

Notre Dame: With a win over Virginia on Saturday, Notre Dame picked up its eighth-consecutive win since the shocking upset loss to Northern Illinois. Notre Dame‘s next two games are against a ranked Army team and a road trip to USC, so there’s an opportunity for weirdness. But the odds say Notre Dame will finish 11-1 and in the Playoff field.

Indiana: If Indiana goes to Ohio State and loses a respectable game next week, the Hoosiers should probably still feel pretty good about their odds of getting into the CFP. That said, Indiana going to have to sweat. It’s going to find itself in head-to-head discussions with SEC teams like Tennessee, who would have one more loss but an Alabama win on their resume. That’s going to be intense.

First Four Out

Tennessee: Tennessee’s loss to Georgia hurts because it puts the Volunteers squarely on the bubble. If Tennessee finishes 10-2 this year, it could find itself in some uncomfortable debates. The good news for Tennessee? It has a win over Alabama on its resume. That could turn out to be the trump card in whatever hypothetical debate it finds itself in. The Volunteers need to hope for some more SEC chaos. Is it possible for five SEC teams to make the field? Sure. There’s still hope.

SMU: Like the Big 12, the ACC is a one-bid lead. SMU, in its first year in the ACC, controls its destiny to go to the conference title game in its first year in the league. SMU doesn’t have to worry about rankings, even after playing in a closer-than-expected game with Boston College on Saturday. The reality is SMU’s only path to the CFP is winning the ACC. As things stand currently, things still seem on track for SMU to play Miami. I’m not ready to pick against the Hurricanes in that matchup yet, even after they lost to Georgia Tech last weekend.

Texas A&M: Only two teams are remaining in the SEC who have one loss in conference play. Texas A&M is one of them. Texas is the other. We didn’t learn much about Texas A&M this week because it beat New Mexico State. The bad news? Texas A&M lost any breathing room as an at-large candidate when it was blown out by South Carolina. The good news? The Aggies control their Playoff destiny.

BYU: BYU’s run as an unbeaten team came to an end with a home loss to Kansas in Provo on Saturday night. The reality is nothing has changed for the Cougars. If they win the Big 12, they’re in. If they lose to Arizona State next weekend (a real possibility) or in the conference title game, they’re out.

Next Four Out

South Carolina: Is there anyone in college football who has played better than South Carolina this past month? If there is, the list is small. The Gamecocks won a thrilling game against Mizzou on Saturday and you could make the case they’re the best three-loss team in college football. It’s tough that South Carolina would be in the thick of the CFP discourse had it held on against either LSU or Alabama.

Arizona State: The world knew Arizona State was a much-improved team. The Sun Devils, though, proved in a convincing win at Kansas State on Saturday that they are capable of making a push in the Big 12. Arizona State is hosting BYU next weekend in what has become a pivotal matchup in the conference race. Tempe is going to be rocking.

Clemson: The Tigers beat Pitt on Saturday to clear the way at No. 3 in the ACC standings. Clemson still needs some help in the form of an SMU or Miami loss to get to Charlotte to play its way into the College Football Playoff field. It’s not looking good, but there’s still a sliver of hope.

Iowa State: Iowa State ended a two-game losing streak with a 34-17 win over Cincinnati on Saturday. The Cyclones have only two losses in Big 12 play, but things aren’t looking good for Iowa State to get back into the conference race. It still has Utah and Kansas State on its schedule, so it still has a chance at finishing as a 10-2 team with a fairly high ranking.

Group Of Five Watch

Boise State: Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty rushed for 159 yards and three touchdowns, leading Boise State to a 42-21 win over San Jose State on Saturday. Boise State was behind San Jose State in the third quarter, but it improved to 9-1 and it has yet to lose any of its six games in Mountain West Play. If Boise State wins out, it’ll be the team representing the Group of 5 in the Playoff.

UNLV: UNLV smoked San Diego State on Saturday night and it still controls its destiny in the Mountain West. If it wins out — including a potential rematch with Boise State in Boise — it would be a two-loss conference champion with a real shot to get into the Playoff.

Tulane:  Tulane lost to Kansas State and Oklahoma in the nonconference and disappeared into obscurity. But while in the darkness, the Green Wave has won eight in a row, including its first seven in American Athletic Conference play. Tulane beat up on Navy and there is a real discussion about whether it is the best Group of 5 team in the country. If Tulane wins the American, it has a shot. It may need help, but it has a shot. 

Army: Army was off this weekend, but the Black Knights are 9-0. They have a huge game coming up next weekend against Notre Dame. The hope for Army, of course, is to fare better against the Irish than Navy did. If Army somehow wins and finishes the season as the unbeaten American champ, it would be in an advantageous spot to make the CFP.

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Georgia at No. 8 Ole Miss
Winner faces No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl 

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State
Winner faces No. 4 Colorado in the Fiesta Bowl 

No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Penn State
Winner faces No. 2 Texas in the Sugar Bowl 

No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Alabama
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl