College Football Playoff: Predicting the CFP Top 25, 12-team bracket projection

Conference championship weekend is officially in the books, leaving the College Football Playoff picture much clearer. Of course, the exact rankings will still matter quite a good deal, but we have a good idea what to expect now.

On3 will attempt to project this week’s CFP rankings and 12-team playoff bracket below.

The movement was much less considerable considering the College Football Playoff committee is significantly less likely to ding a team for a loss in a conference title game than a regular season contest.

Regardless, most teams entering Saturday had a pretty clear picture of what they had to do. And the scenario for some was win or be out. For others, it was strictly about seeding.

Let’s dive into the action and begin with our projections.

Here’s our crack at what the final Top 25 College Football Playoff Rankings will look like, plus the 12-team bracket.

Remember: These are two very different things. Just because a team is ranked No. 3 does not mean it is guaranteed the No. 3 seed. We’re projecting the rankings and bracket based on how we believe the committee will arrange both on Sunday.

Note that the highest-ranked conference champions get the Top 4 seeds. The next-highest-ranked champ (likely a Group of 5 representative but not guaranteed) also gets an automatic berth.

The remaining seven bids will go to at-large teams.

So here’s how we project the final College Football Playoff Top 25, 12-team CFB bracket:

The Top 25 College Football Playoff Rankings

1. (13-0) Oregon Ducks
2. (11-2) Georgia Bulldogs +3
3. (11-1) Notre Dame Fighting Irish +1
4. (11-2) Texas Longhorns -2
5. (10-2) Ohio State Buckeyes +1
6. (11-2) Penn State Nittany Lions -3
7. (10-2) Tennessee Volunteers
8. (11-1) Indiana Hoosiers +1
9. (12-1) Boise State Broncos +1
10. (11-2) SMU Mustangs -2
11. (9-3) Alabama Crimson Tide
12. (11-2) Arizona State Sun Devils +3
13. (10-3) Clemson Tigers +4
14. (10-2) Miami Hurricanes -2
15. (9-3) Ole Miss Rebels -2
16. (9-3) South Carolina Gamecocks -2
17. (10-2) BYU Cougars +1
18. (9-3) Missouri Tigers +1
19. (10-3) Iowa State Cyclones -3
20. (9-3) Illinois Fighting Illini +1
21. (9-3) Syracuse Orange +1
22. (9-3) Colorado Buffaloes +1
23. (11-1) Army Black Knights +1
24. (10-3) UNLV Rebels -4
25. (10-2) Memphis Tigers

Note: Movement listed based on last week’s ranking.

The Top 4 Seeds

1. Oregon (Big Ten Champion): The lone unbeaten team in power conference play, Oregon wasted little time proving why it’s the top-ranked team in the country. The Ducks jumped out to a quick 28-10 lead against the Nittany Lions, then closed things out in style to lock up the top overall seed in the College Football Playoff rankings. There should be zero question about Oregon’s ranking come Sunday. A first-round bye has also been secured.

2. Georgia (SEC Champion): The Bulldogs are no stranger to overtime games at this point. Or winning them. The SEC Championship Game against Texas came with its challenges — not the least of which was starting quarterback Carson Beck exiting the game with an injury — but Georgia kept plugging away. A solid defensive showing helped, and the late emergence of running back Trevor Etienne was an even bigger boost. Georgia is now into the playoff with a first-round bye.

3. Boise State (Mountain West Champion): The Broncos did what they need to do on Friday night in the Mountain West Championship Game against UNLV, pulling out a dominant 21-7 victory that was never really in question. That secured a playoff spot for Boise State, with the only question left to answer where that playoff spot came. We’re projecting Boise State remains above both Clemson and Arizona State, earning the No. 3 seed as the third-highest-ranked conference champion.

4. Arizona State (Big 12 Champion): The Sun Devils have left little doubt in the second half of the season, proving to be a formidable opponent with a whole lot of weapons. That was evident in a Big 12 Championship Game drubbing of Iowa State. But how far up the rankings the Sun Devils can climb will be interesting to watch. We have them stopping just short of leaping in front of Alabama, but remaining in front of Clemson, which earns them a first-round bye as a top-four seed.

The At-Larges

5. Notre Dame: The final weekend saw the Fighting Irish at home, not needing to play in any conference title games to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff. At 11-1 and ranked No. 4 in the penultimate CFP rankings, Notre Dame is assured of a berth and is a virtual lock for a home playoff game. Anything else would be jaw-dropping at this point.

6. Texas: The Longhorns battled hard against the Bulldogs, eventually pushing the game to overtime. But it will feel like a missed opportunity for Texas. Quarterback Quinn Ewers struggled in the contest, and the Longhorns just couldn’t quite get into sync. The offense was rolling early but failed to convert opportunities into points at a high enough rate. That proved costly. Still, Texas shouldn’t fall too far and should still get the chance to host a first-round playoff game.

7. Ohio State: The Buckeyes made things complicated for themselves when they lost to Michigan in the regular-season finale. But at No. 6 last week, the Buckeyes are still going to be in the field in great position. The resume is pretty good, with wins over top-10 Penn State and Indiana squads. And one of the two losses is to Oregon by a point… not a result that should hurt you that much. So Ohio State should get to host a game.

8. Penn State: Penn State did its best to get back into the contest against Oregon, but it fell behind by so much so fast that it was always going to be an uphill climb. Eventually the Nittany Lions just ran out of steam. Still, because it was a loss in a conference championship game the fallout should be relatively mitigated. We’re projecting Penn State as a first-round playoff host, but it could easily slip a little too far and be traveling on opening weekend. All depends on how the committee sees things.

9. Tennessee: Like Ohio State, Tennessee was home this weekend, relegated to watching others play for conference championships. Like Ohio State, Tennessee is comfortably in the field. The important thing to watch here is whether there’s any chance Tennessee and Penn State flip spots. It seems improbable, but that would be the difference potentially in hosting versus traveling in the first round.

10. Indiana: The Hoosiers couldn’t quite pull off the coup they needed to get to the Big Ten Championship Game, but ranked No. 9 in the last College Football Playoff rankings they should be just fine on Sunday. Indiana likely will have to travel for the first round of action, but, despite Curt Cignetti’s protestations, that should be perfectly acceptable for the Hoosiers, who have engineered a remarkable season.

11. SMU: The Mustangs nearly did the improbable by overturning a 24-7 halftime deficit, but the comeback bid alone might have been enough to save the season. SMU is projected in as our final team in these rankings, narrowly avoiding a drop past Alabama. It’ll be a sweaty Selection Sunday, though, because it’s not guaranteed.

12. Clemson (ACC Champion): It took almost no time for Clemson to jump out to a big lead in the ACC title game against SMU, and it sure looked like the Tigers knew the stakes and were going to make sure they didn’t miss their opportunity. Well, job done. The Tigers are into the College Football Playoff field, likely as the final seed based on their three losses and how far down the rankings they were entering conference championship weekend.

First Four Out: Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss, South Carolina

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Penn State
Winner faces No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl

No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Notre Dame
Winner faces No. 4 Arizona State in the Peach Bowl

No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Ohio State
Winner faces No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl

No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Texas
Winner faces No. 3 Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl