College Football Playoff: ESPN predicts 2024 12-team bracket, full bowl slate after Week 12

With the College Football Playoff just over the horizon, teams are competing harder than ever to cement their spot in the 12-team postseason playoff. On Sunday, ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach updated their 2024 playoff predictions and bowl projections.

In the new expanded playoff format, the five highest ranked conference champions will receive automatic bids with the highest four ranked of those teams getting first-round byes. The remaining eight teams will play each other for the right to move on with the No. 5 through No. 8 teams all getting to host home games.

After that, the four winners from those games will advance to face the top four seeds in the quarterfinals. The quarterfinal and semifinals games will make up the traditional New Year’s Six bowl games, culminating with the national championship on Jan. 20.

You can view the full 2024 College Football Playoff projections from ESPN below.

College Football Playoff First Round Game #1

Bonagura: No. 12 BYU at No. 5 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State

Bonagura changed his prediction for Game No. 1 this week, switching replacing Boise State for BYU. However, Schlabach stuck with his Week 11 prediction. Bonagura’s move isn’t unwarranted.

On Saturday, the Cougars fell 17-13 to the Kansas Jayhawks, who have been underwhelming in Big 12 play this season. While the loss is a significant stain on BYU’s record, it’s still only one loss. Bonagura seems to believe the Cougars can still squeak into the CFP.

College Football Playoff First Round Game #2

Bonagura: No. 11 Georgia at No. 6 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Indiana

Both Bonagura and Schlabach expect a Big Ten team to be the No. 6 seed in the playoff but they don’t agree which one. Bonagura is rolling with the Nittany Lions, whose sole loss this season came against a talent Ohio State roster.

Meanwhile, Schlabach is sticking with Indiana, which hasn’t lost a game yet this season. Bonagura may be hedging his bets for what’s to come, as the Hoosiers will face off against No. 2 Ohio State this weekend.

College Football Playoff First Round Game #3

Bonagura: No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 10 Georgia at No. 7 Penn State

The two ESPN experts have two different SEC teams projected to be the No. 10 seed. In fairness, the SEC has been as unpredictable as ever before this season. Georgia added a pivotal win to their résumé this weekend with a triumph over Tennessee.

Alas, Ole Miss has the head-to-head victory over Georgia. Two-loss SEC teams will be forced to wait it out as the College Football Playoff selection committee makes difficult decisions in December. For now, all they can do is focus on the next opponent in front of them.

College Football Playoff First Round Game #4

Bonagura: No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Notre Dame
Schlabach: No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 8 Alabama

Schlabach holds Alabama with slightly higher regard than Bonagura but both analysts foresee the Crimson Tide in the CFP. Who can blame them?

The Crimson Tide boast wins over high-profile opponents such as Georgia, LSU and Missouri this season. Moreover, Alabama will have a chance to make fantastic final impressions on the selection committee in its final two games of the season against subpar Oklahoma and Auburn squads.

CFP Quarterfinal at the Fiesta Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Boise State
Schlabach: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Colorado

Bonagura and Schlabach both expect Ohio State to win its first-round matchup. However, the real story here is Schlabach’s prediction for Colorado to be the Big 12 champion and representative in the Top 4.

Colorado finished last season with a 4-8 record and wasn’t even bowl eligible. To choose the Buffaloes to win the Big 12 is a massive step. Nonetheless, they haven’t given analysts any reason not to buy in. Colorado is 8-2 and still has time to usurp BYU for the No. 1 spot in the Big 12 standings.

CFP Quarterfinal at the Peach Bowl

Bonagura: No. 11 Georgia vs. No. 3 Miami
Schlabach: No. 11 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Miami

Whether it’s against Georgia or Notre Dame, the two ESPN experts believe Miami will be the No. 3 seed in the Peach Bowl. Miami had a bye this week to recompose itself following its Week 11 loss to Georgia Tech. The loss was the Hurricanes’ first of the season.

Spoiler alert, neither Bonagura nor Schlabach picked Miami to win the Peach Bowl, either. The Hurricanes have struggled with consistency this season, often escaping with nail-biting wins that should’ve been comfortable victories.

CFP Quarterfinal at Rose Bowl

Bonagura: No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 1 Oregon

In a rare occasion, Bonagura and Schlabach predicted the matchup in the Rose Bowl despite their discrepancy on Alabama’s seeding. The showdown would be appointment television, with Kalen DeBoer and Dan Lanning rematching after several all-time classics as Pac-12 foes.

Although DeBoer got the best of Lanning in the past, the ESPN experts don’t expect history to repeat itself this time around. Bonagura and Schlabach both predict Oregon to advance past the Crimson Tide.

CFP Quarterfinal at the Sugar Bowl

Bonagura: No. 7 Indiana vs. No. 2 Texas
Schlabach: No. 10 Georgia vs. No. 2 Texas

Schlabach expects to see a rematch between Georgia and Texas in the CFP quarterfinals. If he’s correct, history isn’t on the Longhorns’ side. Georgia dominated Texas 30-15 in the two programs’ first meeting this season on Oct. 19.

Even scarier for Texas, Georgia’s offense didn’t play particularly well. Quarterback Carson Beck threw three interceptions in the outing. Nonetheless, it’s worth noting that Texas didn’t have its best day, either, committing a season-high four turnovers in the loss.

CFP Semifinal at the Orange Bowl

Bonagura: No. 11 Georgia vs. No. 7 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 10 Georgia vs. No. 11 Notre Dame

They may not agree on who will face off against Georgia in the orange bowl, but both analysts expect it to be a team outside of the Top 4. If Notre Dame earns the matchup, it’ll be intriguing to see how it fares.

Texas A&M is the only team that is currently ranked that Notre Dame defeated earlier this season. The Fighting Irish downed the Aggies 23-13. However, they’ve shown concerning flashes at times against Northern Illinois and Louisville. Schlabach doesn’t expect them to advance to the national championship.

CFP Semifinal at the Cotton Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon

Neither Bonagura nor Schlabach backed down from their projection last week that Ohio State and Oregon will rematch in the Cotton Bowl. If they do, fans are in for fireworks.

When the Buckeyes and Ducks squared off earlier this season, Oregon emerged with a 32-31 triumph. The game was a heated contest, with Ducks head coach Dan Lanning making numerous risky calls. An Ohio State win over Oregon in the Cotton Bowl would be pivotal for Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day‘s legacy.

CFP National Championship

Bonagura: No. 7 Indiana vs. No. 1 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 10 Georgia vs. No. 1 Oregon

Neither writer named a national champion but Oregon was the only team in the title game for both of them. Of course, that similarity doesn’t necessarily mean they both expect the Ducks to soar to a national title.

In fact, they both admit that the only certainty this season is uncertainty. Every time an “expert” begins to believe they have the pecking order of the college football landscape nailed down, another upset unfolds. There’s no reason to believe the CFP will be any different.

ESPN 2024 Bowl Season predictions after Week 12

Saturday, Dec. 14

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Arkansas State

Tuesday, Dec. 17

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. North Texas

Wednesday, Dec. 18

Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: South Florida vs. Arkansas State
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Memphis

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: California vs. UNLV
Schlabach: California vs. Colorado State

Thursday, Dec. 19

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
7 p.m., ESPN2
Bonagura: Sam Houston vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Sam Houston vs. Georgia Southern

Friday, Dec. 20

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Western Michigan vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. Marshall

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Boston College vs. South Florida

Monday, Dec. 23

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Northern Illinois vs. UConn
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. San José State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. South Alabama

Tuesday, Dec. 24

Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico

Thursday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Michigan State
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. UConn

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Rutgers vs. TCU
Schlabach: Rutgers vs. Kansas State

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Eastern Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. James Madison

Friday, Dec. 27

Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon or 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Florida
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Arkansas

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
Noon or 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Navy
Schlabach: TCU vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
7 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Arkansas
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Vanderbilt

DirecTV Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m.
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Colorado
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona State

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
10:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Missouri vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Missouri vs. Washington

Saturday, Dec. 28

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Tulane vs. Georgia Tech
Schlabach: Tulane vs. Georgia Tech

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Wisconsin
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Wisconsin

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Colorado State vs. UTSA
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Texas State

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: SMU vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Iowa State

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. San José State

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boston College vs. Army
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Navy

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
7:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Washington State
Schlabach: BYU vs. Washington State

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: West Virginia vs. Washington
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. Louisiana

Monday, Dec. 30

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. LSU
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Florida

Tuesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Iowa vs. South Carolina

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Louisville vs. USC
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. USC

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Texas A&M

Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Baylor vs. LSU

Thursday, Jan. 2

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Tennessee

Friday, Jan. 3

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. NC State

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Duke vs. Minnesota

Saturday, Jan. 4

Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11 a.m., ESPN2
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Bowling Green

All times are ET.