College Football Playoff, New Year's Six bowl game projections: Week 8

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One of the biggest issues with the four-team College Football Playoff format was the not-insignificant matter of there being four spots and five power conferences. This will no longer be a problem next season as the CFP expands to 12 teams and the number of true power conferences is effectively reduced to two.

But for now, it’s still a big deal. Because no matter how I arrange this projection, someone is going to be furious. The teams atop each Power 5 league are undefeated, which means I have one projected champ playing in a basic New Year’s Six bowl instead of in a CFP semifinal.

This week, Florida State draws the short straw. It’s nothing the Seminoles did wrong; they hammered Syracuse. But one of the projected champs has to be left out, and if Washington can complete the grind of the current Pac-12 undefeated, Washington is going to make it in the CFP.

And since I know some of you are asking, I have Penn State in a semifinal because I’ve been picking Penn State to win the Big Ten since the preseason. If Ohio State beats the Nittany Lions on Saturday, then I’ll obviously revise that prediction. But if Penn State wins, the Nittany Lions probably will hang on to that spot until they have to defend it against Michigan on Nov. 11.

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The good news if you’re mad about this projection is that these things tend to work themselves out. All five Power 5 champs won’t finish undefeated. There’s a chance none of them finishes undefeated. That means two things.

These teams will move around and might be replaced by others.
The games that cause those moves will be incredible to watch.

So let’s imagine the possibilities…