College Football Playoff: ESPN ranks teams with best chance to make the CFP after Week 13

Just one regular season game plus conference championships separate us from the College Football Playoff bracket being revealed. Plenty of teams are still in contention to make the 12-team field, both via an automatic qualifier spot and being an at-large team.

After Week 13, ESPN has ranked teams with the best chance of winding up in the CFP. Eleven have at least a 60% chance, all but one of which play in power conferences. The likely Group of Five representative is not too surprising, either.

An exciting couple of weeks are upon us before an official bracket is in front of us. Until then, you can check out who has the best odds of getting in according to ESPN.

Oregon Ducks – 99.9%

ESPN cannot place a team at 100% until they are in the field but Oregon is as close as possible. Already 11-0 and a spot in the Big Ten Championship game, the Ducks’ resume is viewed as good enough.

Two straight losses could occur, losing to Washington and whoever they face in Indianapolis. Even so, ESPN views Oregon getting in as a virtual lock.

Ohio State Buckeyes – 99.9%

Ohio State finds itself in a similar position to its lone loss of the year. Beating Indiana gave them another high-profile win in the committee’s eyes, all but locking down their place in the CFP.

Ryan Day will be the first to tell you beating Michigan is the top priority. But playing for seeding by winning the Big Ten and getting a bye is right up there.

Penn State Nittany Lions – 98.7%

A third straight Big Ten team, this one will be watching from home on Dec. 7. Penn State could finish the year 11-1 but fall short of making the conference championship game. ESPN’s projection places them as one of the top at-large teams.

Nobody will be happier for the 12-team format than Penn State. Consistently falling short of getting in when just four teams competed, this is James Franklin‘s chance to compete for a national championship.

Texas Longhorns – 98.1%

Texas is the SEC’s lone team with only one loss. Everyone else has stumbled multiple times but Steve Sarkisian has guided his team through the year better than anyone in the conference thus far.

Of the teams ranked inside the top 10, Texas undoubtedly has the toughest test ahead. A rivalry renewal against Texas A&M is on deck Saturday, with the two having more than bragging rights on the line.

Indiana Hoosiers – 97.9%

Indiana entered Week 13 as one of three undefeated teams. They left Ohio Stadium with a loss and sparking outside discussion about the deservedness level of being in the College Football Playoff.

ESPN has a clear stance, giving IU a near 98% chance of being included. There is no question for them and as Curt Cignetti said, it’s “so obvious.”

Georgia Bulldogs – 90.8%

Georgia having two losses is what knocks their percentage lower than other teams in this range. One thing going in the Bulldogs’ favor is already securing their place in the SEC Championship game. The opponent is still TBD.

ESPN’s No. 1 SOS on the year is Georgia. Quality wins are littered throughout the schedule and despite two blemishes, have over a 90% chance of dancing.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish – 90.5%

Notre Dame lost early to Northern Illinois but has been flawless since. There is no conference for the Fighting Irish to win, only having USC remaining on the schedule.

Finishing with 11 wins in the regular season would be a first of the Marcus Freeman era. Getting four more is the ultimate goal as Notre Dame is hoping to win a national championship for the first time since 1988.

Miami Hurricanes – 79.4%

Miami has been dubbed the favorite to represent the ACC for quite some time. Even through the Georgia Tech hiccup, ESPN still sees the Hurricanes as such.

One question potentially surrounding Miami — can they get in without a conference title? If they get to Charlotte, SMU will be the opponent. Tuesday’s rankings might tell us if they are playing for a CFP spot against the Mustangs.

Tennessee Volunteers – 74.9%

Entering Week 13, Tennessee was the first team out per the committee’s rankings. Losing to Georgia dropped the Vols low enough to not be included and needing help in front of them.

Well, that help came and chances significantly improved. Chaos in the SEC is going to benefit Tennessee greatly and potentially make them a Vanderbilt win away.

Boise State Broncos – 67.9%

Boise State’s chances of making the CFP are nearly triple that of any other G5 team listed. The Broncos have just one loss of the season, coming against Oregon early in the year.

A spot in the Mountain West Championship has already been locked up but the season finale against Oregon State is just as important. Making sure they get to Selection Sunday without another blemish will be critical.

Remaining teams with College Football Playoff chances

SMU Mustangs – 62.7%
Alabama Crimson Tide – 37.7%
Arizona State Sun Devils – 26.7%
Iowa State Cyclones – 26.6%
BYU Cougars – 26%
Tulane Green Wave – 25.2%
Clemson Tigers – 23.9%
South Carolina Gamecocks – 23.6%
UNLV Rebels – 16.2%
Army Black Knights – 12.5%
Colorado Buffaloes – 6.4%
Ole Miss Rebels – 6.2%
Texas A&M Aggies – 6%
Missouri Tigers – 1.5%