College Football Playoff: Kirk Herbstreit makes prediction on Alabama, SMU for final spot

A year ago, ESPN and College GameDay analyst Kirk Herbstreit was vilified by FSU fans for making the case for Alabama over an undefeated Seminoles for the final 2023 College Football Playoff spot.

The vitriol he received has made Herbstreit understandably hesitant to make any sort of similar proclamations ahead of today’s College Football Playoff 12-team field reveal on Selection Day.

Still, after some pestering from ESPN’s Mike Greenberg on Sunday NFL Countdown, Herbstreit relented, albeit only slightly, by revealing he expects the 13-member CFP selection committee to stick with ACC runner-up SMU over a three-loss Crimson Tide for the Playoff’s final at-large bid.

“After last year, I’ve learned I have no opinions about anything. I think everybody gets a trophy, everybody gets in. I want no death threats, no punishment for eight months for #FSUTwitter, so I have no opinion on anything, I love everybody. But if you’re asking me what I think will happen – not what I want, I have no agenda, no conspiracy theories – what I think that they’ll probably do is put SMU in for what you’re saying,” Herbstreit told Greenberg early Sunday morning. “I think a team that was three spots ahead of Alabama, that has to go play another game, another data point, and they lose on a last-second field goal.”

SMU lost Saturday night’s ACC Championship game when Clemson kicker Nolan Hauser nailed a 56-yard field goal in the game’s final second to send the 17th-ranked Tigers to the Playoff with a 34-31 win.

Meanwhile, No. 11 Alabama (9-3) sat at home in Tuscaloosa after missing out on an opportunity to defend its 2023 SEC title, as No. 5 Georgia beat No. 2 Texas, 22-19, in overtime to claim the 2024 SEC Championship in Atlanta earlier Saturday.

“It hurts me because what I think you’re going to see is a spin the other direction – nothing against Bama or SMU – I think you’re going to see ADs and coaches say, ‘Wait a second. Bama played this schedule and they had that record. SMU didn’t beat anybody, their best wins are Louisville and Duke, and they’re going to go ahead of a team that played that schedule.’ That’s what you’re going to hear on the other side,” Herbstreit said. “But if you’re asking me what I think the committee will do. I think they’ll put SMU in because of the extra data point that they had to play while they were three spots ahead of Alabama. So I’m guessing SMU, but I have no idea what they’ll do. Keep me out of it. I’m just here to call the games and leave me out of it.”

Comparing resumes of Alabama, SMU before Selection Day

It’s finally Selection Sunday for the College Football Playoff.

So, ahead of those final rankings, ESPN broke down the resume for each of Alabama and SMU on SportsCenter, highlighting four key factors.

Alabama
Strength of Record: 9th
Game Control: 6th
FPI: 6th
Strength of Schedule: 16th

SMU
Strength of Record: 15th
Game Control: 12th
FPI: 13th
Strength of Schedule: 60

SMU, an ACC team, finished the season 11-2, losing the ACC Championship Game on a last-second field goal to Clemson. Their other loss was to a 10-win BYU team early in the season. Now there’s some question about if the loss to Clemson would be enough to drop them out of the Playoff field.

Dan Morrison contributed to this report.