College Football Playoff: ESPN predicts 2024 12-team bracket, full bowl slate after Week 4
With a quarter of the season now complete, ESPN has released their latest update to their projections for the College Football Playoff.
Based on the playoff field, the Southeastern Conference would lead the way with five berths, including all four at-larges, who each would be hosting, advancing to the quarterfinals. With that, this would allow for the “fever dream of a potential semifinal round with four of its teams alive” for the SEC.
The Big Ten had various combinations of four teams in it depending on the expert while there was a pair from the ACC but a lone one for each out of the Big 12.
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Here’s how Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach set up the playoff based on a fourth of the year’s results in college football:
College Football Playoff: First-round game #1
Bonagura: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 12 UNLV at No. 5 Georgia
After agreeing on the highest-ranked team from the Group of Five last week in Memphis, Bonagura and Schlabach disagree again at No. 12 following the Tigers’ loss to Navy. One has James Madison out of the Sun Belt coming off a 70-point outing in a win at North Carolina while the other has UNLV out of the Mountain West after an undefeated start with two of the wins coming over the Big 12 in Houston and Kansas.
Either way, that team would still have to go between the hedges to play against the Georgia Bulldogs at No. 5.
College Football Playoff: First-round game #2
Bonagura: No. 11 Michigan at No. 6 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 11 Clemson at No. 6 Tennessee
After agreeing on six and seven in the last update, the writers are now split between Alabama and Tennessee.
With that, Bonagura has a rematch from last year’s playoff from the Rose Bowl as Michigan would go to Tuscaloosa. As for Schlabach, he has a rematch from the Orange Bowl two seasons ago with a game against Clemson on Rocky Top.
College Football Playoff: First-round game #3
Bonagura: No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Tennessee
Schlabach: No. 10 Oregon at No. 7 Alabama
Again, the pair disagree on the Volunteers and Crimson Tide with this other opening-round game reflecting that
This is where Bonagura has Tennessee with Penn State having to come down to Knoxville. In turn, Dan Lanning would return to T-Town for this one as Oregon would face off with ‘Bama.
College Football Playoff: First-round game #4
Bonagura: No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Ole Miss
Ole Miss has been impressive through the first four games of their season. Although untested yet, that has them as the fifth and final team out of the SEC as they’d host in The ‘Sip.
Facing the Rebels would be the same pair of teams from the previous projection. One has the Ducks while the other has Nittany Lions being who has to go to Oxford.
CFP Quarterfinal at the Fiesta Bowl
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Utah
Schlabach: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Utah
This is the same matchup as last week with the No. 5 Bulldogs playing against the No. 4 Utes in the Fiesta Bowl in Glendale.
This comes after Utah further cemented themselves as the top team out of the Big 12. They look set as the top team in their new conference after defeating Oklahoma State and with Kansas State losing this past weekend as well.
CFP Quarterfinal at the Peach Bowl
Bonagura: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 3 Miami
Schlabach: No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 3 Miami
With that differentiation between Alabama and Tennessee, Bonagura and Schlabach have their respective sixth seeds moving on to play Miami in Atlanta.
The ‘Canes also look like a strong favorite in their league to this point based on the rest of the ACC.
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game
Bonagura: No. 7 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Alabama and Tennessee, their respective seventh seeds here as said again, would be advancing here to this quarterfinal against Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.
The Buckeyes, although playing little to any competition through three games, are set in the lead of the Big Ten. That would have them starting their playoff run in Pasadena against an opponent out of the SEC.
CFP Quarterfinal at the Sugar Bowl
Bonagura: No. 8 Ole Miss vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 8 Ole Miss vs. No. 1 Texas
The Sugar Bowl will now be SEC vs. SEC in a game that we won’t see during the regular season. It would also likely still be their first meeting of the year as an eighth seed wouldn’t suggest that they met in the SEC Championship.
