College Football Playoff, New Year's Six bowl game projections: Week 6

The following are College Football Playoff and New Year’s Six bowl game projections as we enter week 6 of the 2023 college football season.

College Football Playoffs

Sugar Bowl: 1. Penn State vs. 4. Alabama
Yes, I’m still picking Penn State to win the Big Ten. The good news for Ohio State and Michigan is that they’ll have chances to prove me wrong on the field. So if you’d like to consider this spot reserved for the Big Ten champ, so be it.

If you’d told me two weeks ago that I’d be picking Alabama to win the SEC, I’d have wondered if Georgia and LSU decided to take the rest of the season off. But Georgia continues to look vulnerable and Alabama has looked great twice since coaches decided Jalen Milroe was definitely QB1. Could Georgia turn on the afterburners down the stretch and wind up seeded No. 1? Of course. But for the moment, the SEC feels very much in flux.

Rose Bowl: 2. Texas vs. 3. Florida State
Texas and Oklahoma will meet in the Red River Rivalry as undefeated teams for the first time since 2011. If the Longhorns win, they may still have to beat Oklahoma again to win the Big 12. But if Texas keeps playing the way it has and Alabama keeps playing the way it has, the Longhorns’ resume will put them on or near the top of the pile.

Including Florida State here is a bet that the Pac-12 teams cannibalize themselves. The Seminoles might need to go undefeated to make the CFP, but they certainly have a path to that.

Remaining New Year’s Six bowl games

Peach Bowl: Georgia vs. Michigan
As noted above, Georgia might cut down on the mistakes and wind up in the CFP, so feel free to consider one of these spots reserved for the loser of the SEC title game and the other reserved for the Big Ten team that didn’t win the title but makes for the most appealing TV matchup against the team that loses the SEC title game.

Orange Bowl: North Carolina vs. Ohio State
North Carolina is included here because the Orange Bowl has to take an ACC team, and if Florida State wins the league and makes the CFP, then the Orange will take the next-best ACC team. Will North Carolina be that team? That path seems tougher with Miami looking great and Clemson playing better, but the Tar Heels feel like a much more complete team than last year’s group that made the ACC title game. Ohio State obviously has a chance to play its way into the CFP, but Penn State and Michigan each present their own sets of challenges.

Cotton Bowl: Oregon vs. Notre Dame
The Oregon-Washington result on Oct. 14 may change my mind about the Pac-12 beating itself up in its final year of existence (as we know it). But for now we’re assuming none of those excellent teams make the CFP because of cannibalization. Notre Dame still has a chance to make the CFP as well if it wins out and gets some help, but the Fighting Irish could drop one more and still wind up here.

Fiesta Bowl: Fresno State vs. Washington
Fresno State’s quest to be the top-ranked Group of 5 champ will face its biggest test to date when the Bulldogs visit Wyoming on Saturday. Meanwhile, Washington finally looked something short of unstoppable in a 31-24 win at Arizona on Saturday. That wasn’t as troubling as USC’s near-collapse on defense at Colorado. The Huskies feel more reliable than the Trojans at the moment. Of course, as noted above, the result of Oregon-Washington on Oct. 14 could seriously shake up this projection.