College Football Playoff Bubble Watch after Week 9: Who is in, who is out?

Predicting who will make the College Football Playoff is so much harder than it was a year ago. It’s even harder when conference races are in the thick of things.

But that isn’t stopping us.

Every week after the slate, I’ll channel my inner college basketball writer and bring you a Bubble Watch. Of course, this list is subject to change dramatically from week to week as we gain more data.

Last Four In

Ohio State: Ohio State is likely going to be favored in its game at Penn State next weekend, but the Buckeyes have some real concerns on the offensive line. Though the Buckeyes have the talent to win the national title, they are not playing great football right now, which was evident in a near-loss to Nebraska on Saturday. Until Ohio State proves it can beat Penn State, it doesn’t deserve the benefit of assuming it will, which is why they’re in the back end of these projections for the first time this season.

Indiana: Many thought the Washington game could be a real scare for Indiana, especially because it didn’t have starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke. Backup quarterback Tayven Jackson and the Hoosiers didn’t flinch, beating the Huskies comfortably. The Hoosiers don’t have a premier win on their schedule, but they are for real. This is a team that people are starting to believe has a shot at beating Ohio State in November. Even if the Hoosiers lose and finish the season with one loss, they have a real shot of getting into the Playoff field.

Notre Dame: Two things went well for Notre Dame on Saturday. First, beating a ranked Navy team 51-14 was another illustration of how much the Irish have grown since the embarrassing loss to Northern Illinois. Secondly, Texas A&M’s win over LSU strengthens the best bullet point on Notre Dame’s resume. Notre Dame will be favored in the rest of its games and have a clear path into the field.

Texas A&M: In the second half of Texas A&M‘s win over LSU, the Aggies looked like they belonged on the same field as anyone in college football. Switching the quarterback from Conner Weigman to Marcel Reed gave the Aggies the spark on offense to run the Tigers off the field. Though it’s unclear how Texas A&M will proceed with the quarterback position moving forward, the Aggies have a lot of pieces on both sides of the ball to be considered a very dangerous team.

First Four Out

Iowa State: The Cyclones are undefeated and are really, really good. They’re a great combination of Midwestern tough with explosive playmakers on offense. Iowa State does have to play Kansas State in the regular season finale, but it controls its own destiny in the Big 12 race. The Cyclones very well could be the No. 4 seed in these projections. The problem is it’s hard to predict two Big 12 teams will make the field, especially with a void of quality wins. We could very well be on track for a BYU-Iowa State game in the conference title game, which, basically, is a Playoff game.

Clemson: Clemson had a bye week this week and was in the field in these projections last weekend. What changed? Miami continued to take care of business and other teams with quality wins jumped ahead with better resumes. The good news for Clemson is that it controls its own destiny to get to the ACC Championship and beyond. The Tigers look a lot better than the team that was blown out by Georgia, but they haven’t faced an opponent that could push them in the same way since. Clemson will get its opportunity to prove it’s worthy.

Alabama: The Crimson Tide already have two losses, but they are far from out of the Playoff hunt. Alabama bounced back from a loss to Tennessee last weekend with a 34-0 drubbing of Missouri. In two weeks, Alabama goes into Death Valley to take on LSU. If Alabama wins that game, you’ll sit it reemerge in the discussion to crack the field.

Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh entered Thursday’s game against Syracuse undefeated. Many thought it would be a spot for the Panthers to suffer their first loss. Nope. Pittsburgh had three pick-sixes off Kyle McCord in the first half of a 41-13 victory over Syracuse. Next week, Pittsburgh travels to Dallas for a big-time matchup against SMU, a team who has also yet to lose a game in the ACC.

Next Four Out

Kansas State: Surviving and advancing in the Big 12 is difficult, but that’s what Kansas State keeps doing. Kansas State entered the fourth quarter against Kansas facing a four-point deficit, but shutout the Jayhawks and added two field goals in the game’s final minutes. It’s next three games come against Houston, Arizona State and Cincinnati before setting up what should be a big-time game against Iowa State.

SMU: SMU blocked a chip-shot field goal attempt from Duke at the end of regulation that would have won the Blue Devils the game, forcing overtime. The Mustangs scored first in overtime and Duke answered, but a Blue Devils’ two-point conversion attempt for the win failed. SMU survived with a 28-27 win, improving to 7-1 and 4-0 in ACC play. SMU doesn’t play Miami or Clemson in the regular season, so if it beats Pittsburgh at home next weekend, it has a real shot at making the ACC title game in its first year in the conference. 

LSU: For most of the first half of LSU’s 38-23 loss to Texas A&M on Saturday night, the Tigers looked like they were in prime position to win. But an array of mistakes from quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and the emergence of Reed for the Aggies was too much to overcome. The Tigers have only lost twice this season and have an opportunity in two weeks against Alabama to try and recover from the heartbreak.

Ole Miss: The Rebels were supposed to compete for a SEC Championship this year, but they have already suffered two losses in conference play. Though they probably feel good taking care of business against Oklahoma on Saturday, they cannot lose one more game if they want to keep any fantasy of making the Playoff alive. The problem? The Rebels still have to play Georgia.

Group of Five Watch

Boise State: The Broncos went on the road and beat UNLV in a pivotal Mountain West matchup on Friday night, powered by running back Ashton Jeanty, one of the best overall players in the sport. Boise State’s only blemish on its resume is a last-second loss to Oregon early in the season. Boise State is the clear G5 leader in the race for a Playoff spot.

Army: Navy’s 51-14 loss to Notre Dame leaves Army on an island as the only undefeated service academy left in college football. The Knights, though, just haven’t played the Irish yet. Their time is coming. Maybe Army will give Notre Dame a better fight than the Midshipmen, but if it loses, it’s important to remember that it’s a non-conference loss and doesn’t play into the American race. Navy, for that reason, is still alive in the Playoff hunt.

Tulane: The highest-ranked Group of Five champion makes it. That team could have two losses when all the dust settles on the season. The Wave have fallen into obscurity after losing back-to-back games to Kansas State and Oklahoma at the beginning of the year, but Tulane has won all four of its games in the American Conference this year. Assuming the G5 representative comes from either the Mountain West or American conference, Tulane is still alive in the Playoff hunt. A big game against Navy on Nov. 16 will tell us a lot.

UNLV: The Rebels did better than anyone else this season at trying to slow Jeanty, but they lost a hard-fought battle with Boise State on Friday night. That was UNLV‘s second loss of the year, but if it keeps winning and sets up a rematch with the Broncos in the Mountain West Championship Game, it could find itself playing for a Playoff spot down the line. Don’t forget that UNLV is a really good team.

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Ohio State
Winner faces No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl 

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Texas
Winner faces No. 4 BYU in the Fiesta Bowl 

No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Tennessee
Winner faces No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl 

No. 11 Texas A&M at No. 6 Penn State
Winner faces No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl