College Football Playoff Bubble Watch after week 4: Who is in and who is out?

Predicting who is going to make the College Football Playoff is so much harder than it was a year ago. It’s even harder when all you have to go on is four weeks of games.

But that isn’t stopping us.

Every week at the conclusion of the slate, I’ll be channeling my inner college basketball writer and bringing you a Bubble Watch. This list, of course, is subject to change dramatically from week to week as gain more data.

Last Four In 

Clemson: We all that memory of Clemson getting blown out by Georgia in the season-opener, but the Tigers have responded to that humbling loss with two blowout wins in which it scored 59 points or more. The most recent win was a 59-35 win over N.C. State on Saturday. Miami is still the favorite to win the ACC, but this Tigers team looks like it could make the ACC Championship and get into the 12-team field with a win or loss in Charlotte.

Alabama: The Crimson Tide host Georgia next week and could find themselves neck-and-neck with Texas and Tennessee as SEC favorites. But for the time being, it’s just hard to picture a world where four SEC teams finish in the top seven in the final poll. Alabama is really, really good and it has a big opportunity against the Bulldogs to prove they belong much higher in this projection.

Ole Miss: The Rebels went all-in on assembling a roster during the offseason that could compete for national titles. Just how good is Ole Miss? We’re still waiting to see it play a really good opponent. What we have seen is four blowout wins over overmatched opponents. The Rebels have Oklahoma, LSU and Georgia still on their regular-season schedule, but it’s a pretty advantageous route to 10 or more wins compared to other SEC schedules.

Penn State: The Nittany Lions responded to almost losing to Bowling Green at home by blowing Kent State out 56-0 over the weekend. Penn State looked like a world-beater in its rout of West Virginia in Morgantown in the season-opener, but the Mountaineers have had a rough start to the year. It’s still hard to really put your finger on just how good Penn State is, but it has a tough matchup with Illinois on Friday before traveling to USC on Oct. 12.

Last Four Out 

Missouri: There are just so many SEC teams that believe it should make the Playoff and Missouri’s schedule really makes you feel like the Tigers are going to make it. There is just a limit of how many SEC teams can be put in the field before we get into the meat of the conference schedule and the Tigers playing an overtime game against Vanderbilt over the weekend is the reason for the slide. Missouri’s schedule is so manageable that it should be able to climb back into the field as teams start racking up losses around it.

Notre Dame: If you didn’t watch Notre Dame’s 28-3 win over Miami (Ohio) on Saturday, you may not know the Irish were losing 3-0 to the RedHawks pretty late in the first half. But Notre Dame turned it on and won pretty comfortably, avoiding another MAC nightmare. Notre Dame has a pretty easy schedule, so finishing the season on the bubble is likely if it figures itself out.

Louisville: Outside of Miami and Clemson, Louisville seems like one of the best teams in the ACC. The Cardinals beat a scrappy Georgia Tech team at home on Saturday before its big-time matchup against Notre Dame in South Bend next weekend. 

Michigan: Though Michigan is a deeply flawed team offensively, the Wolverines found a way to scrape together a win at home against USC on Saturday. Michigan won by running the football and playing really good defense. The Wolverines, though, aren’t going to be able to win every game with quarterback Alex Orji finishing with 32 passing yards. Michigan needs huge improvement to the passing game if it doesn’t want to finish with four losses this year.

Next Four Out

USC: The Trojans have to feel sick about they way it lost to Michigan. Holding Michigan’s quarterback to 32 yards passing and still losing isn’t going to sit well. After they got beat up in the trenches in the first half in Ann Arbor, USC played an amazing second half and broke at the end. USC still has plenty of opportunity to keep itself alive in the Playoff hunt.

Oklahoma State: The Cowboys lost a hard-fought game at home against Utah on Saturday even though the Utes didn’t have starting quarterback Cameron Rising. But Oklahoma State has been a very consistent winner under Mike Gundy and it has a chance to play itself back into Playoff contention. 

Iowa: The Hawkeyes are still kicking themselves for letting the Iowa State game get away, but it has responded to that heart-breaking loss with two consecutive victories, most recently a 31-14 blowout at Minnesota. Iowa will probably lose handily to Ohio State in its next game on Oct. 5, but it could still win 10 games this year. 

LSU: The Tigers got a hard-fought 34-17 win over UCLA on its home field over the weekend and have rattled off three-straight wins since its season-opening loss to USC. LSU may be higher on this list if it still didn’t have to play Ole Miss, at Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma. 

Group of 5 Watch

UNLV: After beating Kansas last Friday night to add its second victory over a Power 4 opponent in its first three games, UNLV had an open week this weekend. The Rebels still have Syracuse, Oregon State and Boise State on their schedule, so it’s a tough road ahead, but they are in pole position for the Playoff spot at the moment.  

Boise State: Could you imagine what the discourse around Boise State would be right now had the Broncos pulled off the win against Oregon in week two? That’s a game it could have – no, should have — won. Still, Boise State is probably the favorite in the Mountain West right now and it has a chance to reassert itself as the best G5 team in the country. Behind running back Ashton Jeanty, one of the best players in the country, the Broncos have a chance to run the table.

Liberty: Liberty was losing to East Carolina 17-0 in the second quarter on Saturday. The Flames came back to win 35-24 behind a four-touchdown performance by quarterback Kaidon Salter. The Flames have a weak schedule and a really good chance to go undefeated this year, but they have been flirting with defeat more often than they’d like through the first month of the season. 

James Madison: The Dukes were one of the biggest stories of the weekend after they dropped 53 points in the first half on North Carolina en route to a 70-50 win. James Madison remains unbeaten with a game against Ball State next weekend. 

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Clemson
Winner faces No. 1 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl 

No. 12 UNLV at No. 5 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 4 Utah in the Fiesta Bowl 

No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Oregon
Winner faces No. 2 Texas in the Sugar Bowl 

No. 11 Penn State at No. 6 Georgia
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl