College Football Playoff Bubble Watch after Week 5: Ole Miss out, K-State back in the mix

Predicting who is going to make the College Football Playoff is so much harder than it was a year ago. It’s even harder when all you have to go on is four weeks of games.

But that isn’t stopping us.

Every week at the conclusion of the slate, I’ll be channeling my inner college basketball writer and bringing you a Bubble Watch. This list, of course, is subject to change dramatically from week to week as gain more data.

Last Four In

Tennessee: Though I think Tennessee is a legitimate national title contender this year, it also happens to be in the same conference as Georgia, Alabama and Texas. Tennessee plays both Alabama and Georgia in the regular season, so it’ll have ample opportunity to go out and show the world the Volunteers are being underestimated as the No. 7 seed in these projections.

Clemson: This was the week where Clemson almost overtook Miami as the No. 3 seed. After getting blown out by Georgia in the season-opener, the Tigers have blown out three consecutive opponents. The offense seems to have figured some stuff out. Even if the Tigers win out but lose to the Hurricanes in the ACC Championship, they’ll likely make the 12-team field.

Penn State: Though it wasn’t a sexy win or a game that features a ton of jaw-dropping highlights, Penn State beat a really good Illinois team Saturday and limited the Illinois offense to less than 250 yards. While I’m still trying to piece together who Penn State actually is this year, it has a big opportunity to prove to the country it’s for real when it travels to USC on Oct. 12.

Notre Dame: The loss to Northern Illinois is still fresh on everybody’s mind because that was such a shocking loss, but Notre Dame took care of business against Louisville on Saturday. Remember, many thought Louisville would be one of the toughest tests on the Irish’s schedule. Notre Dame has to travel to USC in its season-finale, but it’ll likely be favored for the rest of its games leading into that trip to Los Angeles on Nov. 30. Notre Dame’s schedule is really manageable.

First Four Out

Missouri: When you look at Missouri’s schedule, it’s easy to want to put the Tigers into the projected field. But there are just too many good SEC teams this year and there aren’t going to be eight of them in the Playoff. Someone has to miss out and Mizzou is that team right now after nearly losing to Vanderbilt a few weeks ago. The Tigers are an exciting team and have plenty of opportunity to prove slotting them here is a mistake.

Ole Miss: The Rebels have been in the projected field every week during the first month of the season because they have a deep, talented roster and a very manageable schedule. But Ole Miss dropped a game at home to Kentucky on Saturday, throwing into question its entire program strategy. Ole Miss certainly can play its way back into the field by bunching some wins together, but it’s hard not to be disappointed in the Rebels right now.

Kansas State: The Big 12 is completely unhinged. If someone could confidently tell you they know who is going to win that conference this year, they are lying. The Wildcats absolutely could win the Big 12 and capture the No. 4 seed, but it has already had a clunker this year in a blowout loss to BYU. Kansas State bounced back from that loss with a blowout of Oklahoma State on Saturday, but it needs to win a bunch more before it crawls its way back into the projected Playoff field.

Michigan: After being blown out by Texas at home, Michigan has won three-straight games, including a quality win over USC. The Wolverines, though, are so deeply flawed in the passing game that it’s hard to imagine Michigan just morphing into Iowa and winning 11 games. Maybe Alex Orji will progress in a big way down the strethc, but right now the Wolverines are in danger of losing every single week.

Next Four Out

USC: It was easy to let your imagination get carried away with USC. There is a lot to like about the Trojans, especially now that the Trojans came back from a soul-crushing loss to the Wolverines to handle Wisconsin. USC travels to Minneapolis next week before hosting Penn State in a game that will go a long way in determining who plays for the Big Ten title

Arizona: There may just be a bad loss on every Big 12 team’s schedule, but Arizona looked really great in a win over Utah on Saturday. The Noah Fifita–Tetairoa McMillian connection is electric and the Wildcats are a lot of fun to watch. It’ll be interesting to see if Arizona can climb into the center of the Big 12 race.

LSU: Since losing to USC by seven in the season-opener, LSU has rattled off four consecutive wins and are on the cusp of cracking . Through the leadership of quarterback Garrett Nussmier, the Tigers could absolutely over-achieve and make the SEC race more fun. 

Iowa State: Iowa State is off to a 4-0 start this season and it already has a win over Iowa in its back pocket. The Cyclones have an easy schedule before facing Utah and Kansas State in back-to-back weeks to close out the regular season. If Iowa State keeps winning, it could find climb really high in this poll. 

Group of 5 Watch

UNLV: It was a hectic week in Las Vegas. UNLV grabbed all the headlines when quarterback Matthew Sluka opted to redshirt this year after an NIL dispute. The quarterback who replaced Sluka, Hajj-Malik Williams, threw for 182 yards and three touchdowns and rushed for 119 yards and another score in UNLV’s blowout of Fresno State. UNLV plays Syracuse on Friday night as it continues to pursue the final playoff spot after losing its starting quarterback.

Boise State: Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty is literally averaging a first down every time he touches the ball. In Boise State‘s 45-24 win over Washington State on Saturday night, Jeanty rushed for 259 yards and four touchdowns. Boise State’s game at UNLV on Oct. 25 is going to be must-watch television.

Liberty: Appalachian State was forced to cancel its game against Liberty this weekend because of the impacts of Tropical Storm Helene, so Liberty heads into October 4-0. Backed by quarterback Kaidon Salter, the Flames have a real chance to go undefeated, which will make the debate regarding who should be the highest-ranked G5 champion contentious.

James Madison: A week after dropping 70 on North Carolina, James Madison beat Ball State 63-7 and quarterback Alonza Barnett III threw for 280 yards and five touchdowns. The Dukes remain unbeaten heading into a road game against UL Monroe next Saturday. 

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Clemson at No. 8 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 1 Alabama in the Rose Bowl 

No. 12 UNLV at No. 5 Texas
Winner faces No. 4 BYU in the Fiesta Bowl 

No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Oregon
Winner faces No. 2 Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl 

No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Georgia
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl