College Football Playoff Bubble Watch after week 3: Who is in and who is out?
Predicting who is going to make the College Football Playoff is so much harder than it was a year ago. It’s even harder when all you have to go on is two weeks of games.
But that isn’t stopping us.
Every week at the conclusion of the slate, I’ll be channeling my inner college basketball writer and bringing you a Bubble Watch. This list, of course, is subject to change dramatically from week to week as gain more data.
Here are the latest predictions.
Last Four In
Oregon: There was some concern something was off with Oregon after an underwhelming few weeks to open the season. It almost lost to Boise State last weekend. The Ducks, though, looked more like themselves in a blowout of Oregon State on Saturday. Ohio State still looks like the clear favorite to win the Big Ten this year.
Missouri: Though there are a lot of teams in the SEC that currently seem more dangerous than Missouri, the Tigers are really good and have one of the easier paths to the CFP. Missouri has back-to-back games against Oklahoma and Alabama in the middle of its schedule, but it could lose both of them and still make it into the field. Missouri, though, should have a chance to win both of those games.
Ole Miss: Ole Miss has played three games and has scored more than 40 in each of them. The Rebels have yet to be tested, but they have a roster that stacks up anyone in college football. The SEC is going to be ultra-competitive this year, but quarterback Jaxson Dart, running back Henry Parrish and receiver Tre Harris are going to be really tough to stop for anyone.
USC: The Trojans had an open week, but they were at home watching Michigan’s offense sputter around and were licking their chops. USC couldn’t stop anyone a year ago, but now its vastly improved defense gives them a real shot in Big Ten contention. A much-improved defense and an offense with an impressive collection of playmakers makes USC really dangerous.
First Four Out
Penn State: You could make the case Penn State benefits more from the expansion of the CFP than any other program. The problem? It just so happens to coincide with the expansion of the Big Ten. Though Penn State could very well be the third-best team in the Big Ten this year, it’s likely going to find itself right on the cusp of the field in December. If you want to swap Penn State for USC on this list, go ahead. The Trojans and Nittany Lions face off in Los Angeles on Oct. 12.
Utah: It’s hard to envision a world where two Big 12 teams crack the field this year, though it’s certainly possible. Utah has been considered the favorite to win the conference since the beginning of the season, but Kansas State beat up on Arizona on Friday night and looks really dangerous. Quarterback Avery Johnson is really fun to watch and is only getting better. Because that game was scheduled before conference realignment, it didn’t count in the Big 12 standings in this quirky sport. Everyone has a clean slate in the conference race. When Utah gets Cam Rising back, it certainly could reclaim its stake as the best team in the Big 12.
Clemson: Just because Clemson got blown out by Georgia doesn’t mean it isn’t going to be alive in the CFP race in November. Before being idle over the weekend, the Tigers bounced back from the embarrassing loss to the Bulldogs by hanging 66 on Appalachian State. This is still a team that’s probably going to win 10 games and vying for one of the last four slots in the field.
Notre Dame: If Notre Dame would have lost to Northern Illinois in the four-team field era, you could have written The Irish off and forgotten about them. But after suffering that embarrassing upset, Notre Dame returned to the field Saturday and hammered Purdue, 66-7. Notre Dame absolutely could run the table or suffer only one more loss this season, which puts it right in the 15 range in the rankings. Notre Dame is still worth tracking, especially if it beats Louisville in a few weeks.
Next Four Out
Oklahoma: The Sooners found themselves on defense in a one-possession game in the fourth quarter of a narrow win over Tulane on Saturday. They have not gotten off to a fast start this year, but we are going to find out exactly who Oklahoma is Saturday when it hosts a powerful Tennessee team. It’s going to be an incredibly interesting game, especially when it comes to seeing the Jackson Arnold vs. Nico Iamaleava matchup.
Oklahoma State: The Big 12 race is completely up in the air and it’s hard to count out a Cowboys team that has been nothing but consistent during the Mike Gundy era. The thrilling comeback win over Arkansas was a fun game a few weeks ago, but the next two on the schedule — Utah and Kansas State — will go a long way in shaping the Big 12 race and these projections.
Nebraska: Maybe I’m caught up in Dylan Raiola mania. Guilty as charged. But if you take a look at Nebraska’s schedule, it’s very reasonable to expect the Cornhuskers to be 7-0 heading into the Ohio State game. Even if Nebraska loses that game, there is a clear route to 10 wins, especially if Raiola keeps producing at a high level.
Louisville: The ACC is kind of a mess this year. Miami currently looks like the clear favorite in the conference and Clemson is, well, Clemson. But the Cardinals have a real chance to turn some heads when they play Notre Dame in a few weeks. Louisville is out to a 2-0 start, but its schedule is actually pretty tough when you consider it has to play Miami, Boston College and Clemson all in a row.
Group of 5 Watch
UNLV: The Rebels had 86 passing yards and somehow came away with a 23-20 win over Kansas on Friday night. UNLV got some luck late in the game — like when quarterback Matthew Sluka fumbled it, the entire defense seemingly touched it and the Rebels recovered it for a nine-yard gain — but a win is a win. That is now UNLV’s second win over a Big 12 opponent in its first three games and it still has Syracuse, Oregon State and Boise State on its schedule. They are in pole position for that No. 12 spot.
Memphis: Before the season, Memphis beating Florida State would have been a huge quality win in the race to be the highest-ranked Group of 5 team. While beating the Seminoles 20-12 is still a huge win for the Tigers, it doesn’t hit quite as hard given Florida State is a dumpster fire. Still, Memphis remains unbeaten going into a conference game against Navy next weekend.
Boise State: The Broncos were off this week after suffering a heart-breaking, final-second loss to Oregon last weekend. Boise State, though, has one of the best players in the country in running back Ashton Jeanty and a schedule that still features a game against UNLV. There is a lot of opportunity for Boise State to work its way back into the G5 picture.
Liberty: The Flames haven’t been particularly dominant this year, but they are a team we have to keep our eye on in this race. Why? Because there’s a real chance they could finish undefeated with a weak Conference USA schedule. Liberty does have a big game at Appalachian State in two weeks that could tell us quite a bit about its chances.
The Projected Bracket
No. 9 Missouri at No. 8 Oregon
Winner faces No. 1 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl
No. 12 UNLV at No. 5 Georgia
Winner faces No. 4 Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl
No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Alabama
Winner faces No. 2 Texas in the Sugar Bowl
No. 11 USC at No. 6 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl