College Football Playoff Bubble Watch after Week 6: Tennessee, Alabama in dicey positions

Predicting who is going to make the College Football Playoff is so much harder than it was a year ago. It’s even harder when all you have to go on is six weeks of games.

But that isn’t stopping us.

Every week after the slate, I’ll be channeling my inner college basketball writer and bringing you a Bubble Watch. This list, of course, is subject to change dramatically from week to week as we gain more data.

Last Four In

Alabama: As embarrassing as the loss to Vanderbilt was Saturday, too many other losses happened on the same day for the Crimson Tide to drop out of the projections. Alabama does still have a win over Georgia on its resume and this team is talented enough to go on to win the SEC. Though it could happen, it’s hard to imagine a world where Alabama loses two more games and doesn’t make the Playoff.

Iowa State: Nobody knows what’s going on in the Big 12, but the Cyclones are off to a really impressive start. They are 5-0, have a win over Iowa in the nonconference and started Big 12 play with wins over Houston and Baylor. Though anyone in the Big 12 can drop a game to anyone else, the Cyclones’ schedule sets up nicely for them to potentially make a run out to 10-0.

Miami: There are two ways to look at Miami‘s thrilling comeback win over Cal late Saturday night. You can look at its skeptically and criticize the Hurricanes for getting down 35-10 to the Golden Bears. Or you could praise for Miami for never giving up and fighting back to win a tough game on the road. Clemson now looks like the class of the ACC, but old Hurricanes teams would have folded. This one didn’t.

Indiana: Don’t look now but Indiana is 6-0 after taking care of business at Northwestern on Saturday. The Hoosiers enter the bye week with a chance to regroup, then come back to a very manageable schedule. Outside of Ohio State, there isn’t a single game on the Hoosiers’ schedule that you chalk up to an automatic loss. If Indiana keeps winning behind passionate first-year head coach Curt Cignetti, it has a real chance of cracking the 12-team field.

First Four Out

Tennessee: Two weeks ago, it felt like Tennessee was a legitimate national title contender. But after going on the road and losing at Arkansas on Saturday, there are some questions about whether this offense is potent enough to navigate the rest of its SEC schedule without losing one or two more games.

Notre Dame: The Irish’s resume got a lot better Saturday as it watched Notre Dame blow out Missouri. Notre Dame has the glaring loss to Northern Illinois, but it has a real chance to run the table, especially now that USC looks much worse than it did three weeks ago.

Texas A&M: Texas A&M started the year with a rough loss against Notre Dame at Kyle Field. It hasn’t lost since, most recently embarrassing Missouri on that same home field. Conner Weigman returned as the Aggies’ starting quarterback and he looked as good as he ever has. Texas A&M has a fairly easy schedule for SEC standards, so the Aggies are in a pretty prime position to compete for a spot in the field.

Ole Miss: It was a rough decision to only have three SEC teams in my field, so there are going to be a bunch of teams from that conference right on the fringe of getting in. Ole Miss suffered a tough loss to Kentucky a few weeks ago and bounced back Saturday with a convincing win over South Carolina. If Ole Miss can string together consecutive wins over LSU and Oklahoma, the Rebels will probably find themselves back in the top 12 in the projections.

Next Four Out

Texas Tech: While most of the country was asleep, Texas Tech was taking care of business in Tucson. The Red Raiders knocked off Arizona 28-22 to improve to 3-0 in Big 12 play. This conference has wacky results every week, but Texas Tech has overcome an embarrassing loss to Washington State in the nonconference slate to position itself nicely in the Big 12 race.

Kansas State: The last time Kansas State was on the field, it was wiping the floor with Oklahoma State. The Wildcats had a bye week during a chaotic weekend, but it returns to action next Saturday against Colorado. The Buffaloes have yet to suffer a loss in Big 12 play, so the result of that game will impact the conference race and who is sitting on this list a week from now.

SMU: SMU got off to a rough start this season, struggling with Nevada and ultimately losing to BYU. That BYU loss, however, looks much better now and things are starting to feel better for the Mustangs, who now sit at 5-1. After beating Louisville on Saturday, SMU probably feels like it is a dark horse to make the ACC title game. 

LSU: LSU’s season-opening loss to USC isn’t aging well, but the Tigers are still 4-1 heading into a home game against Ole Miss this weekend. If LSU is able to pull that victory off and change how the country perceives it, the Tigers will launch itself up this list. 

Group of 5 Watch

Boise State: As the weeks go on, it’s becoming clearer that Boise State’s last-second loss to Oregon wasn’t a fluke. What running back Ashton Jeanty is doing for the Broncos is absolutely absurd, as he picked up 186 yards and three touchdowns on 13 carries in Boise State’s 62-30 win over Utah State. The impending clash between Boise State and UNLV is going to be electric.

UNLV: One of the most entertaining games of the week was UNLV’s overtime loss to Syracuse on Friday night. Had a roughing the passer call gone a different direction, the Rebels absolutely could have won that game. Quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams and receiver Ricky White III are stars. As disappointed as UNLV is coming up short, it still has a chance to be the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion if it gets through Boise State (maybe twice) and captures the Mountain West Championship.

Liberty: Appalachian State was forced to cancel its game against Liberty last weekend because of the impacts of Tropical Storm Helene and Liberty doesn’t play until Tuesday’s matchup with FIU. The Flames are 4-0 and have a real chance to go undefeated. If Liberty is an undefeated Conference USA champ at the end of the year, it’ll be in the discussion for the Playoff.

Navy: You’re probably not used to seeing a service academy in a Playoff projection, but it’s the new world, baby. The Midshipmen have been blowing people out on their schedule and already have a quality win over Memphis. Navy plays Notre Dame on Oct. 26, so it has a chance to really put the world on notice it’s for real. Army is also unbeaten, plays in the American and plays Notre Dame this year.

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Iowa State at No. 8 Alabama
Winner faces No. 1 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl 

No. 12 UNLV at No. 5 Georgia
Winner faces No. 4 BYU in the Fiesta Bowl 

No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Penn State
Winner faces No. 2 Texas in the Sugar Bowl 

No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Oregon
Winner faces No. 3 Clemson in the Peach Bowl