College Football Playoff: ESPN predicts 2024 12-team bracket, full bowl slate after Week 1

Week 1 is in the books, and the race for the College Football Playoff is already taking some new turns. There were some big games on tamp to open the 2024 season, and ESPN’s Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura have updated their predictions for the 12-team CFP bracket and the full slate of bowl games.

The AP Top 25 took on a new look after a wild week of action, including a second loss for Florida State. FSU was squarely in the CFP picture in ESPN’s preseason bowl game projections, but is now on the outside looking in after this week’s update.

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The top teams remained the same, though. Georgia and Ohio State came in as likely contenders for the national championship after Week 1, and some new faces emerged in the College Football Playoff picture.

That includes Kansas, which came in as a No. 11 seed in Mark Schlabach’s projections. The Jayhawks got a resounding 48-3 win over Lindenwood to start the season as they look to make a run in the new-look Big 12.

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The spring to the College Football Playoff is officially on with the season underway. Here are ESPN’s full predictions for the entire slate of bowl games, from the Celebration Bowl through the national championship.

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College Football Playoff: First-round game #1

Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State vs. No. 5 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 12 Memphis vs. No. 5 Alabama

Alabama lifted the curtain on the 2024 season with a 63-0 victory over Western Kentucky to kick off the Kalen DeBoer era. Of the Group of Five representatives in ESPN’s bowl game projections, Boise State had one of the most notable days as Asthon Jeanty ran for six touchdowns after the program started his Heisman Trophy campaign before the opener.

College Football Playoff: First-round game #2

Bonagura: No. 11 Arizona vs. No. 6 Texas
Schlabach: No. 11 Kansas vs. No. 6 Texas

Texas started its 2024 season hot with a 52-0 win over Colorado State, which saw both Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning get some run. In ESPN’s projections, the Longhorns go up against Big 12 opponents as Schlabach projected Kansas to get the No. 11 seed and Bonagura predicted Arizona to do so.

College Football Playoff: First-round game #3

Bonagura: No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Notre Dame
Schlabach: No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Notre Dame

Notre Dame had one of the biggest wins of Week 1, going into Texas A&M and defeating the Aggies in primetime. That set the Fighting Irish up for a path to the College Football Playoff, and both ESPN analysts predict Ole Miss to take on the Fighting Irish.

College Football Playoff: First-round game #4

Bonagura: No. 9 Michigan at No. 8 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Penn State

Oregon had an interesting Week 1 game against Idaho, which saw the Ducks drop in the AP poll. However, the Ducks still look primed for a run in the new Big Ten, and ESPN has conference rivals Michigan and Penn State as their opponents in the CFP projections.

CFP Quarterfinal at the Fiesta Bowl

Bonagura: No. 6 Texas vs. No. 3 Utah
Schlabach: No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 4 Utah

Utah started off its Big 12 run in a weeknight matchup against Southern Utah, and it was all Utes en route to the 49-0 victory. Their hopes of a Big 12 run look strong, which could set them up for matchups against Texas or Alabama in ESPN’s projections.

CFP Quarterfinal at the Peach Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 4 Miami
Schlabach: No. 6 Texas vs. No. 3 Miami

Another big-time Week 1 victory came in Gainesville where a revamped Miami cruised past Florida in their rivalry matchup. Both Schlabach and Bonagura project the Hurricanes to win the ACC, although their opponents differe in their College Football Playoff predictions.

CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game

Bonagura: No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 10 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Ohio State

It didn’t take long for Ohio State’s playmakers to make their presences felt in the opener against Akron – most notably Jeremiah Smith, who had 92 yards and two touchdowns to lead the charge. The Buckeyes will keep trying to live up to the hype, and both ESPN analysts have them as the No. 2 seed in the College Football Playoff field.

CFP Quarterfinal at the Sugar Bowl

Bonagura: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 9 Oregon vs. No. 1 Georgia

Both Schlabach and Bonagura predict a teacher-against-student matchup in the Sugar Bowl. They have Dan Lanning squaring off against his former boss, Kirby Smart, and No. 1-seeded Georgia with a spot in the semifinals on the line.

CFP Semifinal at the Orange Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 1 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 1 Georgia

We’ve seen a few notable Georgia vs. Alabama games over the last three years. But ESPN projects a new one with Kalen DeBoer picking up where Nick Saban left off and taking on Georgia for a spot in the national championship game.

CFP Semifinal at the Cotton Bowl Classic

Bonagura: No. 6 Texas vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3. Miami vs. No. 2 Ohio State

Ohio State makes the College Football Playoff semifinal in ESPN’s projections. However, the Buckeyes’ opponent differs with No. 6 seed Texas and No. 3 seed Miami making the cut – although the result is the same in both games.

CFP National Championship

Bonagura: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Georgia

Once again, ESPN’s analysts are in agreement on an Ohio State-Georgia national championship game. This time, though, the Bulldogs were the consensus No. 1 team after holding onto the top spot in the AP poll on Tuesday.

ESPN 2024 Bowl Season predictions after Week 1

Celebration Bowl

Bonagura: Florida A&M vs. NC Central
Schlabach: Alabama State vs. NC Central

Camellia Bowl

Bonagura: UAB vs. Wake Forest
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Coastal Carolina

Frisco Bowl

Bonagura: Troy vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. North Texas

Boca Raton Bowl

Bonagura: Tulsa vs. Appalachian State
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. East Carolina

L.A. Bowl

Bonagura: UNLV vs. Colorado
Schlabach: Cal vs. Boise State

New Orleans Bowl

Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Appalachian State

Cure Bowl

Bonagura: Arkansas State vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Western Kentucky

Gasparilla Bowl

Bonagura: West Virginia vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Boston College vs. James Madison

Myrtle Beach Bowl

Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Marshall vs. Middle Tennessee

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Bonagura: Toledo vs. San Jose State
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State

Hawaii Bowl

Bonagura: Liberty vs. Air Force
Schlabach: Sam Houston State vs. Colorado State

Detroit Bowl

Bonagura: Central Michigan vs. Illinois
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Maryland

Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Bonagura: Indiana vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Iowa State

68 Ventures Bowl

Bonagura: USF vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: Troy vs. Wyoming

Birmingham Bowl

Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Army

Armed Forces Bowl

Bonagura: James Madison vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. UTSA

Liberty Bowl

Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: UCF vs. Kentucky

Holiday Bowl

Bonagura: Clemson vs. Washington
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Arizona

Las Vegas Bowl

Bonagura: Missouri vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Washington

Fenway Bowl

Bonagura: Memphis vs. SMU
Schlabach: Tulane vs. Syracuse

Pinstripe Bowl

Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Rutgers
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Wisconsin

New Mexico Bowl

Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Air Force vs. Texas State

Pop-Tarts Bowl

Bonagura: Louisville vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Oklahoma State

Arizona Bowl

Bonagura: Northern Illinois vs. Nevada
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. UNLV

Military Bowl

Bonagura: NC State vs. Tulane
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. USF

Alamo Bowl

Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. USC
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. USC

Independence Bowl

Bonagura: Baylor vs. Cal
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Oregon State

Music City Bowl

Bonagura: Nebraska vs. LSU
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Texas A&M

ReliaQuest Bowl

Bonagura: Iowa vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Missouri

Sun Bowl

Bonagura: Florida State vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: SMU vs. Washington State

Citrus Bowl

Bonagura: Penn State vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Tennessee

Texas Bowl

Bonagura: Kansas vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. LSU

Gator Bowl

Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: NC State vs. Oklahoma

First Responder Bowl

Bonagura: TCU vs. North Texas
Schlabach: TCU vs. Nevada

Duke’s Mayo Bowl

Bonagura: Boston College vs. Wisconsin
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Rutgers

Bahamas Bowl

Bonagura: Sam Houston State vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Miami (Ohio)