In the update, Bonagura and Schlabach have Ole Miss meeting Texas, who remains as the top seed after another victory by a wide margin, in New Orleans.
CFP Semifinal at the Orange Bowl
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
The first semifinal with the Orange Bowl remained the same for each expert with it again being a meeting within the Southeastern Conference.
No. 1 Texas would play No. 5 Georgia in Miami for a spot in the national title game. It would also look to be the third meeting between the Longhorns and ‘Dawgs after their scheduled one in the regular season and their currently expected or projected one in the SEC Championship.
CFP Semifinal at the Cotton Bowl Classic
Bonagura: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Ohio State
This disagreement between Alabama and Tennessee at No. 6 comes into play again for the Cotton Bowl.
Still, whether in their quarterfinal or this semifinal, Ohio State would once again be playing one of these two for the right to play for the national title.
CFP National Championship
Bonagura: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Georgia
As for the title game projections, neither one changed for Bonagura and Schlabach.
One expert still has Texas meeting Alabama for a reunion in Atlanta after they played in each of the last two regular season. The other kept Ohio State meeting Georgia there in a rematch of a classic in the Peach Bowl two playoffs ago.
ESPN 2024 Bowl Season predictions after Week 4
Celebration Bowl
Bonagura: Grambling vs. NC Central
Schlabach: Florida A&M vs. NC Central
Camellia Bowl
Bonagura: South Alabama vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Coastal Carolina
Frisco Bowl
Bonagura: Ohio vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Georgia State vs. North Texas
Boca Raton Bowl
Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. South Florida
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Navy
L.A. Bowl
Bonagura: Washington vs. Boise State
Schlabach: California vs. Boise State
New Orleans Bowl
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Liberty vs. James Madison
Cure Bowl
Bonagura: Louisiana vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. UTSA
Gasparilla Bowl
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Virginia vs. South Alabama
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. UConn
Schlabach: Marshall vs. Tulane
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Bonagura: Northern Illinois vs. San José State
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State
Hawaii Bowl
Bonagura: Liberty vs. Colorado State
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Colorado State
Detroit Bowl
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Michigan State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Michigan State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Texas Tech
68 Ventures Bowl
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Oregon State vs. Georgia Southern
Birmingham Bowl
Bonagura: Kentucky vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Auburn
Armed Forces Bowl
Bonagura: Colorado vs. Army
Schlabach: Arizona State vs. Army
Liberty Bowl
Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Arkansas
Schlabach: UCF vs. Arkansas
Holiday Bowl
Bonagura: Clemson vs. USC
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona
Las Vegas Bowl
Bonagura: South Carolina vs. California
Schlabach: South Carolina vs. Washington State
Fenway Bowl
Bonagura: Memphis vs. Duke
Schlabach: Memphis vs. Syracuse
Pinstripe Bowl
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Rutgers
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Nebraska
New Mexico Bowl
Bonagura: UNLV vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Nevada vs. Texas State
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Bonagura: Louisville vs. UCF
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Iowa State
Arizona Bowl
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. San José State
Military Bowl
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Navy
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. USF
Alamo Bowl
Bonagura: Washington State vs. BYU
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. USC
Independence Bowl
Bonagura: TCU vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Colorado vs. Indiana
Music City Bowl
Bonagura: Iowa vs. LSU
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Kentucky
ReliaQuest Bowl
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Missouri
Sun Bowl
Bonagura: Boston College vs. Arizona
Schlabach: Duke vs. Washington
Citrus Bowl
Bonagura: Indiana vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Michigan vs. LSU
Texas Bowl
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Oklahoma
Gator Bowl
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Texas A&M
First Responder Bowl
Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. North Texas
Schlabach: BYU vs. Georgia Tech
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bonagura: SMU vs. Nebraska
Schlabach: Boston College vs. Rutgers
Bahamas Bowl
Bonagura: Sam Houston vs. Buffalo
Schlabach: Sam Houston vs. Eastern Michigan