ESPN ranks 1-loss teams by chance of making College Football Playoff

There are six unbeaten Power 5 teams fighting to reach the College Football Playoff, with several one-loss programs also capable of getting back in the mix.

The AP Poll currently has the unbeatens ranked — No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Michigan, No. 3 Ohio State, No. 4 Florida State, No. 5 Washington and No. 6 Oklahoma. All six of those teams have difficult games remaining in the regular season, with a potential conference championship game still to come, too.

That could open the door for a one-loss team to still reach the College Football Playoff. ESPN recently ranked the one-loss teams by best chance of making the CFP. Here’s a look at where ESPN currently has things:

1. Texas Longhorns

The path for Texas to reach the College Football Playoff is simple. If the Longhorns can win out, including a victory over Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, you would think that they will have a strong chance of making the College Football Playoff.

In that scenario, Texas would have a win over Alabama on the road, as well as a win over Oklahoma. It’s hard to imagine the Longhorns missing out on the CFP with that resume. With that said, even reaching the Big 12 Championship game isn’t a lock at this point, especially with Quinn Ewers set to miss some time.

2. Oregon Ducks

The recipe for Oregon to reach the playoff is the same as it is for Texas — win out and avenge an earlier loss. The Ducks went toe-to-toe with Pac-12 leader Washington on the road and would love to get a rematch.

The Ducks do still play ranked teams Utah, USC and Oregon State, but if they can win those three, the CFP isn’t off the table. Washington certainly looked vulnerable over the weekend against Arizona State.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama has been playing better and better since a rough stretch against Texas and USF in Week 2 and Week 3. The Crimson Tide earned an impressive, hard-fought win over Tennessee on Saturday, battling back from an early deficit.

If Texas wins out, the Longhorns are likely to get in over Alabama with their win in Tuscaloosa. But Alabama can very much get right back in the mix by winning out, including a victory over Georgia in the SEC Championship game.

4. Utah Utes

Utah continues to find a way to win games, even without starting quarterback Cam Rising. The senior hasn’t played all year and has been shut down for the season, but the Utes are still 6-1.

Utah hosts Oregon in another huge Pac-12 game this weekend. If the Utes can find a way to win on Saturday, they can quickly move up the list of one-loss teams still fighting to get into the College Football Playoff.

5. Oregon State Beavers

Oregon State is just outside of the top 10 right now but has a good chance to be in there heading into its final two games of the season. Over the next three weeks, the Beavers play Arizona, Colorado and Stanford.

Oregon State should be favored in all three games, before matchups with Washington and Oregon to close out the regular season. The Beavers have an incredibly difficult stretch to close the year, but if they win out, they’re still very much in the mix.

6. Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State dropped its first true test of the season on Saturday at Ohio State. The offense in particular struggled against the Buckeyes.

If Penn State can get more consistency on offense and somehow win out, the College Football Playoff isn’t off the table. The Nittany Lions still have a game remaining against Michigan, which would boost the resume. In order to have any chance to do that, quarterback Drew Allar is going to have to play better down the stretch.

7. Missouri Tigers

Missouri has quietly had a really good season and is 7-1 with four regular season games remaining. The upcoming games are tough, though, as the Tigers still have matchups with Georgia, Tennessee and Florida coming up.

If the Tigers can run the table they would certainly have an argument for the playoff. That would give Missouri wins over Georgia, Tennessee and either Alabama or LSU in the SEC Championship game, to go along with a nice out-of-conference victory over Kansas State. It’s unlikely but not impossible.

ESPN LISTS 1-LOSS FRINGE TEAMS

Ole Miss Rebels

ESPN also listed three one-loss fringe teams that are just behind the top seven, starting with the Rebels. Ole Miss is another team that has been flying under the radar after losing to Alabama early.

The Rebels are currently 6-1 after winning at Auburn over the weekend. Ole Miss has a huge game coming up on Nov. 1 at Georgia. If it can win that one, it would have an argument for the College Football Playoff. One potential issue is Ole Miss is unlikely to reach the SEC Championship Game due to Alabama holding the tiebreaker.

Louisville Cardinals

Louisville had a disappointing loss to Pitt its last time out, but it has otherwise been a magical first season for Jeff Brohm back at his alma mater. The Cardinals are currently 6-1 with a win over a really good Notre Dame team.

Louisville has a game against Duke coming up this weekend. With a win, the Cardinals will have a real shot to get to the ACC title game. The overall resume for Louisville at this point doesn’t say that this is a College Football Playoff team, but if the Cardinals can win out, including a win over Florida State in the ACC Championship, perhaps they can get in the conversation.

North Carolina Tar Heels

North Carolina looked like a true contender in the ACC, before a horrid performance against Virginia over the weekend. The Tar Heels suffered their first loss of the season against the Cavaliers, while Tony Elliott picked up a huge top-10 win on the road.

UNC could get back in the playoff picture if it wins out and beats Florida State in the ACC title game. But it could be hard for some to look past the home loss to UVA.

There’s still a lot of football to be played and a lot will change over the next several weeks. Don’t be surprised at all if a one-loss team, or perhaps even two, ends up in the College Football Playoff at the end of the season.