College Football Playoff expansion: $450 million hinges on key decision

The College Football Playoff expansion decision is at the forefront of the commissioners meetings in Dallas, according to a recent report by Sports Illustrated.

According to the report, there are millions of dollars at stake depending on the final outcome of the commissioners. A final decision could come as soon as next week, or the process could linger for months.

“What’s holding us up is the eight versus 12,” one source told SI.

In June, subcommittee of conference commissioners announced a 12-team playoff format that at first drew overwhelming praise, but the narrative has shifted which has created higher stakes for the final decision.

As SI notes, as many as three league executives (including the ACC) prefer an eight-team format. For commissioners to make a change to the current four-team model, all 11 must agree to the new playoff. They are on a time crunch, having about two months to either settle on a new format to be implemented in 2024 or shelve expansion until 2026. The CFP’s 12-year contract with ESPN runs through the 2025 season but can be amended in its final two years. 

The biggest factor in play? Clearly the potential revenue at stake if the commissioners can’t reach an agreement quickly to extend the College Football Playoff.

Passing on expansion to 12 would be eschewing millions. A 12-team playoff in 2024 and 2025 would bring in a combined $450 million in additional television revenue,. An eight-team expansion would not generate any additional revenue because it does not create more inventory.

Sports Illustrated sources on the College Football Playoff expansion

As of now, it seems unlikely an agreement will be reached next week.

If the commissioners can’t finalize a deal, they will either continue meetings the following week or close down College Football Playoff expansion discussions all together for the foreseeable future.

That would mean a new format, contract and agreement wouldn’t be discussed for more than a year from now and the soonest it would go into effect would be the 2026 campaign.