College Football Playoff: ESPN updates predictions for National Championship with surprising results

Families gathered around the country for the holidays this week had plenty to discuss, with the opening round of the College Football Playoff in the rearview mirror. Now, ESPN has provided fans with another talking point, releasing its updated predictions for the remaining eight teams in the CFP.

ESPN’s predictions are based on the SP+ Rankings. The rankings are “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency,” according to ESPN writer Bill Connelly.

Boise State and Penn State will kick off the quarterfinals of the CFP with a showdown on New Year’s Eve. The other three games will take place on New Year’s Day. Here are each team’s chances to win the national title, along with how their odds have changed since last week, according to the SP+.

1. Ohio State — 19.8% (+7.3%)

Despite being the lowest seed remaining in the College Football Playoff, Ohio State has the best odds of winning it all, per SP+. It’s difficult to argue the point after Ohio State’s dominant 42-17 win over Tennessee in the opening round.

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The Buckeyes were dominant at every turn, outpacing the Volunteers in the ground game and recording more than three times as many passing yards. Up next, the Buckeyes will square off against the Oregon Ducks, who defeated them 32-31 earlier this season.

2. Texas — 19.6% (+2.4%)

Texas’ odds of winning it all saw a slight bump after its 38-24 victory over Clemson on Saturday. The Longhorns’ offense looked formidable in the win, particularly their rushing attack, which amassed 292 yards and four touchdowns.

Alas, Texas was far from infallible. Clemson QB Cade Klubnik had a field day against the Longhorns’ defense, racking up 336 passing yards and three touchdowns while only throwing one interception. The Longhorns will face off against Big 12 champion Arizona State on New Year’s Day at 1 p.m. ET.

3. Oregon — 17.6% (-2.8%)

Oregon may still be the No. 1 overall seed in the bracket but it’s no longer the favorite, per the SP+. Perhaps the ranking system simply needs a reminder from the Ducks. After all, it’s been three weeks since the team last took the field, defeating Penn State 45-37 in the Big Ten Championship.

Now, with nearly a month of preparation under its belt, Oregon will aim to secure its second victory over Ohio State this season. Turnovers were the deciding factor in the two teams’ last meeting, with the Ducks squeezing two turnovers out of OSU while committing none themselves.

4. Penn State — 14.5% (+5.6%)

Penn State took its loss against Oregon in stride, bouncing back with a resounding 38-10 win over SMU in the opening round of the CFP. The Nittany Lions’ defense was suffocating against SMU, only allowing 253 total yards and tallying three interceptions, two of which they returned for touchdowns.

The Mustangs didn’t find any more success in the ground game. They recorded just 58 rushing yards on 36 attempts. Penn State will need its defensive front to hold strong as it prepares to clash against arguably the best running back in the nation, Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty.

5. Georgia — 14.2% (-2.4%)

On Dec. 7, Georgia downed Texas for the second time this season — this time, with an SEC Championship on the line. Nonetheless, the SP+ Rankings aren’t convinced, still giving the Bulldogs only the fifth-best odds to be the last team standing.

In fairness, Georgia will be without starting quarterback Carson Beck, who underwent surgery on his right elbow to repair a UCL injury. Gunner Stockton will start in Beck’s place. The sophomore QB completed 12-of-his-16 pass attempts for 71 yards against Texas in the SEC title game.

6. Notre Dame — 13.1% (+4.2%)

Notre Dame’s 27-17 win over Indiana was the closest game in the opening round, but it was still a convincing performance by the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame was a two-headed monster, notching 201 rushing yards and 193 passing yards.

Of course, Notre Dame shouldn’t expect Georgia’s defense to be trampled over so easily. Nonetheless, the Fighting Irish certainly won’t shy away from the showdown, with a chance to get one step closer to winning its first national title since 1924.

7. Boise State — 0.8% (-0.3%)

There’s a massive drop-off in the SP+ Rankings’ confidence after Notre Dame but Boise State hasn’t allowed outside noise to bother it before. The Broncos have taken care of business every time they should have this season and nearly toppled No. 1 Oregon early when given the chance.

With Heisman Trophy finalist Ashton Jeanty in the backfield, it’s impossible to ever entirely count out the Broncos. In Boise State’s win over UNLV in the Mountain West Championship, Jeanty exploded for 209 rushing yards and a touchdown.

8. Arizona State — 0.4% (-0.2%)

Arizona State is bringing up the rear in the rankings but miracles have happened before. In fact, the Sun Devils’ season has been magical already. The media voted for ASU to finish last in the Big 12 preseason media poll, only for the Sun Devils to win the Big 12 title their first season in the league.

Running back Cam Skattebo will be the player to watch for the Sun Devils. He boasts the fifth-most rushing yards in the country this season and has only stepped up his game down the stretch. His team will need him more than ever as they square off against Texas on New Year’s Day.