College Football Playoff: ESPN predicts 2024 12-team bracket, full bowl slate after Week 11

We now have a little less than a month left to go in the regular season as the race for the 12-team College Football Playoff is heating up. With Week 11 now in the rearview, ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach have updated their 2024 playoff predictions and bowl projections.

In the new expanded playoff format, the five highest ranked conference champions will receive automatic bids with the highest four ranked of those teams getting first-round byes. The remaining eight teams will play each other for the right to move on with the No. 5 through No. 8 teams all getting to host home games.

After that, the four winners from those games will advance to face the top four seeds in the quarterfinals. The quarterfinal and semifinals games will make up the traditional New Year’s Six bowl games, culminating with the national championship on Jan. 20.

You can view the full 2024 College Football Playoff projections from ESPN below.

College Football Playoff First Round Game #1

Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State

Both ESPN experts have the same matchup in the first round. The Broncos will head to the Horseshoe led by RB Ashton Jeanty trying to upset the Buckeyes. Right now, Ohio State is considered the Big Ten runner up.

Ohio State will be a heavy favorite to advance in the playoff. But man, don’t count out a special player with a really good football team.

College Football Playoff First Round Game #2

Bonagura: No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 11 Georgia at No. 6 Indiana

Different SEC-Big Ten matchups here. Bonagura is going with Ole Miss fresh off the Rebels’ victory over Georgia and they’ll travel to Penn State, which got back on track.

Schlabach likes the Bulldogs to still get to the dance. But how about this? They’ll go to Indiana. If you told somebody that at the beginning of the year, your fandom might’ve been revoked.

College Football Playoff First Round Game #3

Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Tennessee
Schlabach: No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Penn State

Bonagura’s matchup is wild: a rematch between Bama and the Vols. Tennessee plays host to try and get to the quarterfinals in this scenario.

Ole Miss is in Schlabach’s projections, but up to the No. 10 seed and playing Penn State. It’s hard to drop the Nittany Lions below a home game right now.

College Football Playoff First Round Game #4

Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Tennessee

Notre Dame is in for Bonagura, unlike Schlabach’s projections. The Fighting Irish will have to go to Bloomington to face one of the best stories in recent memory.

Alabama is back in for Schlabach and he also has a rematch with Tennessee. However, this is the No. 9 vs. 8 matchup, with the winner taking on No. 1 Oregon in the quarters.

CFP Quarterfinal at the Fiesta Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Miami
Schlabach: No. 11 Georgia vs. No. 3 BYU

Onto the next round as Bonagura has the Buckeyes taking on ACC champ Miami. The Hurricanes are still in that spot despite the upset loss to Georgia Tech this weekend.

Schlabach had Georgia sneaking in at No. 11, but beating Indiana in the first round to get this point. Good luck to BYU trying to hold off a hungry Bulldogs team.

CFP Quarterfinal at the Peach Bowl

Bonagura: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 BYU
Schlabach: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Miami

Bonagura has Penn State advancing and taking on the Cougars. So right now, both ESPN writers have BYU winning the Big 12 and snagging that third spot.

Schlabach also has an Ohio State vs. Miami matchup, except this one is in the Peach Bowl based on his projections. The branding for this game is elite.

CFP Quarterfinal at Rose Bowl

Bonagura: No. 8 Indiana vs. No. 1 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Oregon

Going to be tough to beat Oregon as they are the projected Big Ten champion and No. 1 seed. Based on Bonagura’s picks, it looks like Indiana won’t make the Big Ten Championship Game but get a date with the Ducks anyway.

Meanwhile, Schlabach has the Crimson Tide beating Tennessee in a rematch and getting a date with Oregon. But, can the Crimson Tide win two straight games as underdogs?

CFP Quarterfinal at the Sugar Bowl

Bonagura: No. 7 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Texas
Schlabach: No. 10 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Texas

Texas and Tennessee for an all-SEC matchup in the Sugar Bowl. Sounds about right! Texas will be the favorite though as the projected conference champion.

Another all-SEC matchup here for Schlabach’s projections. However, he has Ole Miss knocking off Penn State on the road to get here. This will be must-see TV if it happens.

CFP Semifinal at the Orange Bowl

Bonagura: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 2 Texas
Schlabach: No. 11 Georgia vs. No. 2 Texas

Bonagura thinks higher of Penn State, pushing them all the way to the semifinals at the Orange Bowl. The favorable matchup with BYU gives the Nittany Lions a path to take on the Longhorns.

And yes, there’s Schlabach putting No. 11 Georgia into the semifinals. They also get the favorable matchup with BYU (poor Cougars) and will get a rematch with Texas.

CFP Semifinal at the Cotton Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon

Both ESPN writers agree on the semifinals in the Cotton Bowl though. Based on projections, they get the same Big Ten matchup in this one.

This is going to be a Big Ten Championship Game rematch in this scenario, as well as the third matchup between both teams. Ohio State being a two loss team at the No. 5 seed, losing to Oregon twice? Man that’s rough. Buckeye fans, don’t scroll down to the title game.

CFP National Championship

Bonagura: No. 2 Texas vs. No. 1 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 2 Texas vs. No. 1 Oregon

Both writers have the same national championship between the top two teams in the country. Oregon gets win No. 3 over Ohio State all in the same year to get here.

Texas is one step further than last season and will get a crack at the title to fulfill the promise made by Steve Sarkisian. Got to imagine the Ducks will be favored here, but this would be quite the game at season’s end.

ESPN 2024 Bowl Season predictions after Week 11

Saturday, Dec. 14

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Arkansas State

Tuesday, Dec. 17

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. North Texas

Wednesday, Dec. 18

Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: South Florida vs. Arkansas State
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. South Alabama

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UCLA vs. UNLV
Schlabach: California vs. UNLV

Thursday, Dec. 19

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
7 p.m., ESPN2
Bonagura: Liberty vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Georgia Southern

Friday, Dec. 20

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Buffalo vs. UConn
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. Marshall

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. South Florida

Monday, Dec. 23

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana-Monroe vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Ohio vs. San José State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State

Tuesday, Dec. 24

Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Hawai’i

Thursday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Rutgers

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Baylor
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Texas Tech

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Northern Illinois vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. James Madison

Friday, Dec. 27

Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon or 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Michigan State
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Memphis

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
Noon or 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Navy
Schlabach: TCU vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
7 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Arkansas
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. UConn

DirecTV Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m.
Bonagura: SMU vs. Colorado
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Arizona State

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
10:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Missouri vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Missouri vs. UCLA

Saturday, Dec. 28

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Tulane vs. Syracuse
Schlabach: Tulane vs. Georgia Tech

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York City)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Wisconsin
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Wisconsin

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Colorado State vs. Washington
Schlabach: Colorado State vs. Texas State

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa State
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Iowa State

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Sam Houston
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. San José State

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boston College vs. Army
Schlabach: Duke vs. Navy

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
7:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Colorado vs. Washington State

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: James Madison vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Cincinnati

Monday, Dec. 30

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. LSU
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Vanderbilt

Tuesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Illinois vs. South Carolina

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Louisville vs. California
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Washington

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Georgia
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Texas A&M

Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Arkansas

Thursday, Jan. 2

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: SMU vs. LSU

Friday, Jan. 3

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Boston College

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Rutgers
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Minnesota

Saturday, Jan. 4

Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11 a.m., ESPN2
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Sam Houston vs. Bowling Green