College Football Playoff Bubble Watch after Week 8: Who is in, who is out?

Predicting who will make the College Football Playoff is so much harder than it was a year ago. It’s even harder when conference races are just now heating up.

But that isn’t stopping us.

Every week after the slate, I’ll channel my inner college basketball writer and bring you a Bubble Watch. Of course, this list is subject to change dramatically from week to week as we gain more data.

Last Four In

Notre Dame: How many weeks have to pass before we stop defining this Notre Dame team by its loss to NIU? For some, that won’t change. But the Irish have responded to that embarrassing loss by running through their last five opponents. Riley Leonard and the offense seemed to have figured some stuff out. Notre Dame faces Navy this weekend and that, all of a sudden, maybe the biggest test remaining on its schedule.

Tennessee: This Volunteers team just won a hard-fought game over Alabama. Yes, the Crimson Tide are a flawed team this year. This isn’t Nick Saban’s squad. But Tennessee didn’t play its best football and beat Alabama. Even if the Volunteers lose to Georgia later in the year, they may make the field at 10-2. If Tennessee sneaks in and gets hot, it could make a run.

Penn State: The Nittany Lions had a bye week this week and entered the back half of their schedule unbeaten. Penn State has the pieces to contend for a Big Ten championship, but James Franklin still has to prove he can win the big one. Penn State hosts Ohio State on Nov. 2 in a game that’ll show us whether the Nittany Lions are under-ranked on this list.

Indiana: The country is starting to catch up to the fact that Indiana is a legit playoff contender. If you’re juding by the program’s history, you may not be able to get past the blockage in your brain when thinking about the Hoosiers. This team, though, is legit. They showed that with a 56-7 domination of Nebraska on Saturday. They also have a very manageable schedule this year. Being an 11-win team is realistic.

First Four Out

Iowa State: The Cyclones won a thriller against UCF on Saturday night. Iowa State had an 11-play, 80-yard touchdown drive capped by a one-yard Rocco Becht touchdown run with 30 seconds left to escape with the 38-35 win over the Knights. Iowa State is neck-and-neck with BYU in the tough Big 12 race and very much could wind up being the No. 4 seed in the Playoff field. With the way the season is playing out, though, it’s just hard to envision two Big 12 teams making it when all the dust settles. 

LSU: It’s hard to get the fact that LSU lost to USC out of our heads, especially because the Trojans keep losing in the Big Ten. But LSU is hitting on all cylinders right now after a 34-10 win over Arkansas on Sunday evening. The Tigers have now won their last six games — including a win over Ole Miss — to put themselves right in the thick of the Playoff race. Next weekend LSU goes to Texas A&M to play in a game that will likely thrust the winner into the field in next week’s projections.

Alabama: Alabama can play with any team in the country on its best day. The Crimson Tide proved that with a win over Georgia, which got a lot more impactful after the Bulldogs beat Texas on Saturday night. The problem? Alabama hasn’t been playing very well since that Georgia win, dropping games to Vanderbilt and, most recently, Tennessee. Alabama has two losses now and it’s hard to envision it will be able to make it through the rest of the season without dropping another one.

Pitt: The Panthers enjoyed their bye week this weekend with a 6-0 record. Though the ACC seems like a two-team race between Clemson and Miami, Pittsburgh has plenty of runway to prove it is for real this year, starting Thursday night when it hosts Syracuse. It also has SMU, Clemson and Louisville on the schedule. Eli Holstein and the Panthers have been impressive, but it’s a rocky schedule, which makes it hard to project them into the Playoff field at the moment. 

Next Four Out

Texas A&M: The Aggies have a lot to feel good about, even if they didn’t blow out Mississippi State on Saturday afternoon. Texas A&M has rattled off six consecutive wins since dropping its opener to Notre Dame, most notably blowing out Missouri at home a few weeks ago. This upcoming weekend Kyle Field is going to be loud. Texas A&M is going to be hyped. If the Aggies find a way to pull that off, they could jump up into the field projection next Sunday.

Kansas State: Kansas State was a trendy preseason favorite to win the Big 12, but it fell out of the spotlight when it got blown out by BYU. The Wildcats, though, have been steadily working their way back into the picture. On Saturday, it blew out West Virginia and its last three wins have become a nice collection on the resume. It has four winnable games before it closes the regular season on the road at Iowa State, which could be a play-in game for the Big 12 Championship Game.

SMU: SMU is a three-point loss to BYU away from being unbeaten right now. That loss, too, looks a lot better today than it did the day it happened. The Mustangs, playing in their first year in the ACC, thumped Stanford 40-10 on Saturday to improve to 4-0 in conference play. Next up is Duke. The Mustangs host Pitt on Nov. 2 in what could be a game that helps determine whether they get to Charlotte.

Illinois: How about Bret Beilema‘s Fighting Illini? Illinois hosted Michigan and thumped the defending national champions Saturday to improve to 6-1 on the season. The Illini have to turn around and travel to Oregon next weekend, but their schedule is quite easy otherwise. If Illinois gets to 10 wins this season, that’ll likely put them in the top 20 and on the fringe of the Playoff race.

Group of 5 watch

Boise State: The Broncos seem like the best Group of 5 team in the country, especially as that close loss at Oregon from earlier in the season continues to age like fine wine. Boise State has the best running back in college football in Ashton Jeanty, who has been racking up Barry Sanders-like numbers so far this season. Boise State has a huge game at UNLV on Friday night that will go a long way in determining the Mountain West race and, in turn, the race to be the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion.

UNLV: With a win against Oregon State on Saturday night, UNLV improved to 6-1. Its only blemish on the resume is an overtime loss to Syracuse a few weeks ago, which probably still stings the Rebels faithful. But UNLV has taken care of business and picked up two wins since, setting up an electric matchup with Boise State in Las Vegas on Friday night. This could set up the first of two games between Boise State and UNLV, who are the two front-runners in the Group of 5 race for a Playoff spot.

Navy: Navy improved to 6-0 with a 51-17 win over Charlotte on Saturday. The Midshipmen, who put up 24 points in the first quarter against the 49ers, have scored 34 points or more in every single game this year. Coming up this weekend is a matchup with Notre Dame in New York. If Navy finds a way to knock off The Irish, that could get the country to take them more seriously as a Playoff contender. 

Army: People were joking a few weeks ago that Army and Navy could face each other in the American title game this year, but every week that passes by that becomes more and more likely. Army took care of business against East Carolina on Saturday to improve to 7-0. The Black Knights also get a chance to play Notre Dame this year.

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl 

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State
Winner faces No. 4 BYU in the Fiesta Bowl 

No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Miami
Winner faces No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl 

No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Texas
Winner faces No. 3 Clemson in the Peach Bowl