College Football Playoff: ESPN predicts 2024 12-team bracket, full bowl slate after Week 9

We now have only a little more than a month left to go in the regular season as the race for the 12-team College Football Playoff is heating up. With Week 9 now in the rearview, ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach have updated their 2024 playoff predictions and bowl projections.

In the new expanded playoff format, the five highest ranked conference champions will receive automatic bids with the highest four ranked of those teams getting first-round byes. The remaining eight teams will play each other for the right to move on with the No. 5 through No. 8 teams all getting to host home games.

After that, the four winners from those games will advance to face the top four seeds in the quarterfinals. The quarterfinal and semifinals games will make up the traditional New Year’s Six bowl games, culminating with the national championship on Jan. 20.

You can view the full 2024 College Football Playoff projections from ESPN below.

College Football Playoff: First-round game #1

Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Penn State

Both Bonagura and Schlabach like Boise State to make it in as the No. 12 seed and represent the Group of 5. The Broncos are of course led by running back Ashton Jeanty, who has run for 1,376 yards and 18 touchdowns this season.

The two ESPN experts disagree on who the Broncos will be playing, however. Bonagura likes Indiana, which is off to an 8-0 start for the first time in 57 years, while Schlabach predicts Penn State in the No. 5 spot.

College Football Playoff: First-round game #2

Bonagura: No. 11 Iowa State at No. 6 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Ohio State

Bonagura doesn’t have the Nittany Lions much lower than his colleague as he predicts them as the No. 6 seed in a matchup against Iowa State. The Cyclones are one of only two remaining unbeaten teams in the Big 12 along with BYU as the two teams are likely to compete for the conference championship in December.

Schlabach predicts Ohio State in the No. 6 spot in a matchup against Notre Dame, which moves into the CFP field for both experts after not being listed last week. The Buckeyes rank as a top five scoring defense and also have a number of weapons offensively that make them a threat for the title.

College Football Playoff: First-round game #3

Bonagura: No. 10 Texas A&M at No. 7 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 10 Texas A&M at No. 7 Texas

Both experts have Texas A&M in the No. 10 spot here but Schlabach has the most interesting matchup as he predicts them to play rival Texas. The Aggies and Longhorns will also meet in the regular season for the first time in more than a decade.

Bonagura has Texas a little bit lower than his colleague as he gives Ohio State the No. 7 spot here. Texas A&M is currently in first place in the SEC standings, but it seems neither analyst expects the Aggies to win the conference championship.

College Football Playoff: First-round game #4

Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Texas
Schlabach: No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Clemson

Schlabach is the only one of the two analysts to put Clemson in his College Football Playoff field, having them up against Indiana. The Tigers are right in the thick of the race for the ACC title and have won six straight games since losing to Georgia in the season opener.

Bonagura has a different matchup entirely as he predicts Notre Dame as the No. 9 seed against Texas, which he has one spot lower than Schlabach. The winner of this game would move on to face the No. 1 seed in the quarterfinals.

CFP Quarterfinal at the Fiesta Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 4 BYU
Schlabach: No. 5 Penn State vs. No. 4 BYU

Both Bonagura and Schlabach expect their No. 5 seeds to take care of business against Boise State and run into No. 4 seed BYU in the quarterfinals. The Cougars are the projected Big 12 champs as they’re off to an 8-0 start in what it only their second season in the conference.

BYU ranks among the top three teams in the Big 12 in scoring defense and will be a difficult out for either of these Big Ten opponents.

CFP Quarterfinal at the Peach Bowl

Bonagura: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Miami
Schlabach: No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Miami

Both analysts have Miami in their No. 3 spot as the projected ACC Champion. However, they differ on the teams that they believe they will play.

They both have their No. 6 seeds making it out of the first round, with either Penn State or Ohio State being the team to take on the Hurricanes. That would pit an elite defense against one of the top offensive attacks in the country led by quarterback Cam Ward.

CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game

Bonagura: No. 8 Texas vs. No. 1 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 1 Oregon

Oregon comes in as the undisputed No. 1 team and would get a first-round bye as it awaits its opponent in the Rose Bowl. The Ducks will face either Texas or Clemson as both Bonagura and Schlabach have their eight seeds winning to advance to this game.

Quarterback Dillon Gabriel has been heating up in recent weeks after taking some time to settle in as a transfer from Oklahoma. He should be a Heisman candidate come season’s end and has a shot to lead the Ducks deep in the playoff.

CFP Quarterfinal at the Sugar Bowl

Bonagura: No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 10 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Georgia

Not only did Schlabach predict Texas A&M in as the No. 7 seed against Texas, but he also has them beating the Longhorns to face Georgia in the quarterfinals. Both ESPN analysts have the Bulldogs winning the SEC to earn the No. 2 seed in the College Football Playoff.

Georgia won back-to-back titles in 2021 and 2022 before failing to make the CFP last season. However, behind quarterback Carson Beck as well as a defense that is once again among the best in the country, coach Kirby Smart figures to have a shot to add to his total this year.

CFP Semifinal at the Orange Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 1 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Penn State vs. No. 1 Oregon

Both analysts like their respective No. 5 seeds to take care of business against BYU and face Oregon in the semifinals. That would set up an all-Big Ten matchup in the Orange Bowl with a trip to the national championship on the line.

The Ducks don’t play either Penn State or Indiana in the regular season, but this could be a potential rematch of the Big Ten Championship.

CFP Semifinal at the Cotton Bowl Classic

Bonagura: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 Georgia

Bonagura and Schlabach have the same matchup here and it should be a tough battle to see which team makes it to the national championship. The Hurricanes high-powered offense would be tested in this potential Cotton Bowl game against a defense that will be unlike any other they’ve faced.

The same could be said for Miami’s offense against Georgia’s defense, which would make this an exciting game if it ultimately does come to be. The Hurricanes haven’t played for a national title since 2002, and unfortunately the two ESPN experts are both taking the Bulldogs here.

CFP National Championship

Bonagura: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 1 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 1 Oregon

Again, the two experts are aligned on the two teams they believe will compete for the title, pitting Oregon against Georgia. The Ducks have never won a national championship but are certainly playing well enough to make this the year they break through.

There’s still a lot of football left to be played, but right now, these two teams have proven themselves the frontrunners in the eyes of ESPN. We’ll see how that prediction ends up once the end of January rolls around.

ESPN 2024 Bowl Season predictions after Week 9

Saturday, Dec. 14

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Bonagura: Jackson State vs. NC Central
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. NC Central

Camellia Bowl
Bonagura: UConn vs. NC State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Louisiana-Monroe

Tuesday, Dec. 17

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Bonagura: Texas State vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Arkansas State vs. North Texas

Wednesday, Dec. 18

Boca Raton Bowl
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. Tulane

LA Bowl
Bonagura: USC vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Washington vs. UNLV

Thursday, Dec. 19

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Bonagura: Sam Houston vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Georgia Southern

Friday, Dec. 20

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. Marshall

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Bonagura: Boston College vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Florida

Monday, Dec. 23

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Bonagura: South Florida vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: South Florida vs. Old Dominion

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Bonagura: Ohio vs. San José State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State

Tuesday, Dec. 24

Hawai’i Bowl
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Colorado State
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Colorado State

Thursday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Michigan State
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Michigan State

Rate Bowl
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Baylor
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Cincinnati

68 Ventures Bowl
Bonagura: Northern Illinois vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. James Madison

Friday, Dec. 27

Birmingham Bowl
Bonagura: Arkansas vs. Rutgers
Schlabach: South Carolina vs. Boston College

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Navy
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Vanderbilt

DirecTV Holiday Bowl
Bonagura: SMU vs. Colorado
Schlabach: SMU vs. Colorado

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Bonagura: Vanderbilt vs. California
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Arizona State

Saturday, Dec. 28

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Bonagura: Tulane vs. Georgia Tech
Schlabach: Memphis vs. NC State

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Wisconsin

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Arkansas State
Schlabach: San Diego State vs. South Alabama

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. TCU
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa State

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Bonagura: Western Michigan vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. San José State

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Army
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Navy

Valero Alamo Bowl
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Washington State

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Bonagura: Florida vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Baylor

Monday, Dec. 30

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. LSU
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Missouri

Tuesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Ole Miss

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Duke vs. USC

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Illinois vs. LSU

Texas Bowl
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: TCU vs. Arkansas

Thursday, Jan. 2

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee

Friday, Jan. 3

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Bonagura: West Virginia vs. Memphis
Schlabach: UConn vs. Northern Illinois

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bonagura: Duke vs. Nebraska
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Minnesota

Saturday, Jan. 4

Bahamas Bowl
Bonagura: Liberty vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Sam Houston vs. Bowling Green