College Football Playoff, New Year’s Six bowl projections: Week 10

For most of this season, you’ve asked me what conference would get left out of the College Football Playoff if all the Power 5 leagues had an undefeated champ. Now, that’s no longer a possibility. Every Big 12 team has a loss.

Oklahoma’s loss at Kansas portends some potential future chaos. A week from now, three teams will sit atop the Big 12 standings with one conference loss each. The Sooners have to play red-hot Oklahoma State in Stillwater on Saturday in what will be the last edition of Bedlam for the foreseeable future. The winner of Kansas-Iowa State next week will have only one conference loss and occupy another spot in the one-loss trio. The winner of Kansas State-Texas will have only one conference loss and occupy the other spot. 

That’s going to set up a wild finish in the league, and it may end with a two-loss Big 12 champ. Meanwhile, in the Pac-12, undefeated Washington keeps surviving. But the Huskies have to play at USC on Saturday. Then they face Utah, Oregon State and Washington State. And if all goes well, they’ll probably see Oregon again in Las Vegas. 

In the ACC, North Carolina’s consecutive losses have opened the door for Louisville to make the conference title game. But the slips by other teams at the top also have lowered the margin for error for first-place Florida State. The Seminoles are fine now, but the ACC might be the least likely league that could produce a one-loss champ that makes the CFP. 

All of this is a long way of saying that if Ohio State keeps winning and then loses in close or controversial fashion to an undefeated Michigan  — or vice versa with Ohio State beating Michigan, but Ohio State’s better non-conference schedule makes the other version more likely — that we could see the Buckeyes and Wolverines both make the CFP for a second consecutive season. A lot can happen between now and then, but that door feels open. 

College Football Playoff

Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Ohio State
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Florida State

New Year’s Six bowls

Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Alabama
Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Oregon
Peach Bowl: Texas vs. Notre Dame
Fiesta Bowl: Air Force vs. Washington