College Football Playoff Bubble Watch after week 2: Who is in and who is out?
Predicting who is going to make the College Football Playoff is so much harder than it was a year ago. It’s even harder when all you have to go on is two weeks of games.
But that isn’t stopping us.
Every week at the conclusion of the slate, I’ll be channeling my inner college basketball writer and bringing you a Bubble Watch. This list, of course, is subject to change dramatically from week to week as gain more data.
Here are the latest predictions.
Last Four In
Missouri: Don’t roll your eyes. The Tigers proved they could hang last year and now it’s about proving it can win against the elites of the SEC. Missouri has out-scored opponents 89-0 through the first two weeks of the season and outside of back-to-back games against Alabama and Oklahoma, the Tigers have a tame SEC schedule.
Alabama: The Crimson Tide may just have a thing with USF. The final score looks like a blowout, but Alabama was only beating the Bulls by one early in the fourth quarter. They still have a supremely talented roster and a coach in Kalen DeBoer who knows how to win close games. That’ll be big once the competition level increases.
Ole Miss: The Rebels have played two games and blown out two overmatched opponents. Ole Miss has a roster capable of competing for the SEC title, but at the very least, they seem like a no-doubt-about-it top-10 team in the country right now.
USC: The game began late Saturday evening, so you may not have seen USC’s 48-0 win over Utah State. The most important part? The Trojans — yes, these Trojans — shut an opponent out. The defense seems very much improved and the offense, behind Miller Moss and a bunch of elite-level skill players, has me thinking USC is much better than we anticipated.
First Four Out
Penn State: Week one made Penn State look like a world-beater with a new-and-improved offense and an advanced Drew Allar. Then when Penn State returned home against Bowling Green, the game was in question in the fourth quarter. What a confusing pair of results.
Clemson: A week after getting beat down by Georgia, Clemson returned home and took its aggression out on Appalachian State. Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik threw five touchdown passes, leading Clemson to 66 points. Maybe Georgia is just a dominant force that cannot be stopped this year? Clemson’s Playoff hopes are not dead.
Kansas State: You could make the case Kansas State should be viewed as the Big 12 favorite, but it’s a little harder for that view to come into focus after the Wildcats almost lost to Tulane. But now Utah quarterback Cam Rising’s health is in question again — though it seems like he’ll be fine — and you can see the vision of what Kansas State should look like later in the season when things get clicking.
Oklahoma State: Wait a minute. Another Big 12 team has entered the chat. Oklahoma State has been the model of consistency under Mike Gundy and the Cowboys overcame a large deficit against a dangerous Arkansas team and grabbed the win. Oklahoma State gets a tune-up at Tulsa next weekend before back-to-back games against Utah and Kansas State, which should make the Big 12 race much clearer before the beginning of October.
Next Four Out
Oklahoma: I’m willing to listen to arguments about how the Sooners are further along than people give them credit for. Oklahoma, however, needed a safety late in the fourth quarter against Houston to escape with a win. Don’t be down too long, though, because Oklahoma is hosting Tennessee in two weeks in a game that can shift the paradigm of how we view the SEC race. Jackson Arnold vs. Nico Iamaleava? Sign me up.
Iowa State: You came into the year with the ability to make a case for five or even more Big 12 teams winning the conference. Iowa State is one of those teams. The Cyclones went into Kinnick Stadium and knocked off a Hawkeyes team many thought coming into the weekend was going to win double-digit games in the Big Ten. Iowa State plays back-to-back games against Utah and Kansas State to close out the regular season, so there is a lot of runway to be in the College Football Playoff discussion into October and November. Just keep winning.
Louisville: When you look at the ACC, it seems like Miami stands above as the best team in the conference right now. Clemson, too, would like a word. But if you ask who the biggest threat to beat either — or both — of those teams in conference play, Louisville is the likely answer. We’ll find out more about the Cardinals Saturday in a game against a much-improved Georgia Tech.
Arizona: The Wildcats had a really ugly game Saturday. Beating NAU 22-10 isn’t what you’re looking for as you gear up for an exciting Friday night matchup with Kansas State. Arizona, however, has one of the best quarterback-receiver duos in the country and if it gets hot, it could be a really tough out in the Big 12.
Group of 5 Watch
Boise State: You may not have stayed up to 1 a.m. on Sunday morning. You may not have Peacock. But a loss to Oregon on a field goal as time expired isn’t knocking the Broncos out of this position. Running back Ashton Jeanty is emerging as one of the best weapons in the sport and Boise State has a real chance of being the highest-ranked G5 team at the end of the year. It just needs to respond to the Oregon heartbreak by stacking wins.
UNLV: The Rebels kicked off their season by knocking off Big 12 foe Houston and then came back this weekend and dropped 72 on Utah Tech. But if you really want to know if the Rebels are going to be in the College Football Playoff picture in November, make sure to tune in for a road game at Kansas on Saturday evening.
Memphis: The Tigers are off to a 2-0 start, but it gets a road game at Florida State on Saturday. That’s all of a sudden seems to be a really winnable game for Memphis. If Memphis wins, that’ll be a nice resume highlight even if it turns out that beating Florida State isn’t that hard this year. The schedule lines up quite nicely for the Tigers.
Liberty: The Flames needed a 21-point fourth quarter to beat New Mexico State. Liberty was actually close to losing, which many people came into the year thinking it wouldn’t do. The Flames are going to be a mainstay on this list — like it or not — as long as they remain unbeaten. At the end of the year, I anticipate a debate about what to do with an unbeaten Liberty and another G5 team that has a more impressive resume.
The Projected Bracket
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Missouri
Winner faces No. 1 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl
No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Texas
Winner faces No. 4 Utah in the Fiesta Bowl
No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Oregon
Winner faces No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl
No. 11 USC at No. 6 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl