College Football Playoff Bubble Watch after Week 7: Who is in, who is out?

Predicting who is going to make the College Football Playoff is so much harder than it was a year ago. It’s even harder when conference races are just now heating up.

But that isn’t stopping us.

Every week after the slate, I’ll be channeling my inner college basketball writer and bringing you a Bubble Watch. This list, of course, is subject to change dramatically from week to week as we gain more data.

Last Four In

Alabama: Alabama has had such a confusing three weeks of results. How do you explain beating Georgia, losing to Vanderbilt and then escaping South Carolina in the game’s final seconds? That’s a lot to unpack, but the Crimson Tide haven’t looked elite in each of their last two games. Still, it owns one of the best wins of the season and is as dangerous as anyone in the country when playing well.

Miami: The Hurricanes got a much-needed bye week this week after almost losing each of the last two games. First it was having a last-second Hail Mary overturned against Virginia Tech. Then it was having to erase a 35-10 deficit in the third quarter to escape at Cal. Miami has Cam Ward and a very talented roster heading into the second half of its schedule unbeaten. It also doesn’t have to play Clemson in the regular season. The Hurricanes’ path into the field seems clear.

Indiana: Indiana didn’t play this weekend, but first-year head coach Curt Cignetti has his Hoosiers 6-0. Vibes are high in Bloomington, especially considering there are no games on Indiana’s schedule — maybe outside of Ohio State — it is expected to lose. If Indiana keeps winning, it has a real chance of cracking the 12-team field.

Iowa State: It’s hard to envision a world where two Big 12 teams make the Playoff this year, but BYU and Iowa State just keep winning and both have impressive resumes. The Cyclones went into a tough situation against a West Virginia team who had yet to lose in conference play and left with a win. Iowa State is a tough team with really good skill position players. It also has a very manageable schedule, especially if it continues to show it isn’t susceptible to the weird ups and downs most teams in this conference struggle with.

First Four Out

Notre Dame: Weeks keep passing by and Notre Dame keeps winning, adding more and more separation from that awful loss to Northern Illinois. The Irish’s win over Texas A&M looks really good and they have some potential resume-boasting games coming up against Army and Navy (you read that right). It’s hard to imagine Notre Dame not making the Playoff if it finishes the season with one loss, so it just has to keep rolling.

Texas A&M: The Aggies didn’t play Saturday, but the last time out they absolutely destroyed Missouri. Quarterback Connor Weigman returned from injury and looked awesome. There’s a lot to feel good about if you’re a Texas A&M fan. The Aggies have a manageable schedule remaining in conference play, but they host a hot LSU team in two weeks. That’s going to be a huge game in the Playoff race.

LSU: Many of us just gave up on the Tigers after they lost to USC in their season-opener. It got even harder to envision LSU there at the end after it lost star defender Harold Perkins for the season. But LSU has piled up five-straight and made a statement Saturday night in an overtime win over Ole Miss. That game felt like an elimination game because both teams entered with a loss. The Tigers prevailed, but they have their work cut out for them the next three weeks with road games at Arkansas and Texas A&M followed by a home game against Alabama. We’ll know exactly where LSU stands in early November.

Tennessee: This is a team we thought could win the national title this year. Technically, the Volunteers still could. But a week removed from losing to Arkansas, Tennessee found itself in an overtime game with Florida. Tennessee won, but the offense hasn’t been nearly as effective as we once thought. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava is still young and gaining valuable experience, but Tennessee looks like a different team than the one from a few weeks ago.

Next Four Out

Kansas State: Kansas State has an ugly blemish on its resume. Losing to BYU by 29 points sticks out like a sore thumb. But BYU, as it turns out is really good, and Kansas State is still alive in the Big 12 race. The Wildcats took a huge step forward with a win over Colorado on Saturday night, escaping Boulder after a dramatic finish that saw multiple lead changes. Kansas State gave the Buffalos their first loss in conference play and Avery Johnson took another step forward as a young quarterback.

Pitt: We need to start having a real conversation about this Pitt team. The Panthers improved to 6-0 on Saturday with a 17-15 win over California. Any team that has made it this far in the season without suffering a loss is worth our attention. Backed by quarterback Eli Holstein, Pittsburgh has to play Syracuse, SMU and Clemson in three of the next four weeks. The ACC still seems to be lead by Clemson and Miami, but there is opportunity for someone to surprise us.

SMU: Speaking of teams surprising us in the ACC, what about this SMU team? Things got off to a rocky start this year with a near-loss to Nevada and a loss to BYU. But that BYU loss looks much better now and the Mustangs are off to a 2-0 start in ACC play in their first year in the conference. Its next two games are against Stanford and Duke. If it wins those games and improves to 4-0 in conference play, it’ll return home to host Pitt in what could be a huge game.

Texas Tech: The Big 12 is a hodgepodge of capable teams. That means they’ll probably starting cannibalizing each other. As the games keep being played, the picture will get clearer and clearer. But Texas Tech is 3-0 in conference play and has Baylor and TCU next up on the schedule. We’re living in a reality where the Red Raiders could be 5-0 in the Big 12 heading into a pivotal game at Iowa State on Nov. 2. 

Group of 5 Watch

Boise State: The Broncos found itself in a one-possession game in the second half against Hawaii early Sunday morning after most college football fans were asleep. But Boise State, which played Oregon down to the wire earlier in the season, has perhaps the best player in college football on its team in Ashton Jeanty. The running back carried the ball 31 times for 210 yards and two total touchdowns in Boise State’s 28-7 win over Hawaii.

UNLV: Since losing to Syracuse in a heart-breaker in overtime last Friday evening, some people have lost track of these Rebels. But if they keep winning behind quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams and star receiver Ricky White III, they’ll find themselves hosting Boise State on Oct. 25 in a game that’ll go a long way in determining the Mountain West race. The Rebels are still very much alive in the Playoff race.

Navy: You’re probably not used to seeing a service academy in a Playoff projection, but both Navy and Army are undefeated this year. Navy didn’t play Saturday and Army blew out UAB, but the Midshipmen get the nod here because they have the best win between the two programs. They beat Memphis. Navy and Army both play Notre Dame this year, so we’ll find out more about both of these teams. For now? We have to consider both are really, really good.

Liberty: The Flames played on Tuesday night and beat FIU, 31-24. Liberty isn’t blowing teams out the way it did for much of last season, but if it finishes the campaign as an unbeaten Conference USA champion, that could make for quite the debate at the end of the year.

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Miami at No. 8 Alabama
Winner faces No. 1 Texas in the Rose Bowl 

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State
Winner faces No. 4 BYU in the Fiesta Bowl 

No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Penn State
Winner faces No. 2 Oregon in the Sugar Bowl 

No. 11 Iowa State at No. 6 Georgia
Winner faces No. 3 Clemson in the Peach Bowl