College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: ESPN breaks down who's in, who's out after Week 7

The latest College Football Playoff Bubble Watch is here from ESPN’s Heather Dinich. Below is a complete breakdown of the Power Four conferences, who’s in, who’s out and who else from the Independents and Group of Five are in and out.

Indiana made the biggest statement this weekend by beating Oregon, shaking up the Big Ten race and the rankings. Penn State fired James Franklin, giving us the latest coaching shakeup as well. USF and Texas Tech, going outside the big two leagues, made statements to further cement their playoff contention status.

So without further ado, let’s dive into the latest College Football Playoff Bubble Watch. We’ll start with a stacked SEC!

SEC

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
On the cusp: Tennessee
Work to do: Missouri, Texas, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina

Half of the College Football Playoff is SEC teams at this moment. Dinich has Texas A&M winning the conference as of right now and getting a bye.

Tennessee is right there and they have opportunities coming up. You have to circle Ole Miss-Georgia this weekend as well. Missouri, Texas and Vanderbilt are still in the hunt to get back in the good graces of the bracket.

Big Ten

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
On the cusp: USC
Work to do: Nebraska, Washington
Would be out: Iowa, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin

Only three Big Ten teams are in the College Football Playoff based on these projections right now. Dinich has Ohio State winning the conference and Indiana getting a bye as well, falling short to the Buckeyes for the conference crown.

Oregon is still in despite their first loss as well. USC is now in the thick of things where they could be the fourth team we talked about, although not many anticipated the fall of Penn State this year. Nebraska and Washington are in the next tier where they need work and maybe a little help.

ACC

Would be in: Miami
On the cusp: Georgia Tech
Work to do: Virginia
Would be out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

The ACC only gets one team in the College Football Playoff right now with Miami winning the league. The Hurricanes are the team to beat from here on out.

Georgia Tech is right there though and since the league is thin, it could be a two-team race for the top. Virginia might have some say as well, but need to do some work. They have no more ranked games this year and do not play Georgia Tech or Miami.

Big 12

Would be in: Texas Tech
On the cusp: BYU
Work to do: Cincinnati, Houston, Utah
Would be out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia

Texas Tech is the big time front runner to win the Big 12 and make the College Football Playoff for the first time. The Red Raiders are seemingly only being chased by BYU.

But others could make their move as Cincinnati, Houston and Utah are in the next tier. Last year’s winner Arizona State is a little further behind the pack.

Independent

Would be out: Notre Dame

Notre Dame still isn’t back in the College Football Playoff yet, but the Fighting Irish have won four games in a row. This weekend, they’ll host a ranked USC squad in what is now their biggest game of the season.

A win for Marcus Freeman and company will likely vault them up the polls and probably put them in as an at large bid as of now. Or at least, on the cusp of the CFP. The scenario remains the same, a 10-2 record is the likeliest path to the bracket.

Group of Five

Would be in: South Florida
Work to do: Memphis, Navy, Tulane, UNLV

USF dominated North Texas and practically eliminated them from College Football Playoff contention. Crazier things have happened, but the Bulls are in control right now.

Memphis, Navy and Tulane can all make a move though as they are still unbeaten in the AAC. UNLV is also 6-0 out west under Dan Mullen and boy wouldn’t that be something if he got to the CFP there rather than Florida?

Bracket

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Indiana
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)

First-round games

No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Alabama
No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Georgia
No. 9 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal games

No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Alabama winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 LSU/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Indiana
No. 10 Oklahoma/No. 7 Georgia winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State